👺 darwin prior for pinocchio productization

[hyunjimoon]

How to design a robust prior, swaying with the wind, but doesn't break? = controlling variation enough to sway with soft constraints, but not to the level of breaking strong constraints.

Pinocchio nose can break/worn out from its adventure (swaying with variation), but honest Pinocchio shouldn't have a longer nose than liar Pinocchio. These two ambivalent functions should be embedded in darwin prior which analyze:
a. theta VS 1/theta
b. PERT VS N(mu, .1mu) prior
c. modeler's knowledge of prior tightness

how b affects a, how c affects b