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minor cleanup to fig 6 across-lecture results
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paper/main.pdf

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paper/main.tex

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@@ -676,13 +676,14 @@ \section*{Results}
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Our primary assumption in building our knowledge estimates is that knowledge
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about a given concept is similar to knowledge about other concepts that are
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nearby in the embedding space. However, our analyses in Figure~\ref{fig:topics}
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and Supplementary Figure~\topicWeights~show that the embeddings of content from
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the two lectures are largely distinct. Therefore any predictive power of the
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knowledge estimates must overcome large distances in the embedding space. To
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put this in concrete terms, this test requires predicting participants'
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performance on individual highly specific questions about the formation of
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stars, using each participants' responses to just five multiple choice
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questions about the fundamental forces of the universe (and vice versa).
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and Supplementary Figure~\topicWeights\ show that the embeddings of content from
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the two lectures (and of their associated quiz questions) are largely distinct
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from each other. Therefore, any predictive power of these across-lecture
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knowledge estimates must overcome large distances in the embedding space. To put
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this in concrete terms, this test requires predicting participants' performance
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on individual, highly specific questions about the formation of stars from their
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responses to just five multiple-choice questions about the fundamental forces of
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the universe (and vice versa).
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We found that, before viewing either lecture (i.e., on Quiz~1), participants'
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abilities to answer \textit{Four Fundamental Forces}-related questions could
@@ -706,36 +707,35 @@ \section*{Results}
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Stars} questions: $OR = 11.294,\ 95\%\ \textnormal{CI} = [1.375,\ 47.744],\
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\lambda_{LR} = 10.396,\ p < 0.001$; \textit{Birth of Stars} questions given
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\textit{Four Fundamental Forces} questions: $OR = 7.302,\ 95\%\ \textnormal{CI}
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= [1.077,\ 44.879],\ \lambda_{LR} = 4.708,\ p = 0.038$). Taken together, our
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= [1.077,\ 44.879],\ \lambda_{LR} = 4.708,\ p = 0.038$). Taken together, these
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results suggest that our ability to form estimates solely across different
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content areas is more limited than our ability to form estimates that
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incorporate responses to questions across both content areas (as in
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Fig.~\ref{fig:predictions}, ``All questions'') or within a single content area (as
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in Fig.~\ref{fig:predictions}, ``Within-lecture''). However, if participants have recently
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received some training on both content areas, the knowledge estimates appear to be informative
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even across content areas.
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incorporate responses to questions from both content areas (as in
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Fig.~\ref{fig:predictions}, ``All questions'') or within a single content area
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(as in Fig.~\ref{fig:predictions}, ``Within-lecture''). However, if participants
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have recently received some training on both content areas, the knowledge
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estimates appear to be informative even across content areas.
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We speculate that these ``Across-lecture'' results might relate to some of our
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earlier work on the nature of semantic representations~\citep{MannKaha12}. In
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that work, we asked whether semantic similarities could be captured through
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behavioral measures, even if participants' ``true'' internal representations
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differed from the embeddings used to \textit{characterize} participants'
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behaviors. We found that mismatches between someone's internal representation
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of a set of concepts and the representation used to characterize their
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behaviors can lead to underestimates of how semantically driven their behaviors
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are. Along similar lines, we suspect that in our current study, participants'
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conceptual representations may initially differ from the representations
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learned by our topic model. (Although the topic models are still
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\textit{related} to participants' initial internal representations; otherwise
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we would have found that knowledge estimates derived from Quiz 1 and 2
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responses would have no predictive power in the other tests we conducted.)
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After watching both lectures, however, participants' internal representations
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may become more aligned with the embeddings used to estimate their knowledge
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(since those embeddings were trained on the lecture transcripts). This could
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help explain why the knowledge estimates derived from Quizzes 1 and 2 (before
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both lectures had been watched) do not reliably predict performance across
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content areas, whereas estiamtes derived from Quiz 3 \textit{do} reliably
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predict performance across content areas.
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earlier work on the nature of semantic representations~\citep{MannKaha12}. In
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that work, we asked whether semantic similarities could be captured through
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behavioral measures, even if participants' ``true'' internal representations
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differed from the embeddings used to \textit{characterize} their behaviors. We
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found that mismatches between an individual's internal representation of a set
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of concepts and the representation used to characterize their behaviors can lead
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to underestimates of how semantically driven those behaviors are. Along similar
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lines, we suspect that in our current study, participants' conceptual
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representations may initially differ from the representations learned by our
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topic model. (Although the topic model's representations are still
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\textit{related} to participants' initial internal representations; otherwise we
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would have found that knowledge estimates derived from Quizzes~1 and 2 had no
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predictive power in the other tests we conducted.) After watching both lectures,
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however, participants' internal representations may become more aligned with the
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embeddings used to estimate their knowledge (since those embeddings were trained
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on the lectures' transcripts). This could help explain why the knowledge
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estimates derived from Quizzes~1 and 2 (before both lectures had been watched)
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do not reliably predict performance across content areas, whereas estimates
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derived from Quiz~3 do.
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That the knowledge predictions derived from the text embedding space reliably
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distinguish between held-out correctly versus incorrectly answered questions

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