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paper/main.tex

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@@ -202,7 +202,7 @@ \section*{Introduction}
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experiments, can begin to investigate the distinction between memorization and
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understanding, often by training participants to distinguish arbitrary or
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random features in otherwise meaningless categorized stimuli~\citep{ReilEtal82,
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Este86a, Este86b, GlucEtal02, AshbMadd05, HulbNorm15}. However the objective of
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Este86a, Este86b, GlucEtal02, AshbMadd05, HulbNorm15}. However, the objective of
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real-world training, or learning from life experiences more generally, is often
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to develop new knowledge that may be applied in \textit{useful} ways in the
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future. In this sense, the gap between modern learning theories and modern
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question correctly or incorrectly. We developed a statistical approach to test
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this claim. For each quiz question a participant answered, in turn, we used
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Equation~\ref{eqn:prop} to estimate their knowledge at the given question's
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embedding space coordinate based on other questions that participant answered
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embedding-space coordinate based on other questions that participant answered
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on the same quiz. We repeated this for all participants, and for each of the
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three quizzes. Then, separately for each quiz, we fit a generalized linear
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mixed model (GLMM) with a logistic link function to explain the probability of
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correctly answering a question as a function of estimated knowledge for its
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embedding coordinate, while accounting for random variation among participants
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and questions (see \nameref{subsec:glmm}). To assess the predictive value of
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the knowledge estimates, we compared each GLMM to an analogous (i.e., nested)
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``null'' model that did not consider estimated knowledge using parametric
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bootstrap likelihood-ratio tests.
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embedding coordinate, while accounting for varied effects of individual
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participants and questions (see \nameref{subsec:glmm}). To assess the predictive
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value of the knowledge estimates, we compared each GLMM to an analogous (i.e.,
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nested) ``null'' model that assumed these estimates carried no predictive information using parametric bootstrap likelihood-ratio tests.
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\begin{figure}[tp]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.75\textwidth]{figs/predict-knowledge-questions}
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\caption{\textbf{Predicting success on held-out questions using estimated
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knowledge.} We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to model the
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likelihood of correctly answering a quiz question as a function of
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probability of correctly answering a quiz question as a function of
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estimated knowledge for its embedding coordinate (see
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\nameref{subsec:glmm}). Separately for each quiz (column), we examined this
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relationship based on three different sets of knowledge estimates:
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about the \textit{other} lecture (``Across-lecture'';
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Fig.~\ref{fig:predictions}, bottom rows). This test was intended to assess the
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\textit{generalizability} of our approach by asking whether our predictions
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could extend across the content areas of the two lectures. When computing these
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knowledge estimates, we used a rebalancing procedure to ensure that (for a given
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participant and quiz) the knowledge estimates for correctly and incorrectly
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answered questions were computed from the same proportion of correctly answered
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questions (see~\nameref{subsec:glmm}).
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could extend across the content areas of the two lectures. When estimating
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participants' knowledge, we used a rebalancing procedure to ensure that (for a
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given participant and quiz) their knowledge estimates for correctly and
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incorrectly answered questions were computed from the same underlying proportion
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of correctly answered questions (see~\nameref{subsec:glmm}).
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When we fit a GLMM to estimates of participants' knowledge for each Quiz~1
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question based on all other Quiz~1 questions, we found that higher estimated
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p < 0.001$) and again for Quiz~3 ($OR = 37.409,\ 95\%\ \textnormal{CI} =
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[10.425,\ 107.145],\ \lambda_{LR} = 40.948,\ p < 0.001$). Taken together, these
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results suggest that our knowledge estimates can reliably predict participants'
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performance on individual questions when aggregated across all quiz content.
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performance on individual questions when they incorporate information from all
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(other) quiz content.
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We observed a similar set of results when we restricted our estimates of
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participants' knowledge for questions about each lecture to consider only
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questions incorrectly, and all but five participants (out of 50) answered two or
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fewer questions incorrectly. (This was the only subset of questions about either
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lecture, across all three quizzes, for which this was true.) Because of this,
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when we held out one incorrectly answered \textit{Four Fundamental Forces}
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question from a given participant's Quiz~3 responses and estimated their
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knowledge at its embedding coordinate using the remaining \textit{Four
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Fundamental Forces} questions they answered, for 90\% of participants, that
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estimate leveraged information about at most a single other question they were
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\textit{not} able to correctly answer. This broad homogeneity in participants'
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success on questions used to estimate their knowledge may have hurt our ability
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to accurately characterize the specific (and by Quiz~3, relatively few) aspects
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of the lecture content they did \textit{not} know about. Taken together, these
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results suggest that our knowledge estimates can reliably distinguish between
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questions about different content covered by a single lecture, provided there is
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sufficient diversity in participants' quiz responses to extract meaningful
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information about both what they know and what they do not know.
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when we held out one incorrectly answered
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\textit{Four Fundamental Forces}-related question from a given participant's
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Quiz~3 responses and estimated their knowledge at its embedding coordinate using
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the remaining \textit{Four Fundamental Forces}-related questions they answered,
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for 90\% of participants, that estimate leveraged information about at most a
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single other question they were \textit{not} able to correctly answer. This
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broad homogeneity in participants' success on questions used to estimate their
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knowledge may have hurt our ability to accurately characterize the specific (and
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by Quiz~3, relatively few) aspects of the lecture content they did \textit{not}
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know about. Taken together, these results suggest that our knowledge estimates
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can reliably distinguish between questions about different content covered by a
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single lecture, provided there is sufficient diversity in participants' quiz
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responses to extract meaningful information about both what they know and what
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they do not know.
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Finally, when we estimated participants' knowledge for each question about one
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lecture using their performance on questions (from the same quiz) about the
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away from $x$ in the embedding space, how does the likelihood that the
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participant knows about the content at a given location ``fall off'' with
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distance? Conversely, suppose the participant instead answered that same
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question \textit{in}correctly. Again, as we move farther away from $x$ in the
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question \textit{incorrectly}. Again, as we move farther away from $x$ in the
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embedding space, how does the likelihood that the participant does \textit{not}
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know about a coordinate's content change with distance? We reasoned that,
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assuming our embedding space is capturing something about how individuals
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\subsubsection*{Statistics}
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All of the statistical tests performed in our study were two-sided. The 95\%
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confidence intervals we reported for each correlation were estimated by
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generating 10,000 bootstrap distributions of correlation coefficients by
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confidence intervals we reported for each correlation were estimated from
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bootstrap distributions of 10,000 correlation coefficients obtained by
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sampling (with replacement) from the observed data.
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\subsubsection*{Constructing text embeddings of multiple lectures and questions}\label{subsec:topic-modeling}
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discover a set of $k$ ``topics'' or ``themes.'' Formally, each topic is
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defined as a distribution of weights over words in the model's vocabulary
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(i.e., the union of all unique words, across all documents, excluding ``stop
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words.''). Conceptually, each topic is intended to give larger weights to words
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words''). Conceptually, each topic is intended to give larger weights to words
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that are semantically related (as inferred from their tendency to co-occur in
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the same document). After fitting a topic model, each document in the training
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set, or any \textit{new} document that contains at least some of the words in
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\end{equation}
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and where $\mathrm{mincorr}$ and $\mathrm{maxcorr}$ are the minimum and maximum
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correlations between any lecture timepoint and question, taken over all
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timepoints in the given lecture, and all five questions \textit{about} that
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timepoints in the given lecture and all questions \textit{about} that
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lecture appearing on the given quiz. We also define $f(s, \Omega)$ as the
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$s$\textsuperscript{th} topic vector from the set of topic vectors $\Omega$.
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Here $t$ indexes the set of lecture topic vectors $L$, and $i$ and $j$ index
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the topic vectors of questions $Q$ used to estimate the knowledge trace. Note
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that ``correct'' denotes the set of indices of the questions the participant
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answered correctly on the given quiz.
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that ``$\mathrm{correct}$'' denotes the set of indices of the questions the
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participant answered correctly on the given quiz.
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Intuitively, $\mathrm{ncorr}(x, y)$ is the correlation between two topic
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vectors (e.g., the topic vector $x$ for one timepoint in a lecture and the
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topic vector $y$ for one question), normalized by the minimum and maximum
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correlations (across all timepoints $t$ and questions $j$) to range between 0
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and 1, inclusive. Equation~\ref{eqn:prop} then computes the weighted average
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proportion of correctly answered questions about the content presented at
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timepoint $t$, where the weights are given by the normalized correlations
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topic vector $y$ for one question on a quiz), normalized by the minimum and
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maximum correlations (across all timepoints $t$ and questions $j$) to range
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between 0 and 1, inclusive. Equation~\ref{eqn:prop} then computes the weighted
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average proportion of correctly answered questions about the content presented
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at timepoint $t$, where the weights are given by the normalized correlations
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between timepoint $t$'s topic vector and the topic vectors for each question.
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The normalization step (i.e., using $\mathrm{ncorr}$ instead of the raw
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correlations) ensures that every question contributes some non-negative amount

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