Don't fit the current census against forecast days past the peak

Author: PhilMiller

src/penn_chime/models.py

@@ -182,7 +182,8 @@ def get_loss(self) -> float:
 
 
 def get_argmin_ds(census_df: pd.DataFrame, current_hospitalized: float) -> float:
-    losses_df = (census_df.hospitalized - current_hospitalized) ** 2.0
+    peak_day = census_df.hospitalized.argmax()
+    losses_df = (census_df.hospitalized[:peak_day] - current_hospitalized) ** 2.0
     return losses_df.argmin()