🏔🐘 Statistical approach of mode locking business cycles

[hyunjimoon]

The purpose of this post is to summarize our exploration from

• Does use of flow measurements actually solve the autocorrelation problem? #127 (reply in thread)
• 🦇 BAT: Bayesian-estimate Adjustment Time in Nonlinear dynamic for decision #19 (comment)
• https://metasd.com/2011/07/the-economic-long-wave/ and reference paper by John
• Inventory management casestudy #17, 📦 [Inven model] effect of # of estimated parameter + procession noise #92

From John's Business cycles and long waves (behavioral disequilibrium perspective)

• long wave is generated endogenously by the investment behavior of the capital producing sector, and persists without exogenous excitation
• interaction between modes may be strong enough to lock them together such that they have commensurate periods
• positive feedback processes arising from macroeconomic couplings between firms and among the production, consumption, financial, and government sectors explains how the long wave can arise