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docs/source/technical/reservoir_model.rst

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We have two core modes of operation: rule-curve scheduling and dispatch-driven re-operation:
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* **Rule-curve scheduling**: Operators follow seasonal guidelines (rule curves) to choose releases to track a daily storage target while satisfying mass balance, spill, and min/max flow constraints. It has a deterministic target, such as daily storage or level targets derived from historical rule curves. Our optimization then deviations from the target path.
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* **Rule-curve scheduling**: Operators follow seasonal guidelines (rule curves) to choose releases to track a daily storage target while satisfying mass balance, spill, and min/max flow constraints. It has a deterministic target, such as daily storage or level targets derived from historical rule curves. Our optimization then minimizes the deviation from the target path.
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* **Dispatch-driven re-operation**: We invert a power‐dispatch target into release decisions. We adapt reservoir releases to meet daily or hourly power-generation targets from system dispatch, while still honoring mass balance and environmental rules. Our optimization there for solve for release sequence that minimizes mismatch between computed hydropower and dispatch targets, subject to mass balance, ramp-rate bounds, ecologoical minima, and turbine & grid limits. This is done based on hydropower physics, where we calculate the power :math:`P_t` from :math:`\eta` the turbine efficiency, :math:`\rho` the water density, :math:`g` the gravitational constant, :math:`H_t` the hydraulic head (water level above turbine center), and :math:`Q^{turbine}_t` the water flow through the turbine:
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:math:`P_t = \eta \cdot \rho \cdot g \cdot H_t \cdot Q^{turbine}_t`
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To protect downstream ecosystems, maintain habitat, and prevent fish stranding, operations must respect minimum flow requirements and limit daily ramp‐rates (hydropeaking):
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* Minimum enviornmental flow: We determine the minimum amount of water that should be released from a reservoir to maintain the health of the downstream ecosystem. The minimum flow is set at different percentages of the inflow, subject to how the inflow compares with the mean annual flow.
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* Hydropeaking: Hydropeaking is the rapid and frequent changes in river flow to optimize hydropower operation. We adjust the release based on a hydropeaking factor and the minimum environmental flow, , ensuring daily changes remain within a percentage of capacity.
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* Hydropeaking: Hydropeaking is the rapid and frequent changes in river flow to optimize hydropower operation. We adjust the release based on a hydropeaking factor and the minimum environmental flow, ensuring daily changes remain within a percentage of capacity.
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**Cascade Coordination & Basin-Level Aggregation**
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docs/source/technical/time_series_models.rst

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* N. Elamin, M. Fukushige. Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions. *Energy*. Volume 165, Part B, 2018, Pages 257-268, ISSN 0360-5442.
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* E. Eskandarnia and M. AlHammad, "Predication of future energy consumption using SARIMAX," *3rd Smart Cities Symposium (SCS 2020)*, 2020, pp. 657-662.
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* S. Vagropoulos, G. Chouliaras, E. Kardakos, C. Simoglou and A. Bakirtzis, "Comparison of SARIMAX, SARIMA, modified SARIMA and ANN-based models for short-term PV generation forecasting," *2016 IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON)*, Leuven, Belgium, 2016, pp. 1-6.
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* S. Vagropoulos, G. Chouliaras, E. Kardakos, C. Simoglou and A. Bakirtzis, "Comparison of SARIMAX, SARIMA, modified SARIMA and ANN-based models for short-term PV generation forecasting," *2016 IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON)*, Leuven, Belgium, 2016, pp. 1-6.

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