Desirability collected form Bayes.Entrep conference

[hyunjimoon]

notes in https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QnYcHX8IIj3CLsrpJJO5DDTuakSHXMwC6ijnp1EId8o/edit?usp=sharing

11:00am: What is Bayesian Entrepreneurship?

Lead (Scott Stern); Discussants (Todd Zenger, Elena Novelli, Ashish Arora); Moderator (Alfonso Gambardella) 12:30pm: LUNCH 1:30pm: Priors in Entrepreneurial Decision-Making

Lead (Arnaldo Camuffo); Discussants (Tom Astebro, Susan Cohen); Moderator (Joshua Gans) 3:00pm: BREAK 3:30pm: Entrepreneurial Experimentation and Learning

Lead (Alfonso Gambardella); Discussants (Josh Krieger, Hyunjin Kim); Moderator (Erin Scott) 5:00pm: Fireside Chat: Andrea Pignataro, Founder and CEO, ION Group

Moderator: Scott Stern 6:30pm: DINNER at Batifol, 291 Third St, Cambridge, MA 02142

Saturday, 23 rd March, 2024

8:00am: BREAKFAST 8:30am: Fireside Chat: Noubar Afeyan, Founder and CEO, Flagship Pioneering Moderator: Fiona Murray 9:30pm: BREAK 10:00am: Entrepreneurial Persuasion

Lead (Joshua Gans); Discussants (Ramana Nanda, Yael Hochberg); Moderator (Arnaldo Camuffo) 12:00pm: LUNCH plus Entrepreneurial Pedagogy and Practice

Lead (Erin Scott); Discussants (Chiara Spina, Andrea Coali); Moderator (Scott Stern)

[hyunjimoon]

this conference's goal is to fill the following table. quotes are from BayesEntrep white paper

Prob.Comp X BayesEntrep	theory 🟩 (desirability)	tool 🔴 (tech fbl)	input	output
🧬 genome	statistics X probabilistic computing - Bayesian Learning Approach to Entrepreneurial Strategy (s7.1)	bayesDB - AI-assisted inferential statistics: “what genetic markers, if any, predict increased risk of suicide given a PTSD diagnosis? and how confident can we be in the amount of increase, given uncertainty due to statistical sampling and the large number of possible alternative explanations?”
🗺️ map	business - knowledge transfer/reconfiguration between industries (with different clockspeed and hardwareness, charlie's expertise	(JB's help - visualization + evaluation) - urop (due 03/25)
🧭 compass	simulation X entrepreneurial decision making - "entrepreneurs change their prior beliefs over (1) new states that may emerge when they obtain awareness about previously unforeseen actions or consequences and (2) over previously null states that had been previously considered as not possible. Reverse Bayesianism enables entrepreneurs to adjust the state space they envision (their theory/opportunity) for unknown events. This process is consistent with the methodic doubt of scientists who acknowledge there might be other explanations/theories to what they study, which they do not know (Camuffo et al., 2023b). We can think of “Reverse Bayesianism” as “forward-looking” Bayesianism. - Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making as Bayesian Learning (s7.2)

[hyunjimoon]

Noubeur:

• systemic mutation and cross over
• past causal for prediction

Danny Kim:

• scaling up matters more in manufacturing
• knowledge transfer is problematic

Mattias:

• scaling up taxanomy as two level (collecting data) - first is AGCT, second is subactions based on Mattias' paper

Dan:

• find situation where joshua's model doesn't work (depenedence on inventory or monetary)
• do I compete on landscape one or landscape two? I got a sample from wetlands, do some landscape, and then then I choose one and then I didn't I tried to
• how does optimal experimentation like differ as a function of my prior