2024 mobility venture class + MMI seminar

[hyunjimoon]

[hyunjimoon]

Concept	Key Idea	Challenges	Opportunities	Examples
1. 🔄 Mobility is a system	Interconnected stakeholders with competing incentives	Coordinating diverse actors	Creating a safe, clean, inclusive system	Traffic management systems integrating multiple modes of transport
2. 🏗️ Infrastructure shapes mobility	Built environment determines mobility patterns	Changing existing infrastructure	Designing for efficient, sustainable mobility	15-minute cities, bike lanes, transit-oriented development
3. 🧠 Behavior and norms are critical	Social expectations significantly influence mobility choices	Changing ingrained habits	Encouraging sustainable mobility behaviors	Car-free Sundays, promoting public transit use
4. 💰 Mobility is expensive	High costs for both individuals and society	Reducing financial burden, especially for lower-income groups	Developing cost-effective, shared solutions	Congestion pricing, subsidized public transit
5. 🔧 Technology is not a panacea	Tech solutions often overhyped in short-term	Managing expectations, dealing with edge cases	Long-term transformative potential	Autonomous vehicles, electric scooters
6. 🧩 Integration is the holy grail	Seamless multimodal transportation	Coordinating across different systems and stakeholders	Creating efficient, user-friendly mobility ecosystems	Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) platforms
7. ⚠️ Beware of induced demand	Improved mobility can lead to increased usage	Managing unintended consequences	Balancing improved access with sustainability	Highway expansions leading to more traffic
8. 🏙️ Cities are shaping their own future	Proactive urban mobility policies	Balancing various stakeholder interests	Creating livable, sustainable urban environments	Car-free zones, data-sharing requirements for mobility providers

[hyunjimoon]

MMI reflection

Based on Raquel's talk on her description of technology, competitive landscape, relation with investors, I used this opportunity to apply some framework from Mobility venture class (that jinhua, john, bhuvan teach) to Waabi's case. I focused especially on capitalization.
Mobility ventures require specialized capitalization strategies due to their unique sector characteristics. These companies navigate complex stakeholder networks and evolving regulatory landscapes. (Causal complexity) Their business models demand constant innovation to keep pace with rapidly changing technologies and user behaviors. (Dynamic decisions) Valuation hinges on the ability to anticipate and mitigate rare, high-impact events. (Estimation of rare events) Accurate value assessment requires processing diverse data types, from regulatory texts to performance metrics. (Forms of data) Despite short-term hype, these ventures promise long-term transformative impact, necessitating adaptable equity allocation strategies.
Waabi exemplifies these mobility sector traits in autonomous trucking. Its Generative AI technology interacts with intricate logistics systems and regulations, demanding a holistic approach to development and capitalization. (Causal complexity) The Waabi World simulator showcases rapid adaptation capabilities, directly impacting valuation in a fast-changing industry. (Dynamic decisions) This technology models rare, critical scenarios, enhancing safety and influencing investor confidence. (Estimation of rare events) By processing varied data in simulations, Waabi provides tangible metrics for valuation. (Forms of data) Balancing short-term expectations with long-term potential, Waabi's approach requires sophisticated equity strategies adaptable to its transformative potential and complex risk profile.

[hyunjimoon]

w2 match to pitch

students pitched seven topics:

1. Last Mile, 2.Public Transit, 3.Traffic Flow, 4.Community Safety, 5. information asymmetry (municipality, taxpayer, companies), 6. land use/design, 7. electrification of mobility

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Compare This To My New Notes:
“Filters to Prioritize – In Order:”
– Personal: It won’t go away; your motivation to get it done and go on this
long and hard journey is definitely worth it; I will be proud to be
associated with this and could see myself at least dedicating 5 plus years of
my life to making it a reality
– Market Opportunity: Big enough to make a difference that both motivates
you and others
– Product Viability: It is possible to have a solution for this vision
– Execution Degree of Difficulty: What is the risk in executing this if the
product works? How many things have to go right for it to become real? Is
that really viable?
– Competitive Advantage: If I create this market, will I have something
unique that will allow me to make this new venture sustainable (Note: for
new ventures that are very highly weighted on the social dimensions, this
is less important)
– Resource Capture: Can you get the people and other resources you need
to get the job done of creating a sustainable new venture?
50

[hyunjimoon]

interview with bettermount's first investor seem to have different read on better mount's failure (hubris, relation with oem/automakers, geopolitics) compared to choose_tech.pdf

[hyunjimoon]

eight teams were prompted to do casestudy on: 2ev (chargepoint), 1av (motional), 1micromobility (ofo-bikeshare), 1insurance (lexisnexis), 3publictransit (remix, leap transit, via)

Company (can be any stage - startup, failed, established, legacy etc. ) has to be related to the mobility sector in some way
What is the product or service?
Who is the customer?
Has the company succeeded – why or why not?
Did the company pivot its strategy?
What were the challenges that the leadership confronted?

four of them seem to succeed in pivot

• chargepoint was criticized didn't incentivize to maintain equipment (only installment)

[hyunjimoon]

mobility failure log

• e-scooter; Challenges in the Shared Electric Scooter Industry cld

[hyunjimoon]

mmi - public transport is an investment, not a cost

jim shared his thoughts on why transit is a public good opposed to economist's narrow classification of excludability and rivaly : https://commonwealthbeacon.org/opinion/is-transit-a-public-good/

[hyunjimoon]

xiaodi hou, ceo founder of tusimple and bot.auto. (av truck, one of my target customer)'s emphasis on AV industry as asset heavy hence the importance of operations (Transcript)

henry liu, director of mcity's proposal of probabilistic safety (Transcript)

[hyunjimoon]

from transcript, i liked jinhua's framing as technology, business model, industry, entrepreneurship. i followed up to learn more about the contrast on "cto at sail" vs "ceo at nail".

The discussion covered the technology, business model, industry health, and entrepreneurship in autonomous trucking. Key points included the use of LIDAR, radar, and cameras in autonomous trucks, with LIDAR being crucial for near-periphery distance estimation. The business model emphasized reducing operating costs through self-operation and the challenges of customer acquisition. Regulatory gaps, such as emergency response and construction zone communication, were highlighted. The conversation also addressed the impact of autonomous vehicles on job markets, with a projected 80,000 driver shortage by 2030. The importance of a high-resolution vision and realistic growth plans was underscored.

Transcript

https://otter.ai/u/M-WCo7qGGsiJGAWAftvsb8MRT7I?view=transcript

Action Items
[ ] Engage with Professor Sebastian during and after the class.
[ ] Complete the QR code activity before the class.
[ ] Prepare for the Monday meeting with Jenny Berlin.
Outline
Introduction and Case Study Setup
Speaker 1 introduces the Martin's right case study and mentions that Jenny Berlin, co-founder of the company, will join on Monday.
Speaker 1 instructs new attendees to scan a QR code and answer a business model question related to autonomous trucking.
Speaker 1 introduces Professor Sebastian from Tech University of Munich, who is visiting and will participate in the discussion.
Speaker 2, Professor Sebastian, introduces himself and his background in innovation and public policy, particularly in the field of mobility.
Technology Discussion: Foundational Models and Sensor Usage
Speaker 1 outlines the four parts of the discussion: technology, business model, industry health, and entrepreneurship.
Speaker 1 and Speaker 3 discuss the debate on using LIDAR, camera-only systems, and end-to-end models in autonomous vehicles.
Speaker 3 explains the importance of information theory and the trade-offs in using LIDAR and other sensors.
Speaker 3 shares experiences with LIDAR costs and the decision to use LIDAR in their current company, Father Auto.
Business Model Discussion: Cost Per Mile and Profitability
Speaker 1 transitions to the business model discussion, emphasizing the importance of cost per mile and profitability.
Speaker 3 presents a slide on market pain points and the current situation in autonomous trucking.
Speaker 3 criticizes the focus on demos and fundraising without a concrete plan for profitability.
Speaker 3 discusses different business models, including software as a service, hardware as a service, and transportation as a service.
Challenges in the Autonomous Trucking Industry
Speaker 3 highlights the challenges in the autonomous trucking industry, including the need for a concrete plan for profitability.
Speaker 3 emphasizes the importance of reducing operating costs and the challenges of customer acquisition.
Speaker 3 discusses the need for a long-term vision and the importance of focusing on first principles.
Speaker 3 shares insights on the importance of maintaining a loyal customer base and the challenges of fundraising in the autonomous driving industry.
Regulatory Framework and Industry Health
Speaker 1 asks about the regulatory framework and what is missing for the industry to thrive.
Speaker 3 identifies the need for regulations on emergency situations and construction zones.
Speaker 3 emphasizes the importance of IoT and V2X communication for addressing these regulatory gaps.
Speaker 3 discusses the role of the US Department of Transportation (DOT) and the need for collaboration with local governments.
Liability and Job Replacement Concerns
Speaker 1 raises the issue of liability and how to allocate responsibility in autonomous driving.
Speaker 3 explains that autonomous vehicles have lower accident rates due to the absence of driver fatigue and DUI.
Speaker 3 discusses the challenges of job replacement and the need to envision a better future for humanity.
Speaker 3 highlights the potential benefits of autonomous driving, including reduced food waste and faster transportation.
Entrepreneurship and Operational Strategy
Speaker 1 asks Speaker 3 to share his experience on entrepreneurship and lessons learned from his time at two simple.
Speaker 3 emphasizes the importance of understanding all aspects of running a company, including finance, legal, marketing, and HR.
Speaker 3 shares the importance of taking risks and not letting traditional constraints stop innovation.
Speaker 3 discusses the need for a high-resolution vision and the importance of realistic planning.
Q&A Session: Sustainability and Job Replacement
Speaker 8 questions the sustainability of autonomous driving and its impact on consumerism.
Speaker 3 argues that autonomous driving can reduce the use of airplanes and save fuel, making it a sustainable solution.
Speaker 8 raises concerns about job replacement, and Speaker 3 explains that the impact on the job market is minimal.
Speaker 3 emphasizes the importance of focusing on the long-term vision and the potential benefits of autonomous driving.
Scaling Strategy and Market Opportunities
Speaker 9 asks about the scaling strategy and critical factors for expansion.
Speaker 3 emphasizes the importance of focusing on one thing and not spreading resources too thin.
Speaker 3 discusses the challenges of raising money in the autonomous driving industry and the need for a compelling vision.
Speaker 3 highlights the importance of identifying market opportunities and the role of buzzwords in promoting innovation.
Final Thoughts and Closing Remarks
Speaker 1 thanks Speaker 3 for his insights and contributions to the discussion.
Speaker 3 emphasizes the importance of a high-resolution vision and the need for realistic planning.
Speaker 3 discusses the challenges of fundraising and the importance of focusing on first principles.
Speaker 3 encourages attendees to think about the future and the potential benefits of autonomous driving.

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From the transcript, I can analyze Xiaodi's contrasting views on MPI (Miles Per Intervention) versus Cost Per Mile (CPM):

Miles Per Intervention (MPI):

• Criticized by Xiaodi as a "terrible idea"
• Issues identified:
  • Lacks clear definition of what counts as an intervention
  • Safety-critical interventions are left to each company's discretion
  • This discretion leads to inconsistent reporting
  • Became more of a PR tool for fundraising
  • Companies manipulate numbers by disregarding certain disengagements
  • Different companies have different standards

Cost Per Mile (CPM):

• Viewed by Xiaodi as the true "first principle" for autonomous driving
• Advantages:
  • More concrete business metric
  • Can be standardized like accounting principles
  • Should be verifiable regardless of which accounting firm is used
  • Directly ties to business viability
  • More transparent and harder to manipulate
  • Helps make practical decisions (e.g., sensor selection based on reliability/cost over features)
• Real examples given:
  • Human-driven trucks: ~$2 per mile
  • Early autonomous (TuSimple): ~$20 per mile
  • Major factors affecting CPM include equipment reliability, maintenance, downtime

Xiaodi advocates for CPM to become more like an accounting concept - standardized, verifiable, and consistent across the industry, unlike the more subjective MPI metric.

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reached out to Xiaodi -

Building on the concept of nail-scale-sail phase of a company, I'm doing research on how founders allocate their time in three operations: collaborate, segment, capitalize.

Translating this into your language, it's about how a founder allocates one's time/effort among 1) building operational capabilities (lowering cost per mile), 2) developing market segments (customer acquisition), and 3) raising capital. Then I also ask this at the nail, scale, sail phase of the startup.

Considering your understanding of both technical and social engineering aspects of CEO's task in different phases, I'm curious how your time allocation differs between your tusimple CTO and bot.auto CEO. Could you describe a little? Happy to jump on a zoom call if you find this easier.

P.S. I'm sure you'd know, but regarding your manufacturing principles (higher production volume-> higher quality), I'd like to put one warning case on how higher quality can mean longer delay time (attached) on your radar.

MediTech (disguised name and industry) developed sophisticated technology to improve brain imaging before and during cranial surgery by heightening image resolution through the exploitation of technological advances in imaging, plus adding in algorithmic innovation and computational horsepower to interpret the images. Presenting their improved images with an appealing user interface, MediTech’s solution had the potential to markedly improve cranial surgery outcomes. MediTech hired top-flight engineers who were tasked with achieving the highest possible performance for its system. As a result, the engineering team selected suppliers with technologically superior capabilities and components. These suppliers, intended as collaboration partners, were mostly large and well-established players in their industries. However, collectively, the geography and size of the chosen supply chain created a logistical and business nightmare for small-lot prototype production and assembly. Not only were the transport lead times across the supply chain painfully long, but MediTech also lacked bargaining power to get fast turnaround times on prototype and component production from their chosen suppliers. Consequently, the prototype development and manufacturing cycles were dramatically elongated and the company did not have enough cash to endure the resulting delays, resulting in selling the company to a competitor. The net result was that early supply chain designs, implemented by engineers solely focused on the technological performance of the sourced components, were a key factor in preventing the company from meeting critical targets set by its capital suppliers.

[hyunjimoon]

https://otter.ai/u/YRriWgD_0B_g1V5R7V7C08ZjLD8?surfaceChat=true&tab=chat&view=transcript

mature market by duopoly

incremental adding sth, but we have strong R cycle










faa provided 8m certification path

anyone can make prototype but manufacture at scale is challenge

[hyunjimoon]

Group	Speaker	Main Topic	Key Points & Comments
Future of Transportation & Safety	Seamus	Safety Standards for New Technologies	- Use technological transitions as opportunity to raise safety standards - Need balanced approach: push beyond current standards but keep feasible - Aviation-style "zero deaths" standard as aspiration
	Xinling	Safety System Design	- Coordinate vehicle component design (acceleration vs braking) - Consider both autonomous and human driver safety - Network design to minimize challenging scenarios (e.g., unprotected left turns)
	Tanay	Vehicle Safety Analysis	- Analyzed fatality increase from 2015 - Investigated SUV/pickup market share impact - Examined AV crash statistics and SAE classification
Nonlinearity Research	Donghang	Non-linear Effects in Travel Behavior	- Population density effects on car ownership vary by stage - Commute time impact on remote work preferences shows threshold effects - Importance of causal inference in machine learning
Systematic Planning	Ziyan	Hydrogen Transportation	- Clean hydrogen production costs and distribution - Infrastructure planning for delivery methods - Connection to data center energy needs
	Angie	Innovation Ecosystem	- Mapped forum sessions to innovation roles - Identified key operational aspects - Transition from technical to business metrics
	Ocean	Built Environment Impact	- Cities as integration of infrastructure and social networks - Built environment as technology for social scaling - Infrastructure design crucial for optimization
	Magdalena	Transport Topics Analysis	- Safety dominated forum discussions (9 lectures) - AI/AV topics prominent in forum but less in agencies - Comparison with different agencies' priorities
	ChenAn	Vision-First Transportation Innovation	- Start with city vision before technology - Focus on desired urban experience (human-centered vs car-centric) - Problem-oriented innovation for equity, connectivity, sustainability - Importance of vision communication and public trust

[hyunjimoon]

https://otter.ai/u/GbYYgLyKNryFZ7s3gpPXqOYKAHY?utm_source=copy_url
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

[hyunjimoon]

Mobility Venture Challenge (Need)	Probabilistic Tool / Theoretical Framework (Solution)	Scaling Tool
Autonomous Vehicle Safety Assessment	Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Bayesian Inference	Evaluation, Automation
Sustainable Battery Development and Validation	Bayesian Sequential Testing, Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling	Processification, Professionalization
Scaling and Validating Aviation Innovations	Markov Decision Processes, Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling	Replication, Evaluation
Strategic Partnership and Collaboration Optimization	Bayesian Networks, Probabilistic Relational Models	Collaboration, Platformization
Predicting Demand and Market Acceptance for New Mobility Technologies	Bayesian Demand Forecasting, Probabilistic Programming	Segmentation, Evaluation
Fleet Routing and Operations Optimization	Markov Decision Processes (MDP), Simulation Optimization	Automation, Processification
Optimizing Transportation Infrastructure Investments	Bayesian Decision Analysis, Stochastic Optimization	Capitalization, Evaluation
Land Use and Travel Behavior Prediction	Bayesian Hierarchical Models, Probabilistic Machine Learning	Segmentation, Processification
Vehicle Design and Performance Safety Optimization	Resource-Rational Decision-Making, Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis	Professionalization, Evaluation
Transportation and Public Health Impact Analysis	Bayesian Causal Inference, Hierarchical Bayesian Models	Culturalization, Evaluation
Resource Allocation in Mobility Ventures	Probabilistic Portfolio Management, Bayesian Portfolio Optimization	Capitalization, Professionalization
Innovation Ecosystem and Market Fit Analysis	Bayesian Network Analysis, Probabilistic Scenario Modeling	Platformization, Culturalization
Manufacturing and Supply Chain Strategy Decisions	Bayesian Optimization, Simulation-Based Calibration	Automation, Professionalization
Nonlinear Effects in Urban Mobility and Transportation Behavior	Probabilistic Programming, Nonlinear Bayesian Models	Processification, Segmentation
Urban Hydrogen Transportation Infrastructure Planning	Probabilistic Feasibility Analysis, Bayesian Infrastructure Modeling	Capitalization, Replication

[hyunjimoon]

prompt

1. understand the first attached as review of the talk on transportation Week 11 (Mircea Dinca). second attached is mircea's interest

2. based on 1, infer what was the real talk about and summarize this in one sentence. explain this in one sentence.

3. understand the third attached (review of angie moon of previous mit mobility initiative talk) to infer her interest

4. based on 2, 3, give me 300 words review that projects the talk (from 2) either via angie's interest lens or on angie's interest hyperplane (from 3)

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using The Future of Autonomous Vehicles: Balancing Innovation, Safety, and Sustainability cld

Week	Date	Speaker	Title	Angie's Review
1	Sep 6	Raquel Urtasun	Bringing Generative AI to the Physical World: Insights from Waabi	Focused on capitalization strategies and mobility venture frameworks	Based on Raquel's talk on her description of technology, competitive landscape, relation with investors, I used this opportunity to apply some framework from Mobility venture class (that jinhua, john, bhuvan teach) to Waabi's case. I focused especially on capitalization. Mobility ventures require specialized capitalization strategies due to their unique sector characteristics. These companies navigate complex stakeholder networks and evolving regulatory landscapes. (Causal complexity) Their business models demand constant innovation to keep pace with rapidly changing technologies and user behaviors. (Dynamic decisions) Valuation hinges on the ability to anticipate and mitigate rare, high-impact events. (Estimation of rare events) Accurate value assessment requires processing diverse data types, from regulatory texts to performance metrics. (Forms of data) Despite short-term hype, these ventures promise long-term transformative impact, necessitating adaptable equity allocation strategies. Waabi exemplifies these mobility sector traits in autonomous trucking. Its Generative AI technology interacts with intricate logistics systems and regulations, demanding a holistic approach to development and capitalization. (Causal complexity) The Waabi World simulator showcases rapid adaptation capabilities, directly impacting valuation in a fast-changing industry. (Dynamic decisions) This technology models rare, critical scenarios, enhancing safety and influencing investor confidence. (Estimation of rare events) By processing varied data in simulations, Waabi provides tangible metrics for valuation. (Forms of data) Balancing short-term expectations with long-term potential, Waabi's approach requires sophisticated equity strategies adaptable to its transformative potential and complex risk profile.
2	Sep 13	John Landis	Transportation Megaprojects: Global Hits and Misses
3	Sep 20	Daniel Rodriguez	Reflections on the Growing Field of Transport and Health	Yes - Analyzed transportation's impact on public health through entrepreneurial lens	# Expanded Review: Daniel Rodriguez on Transportation and Health Daniel Rodriguez's talk on the intersection of transportation and public health provided a wealth of insights for urban entrepreneurs. As a professor at UC Berkeley with extensive research experience across cities like Boston and Bogota, Rodriguez offered a comprehensive view of how transportation systems impact community health and well-being. The presentation traced the evolution of transportation's health effects, from early concerns about safety and environmental health to modern issues of chronic diseases and mental well-being. Rodriguez highlighted several key findings: 1. Increased car usage correlates strongly with rising rates of obesity, depression, and mortality. 2. Active transportation, such as walking and cycling, positively affects both physical and mental health, even in polluted megacities – a counterintuitive finding that challenges common assumptions. 3. Public transportation can foster a sense of community, benefiting mental health (reminded me of Singapore) From an entrepreneurial perspective, Rodriguez's approach was innovative  - Perception: He breaks down complex urban health dynamics into manageable components, allowing for targeted analysis and intervention. - Probabilistic Reasoning: By utilizing diverse data sources, including satellite imagery for NO2 concentrations and household surveys for active transportation patterns, Rodriguez demonstrates how to model and predict health impacts effectively. - Planning: His focus on developing new measures and tools to incorporate public health considerations into transportation decisions offers a roadmap for future innovations. This systematic approach opens up numerous opportunities for entrepreneurs in urban mobility and public health. For instance, startups could develop data-driven solutions that optimize transportation systems not just for efficiency, but also for positive health outcomes. There's potential for innovations in urban planning tools that balance mobility needs with public health goals, or for creating transportation services that actively promote community engagement and mental well-being. Rodriguez's research on differential exposures throughout the day and cumulative health effects highlights the need for nuanced, context-aware solutions. This presents opportunities for entrepreneurs to create adaptive mobility services that respond to real-time environmental conditions, potentially mitigating health risks in polluted urban areas. In conclusion, Rodriguez's talk provides a valuable framework for entrepreneurs to create impactful solutions at the intersection of transportation, urban planning, and public health. By considering the broader health implications of mobility systems, this helped my research on what utility shoul startups optimize. They can position themselves to address some of the most pressing challenges facing modern cities, ultimately contributing to healthier, more livable urban environments.
4	Sep 27	Mohamed Mezghani	Public Transit is an Investment not a Cost: Perspectives from UITP	Yes - Focused on resource-rationality and innovation in public transit systems	Reflecting on Mohamed Mezghani's talk, I was struck by his framing of public transit as a long-term investment in urban infrastructure and social welfare, not just an expense. The Union Internationale des Transports Publics (UITP), advocating since 1885, underscores this mission. Gustavo Petro's quote, "A developed country is not where the poor have cars, but where the rich use public transportation," encapsulates the need to prioritize transit in urban planning. Public transit offers economic benefits: enhanced mobility, reduced congestion, job creation, and stimulating economic activity that elevates property values. Environmentally, it reduces emissions and promotes sustainable development. It advances social equity by providing affordable mobility for all. Mezghani's benchmark—any commuter accessing transportation within a 15-minute walk—is a practical goal. Funding models like "who uses pays," "who pollutes pays," and "who benefits pays" suggest diversifying funding sources. Solving the misaligned incentive is critical. Public-private partnerships, as in Japan, could enhance competitiveness and coverage. Innovations like UITP's seamless payment systems and New Delhi's solar-powered metro align with UN sustainable goals. As an operations and innovation management researcher, I see potential to catalyze innovation in public transit systems. There should be balance between strategy and operations and I hope I can contribute to this using my research on resource-rationality. This can help agencies balance analysis with decisive action. Modeling decision-makers as resource-rational agents may improve planning agility. Concepts like conversational inference could enhance stakeholder engagement among planners, officials, and communities. Adapting our research on startup capitalization could inform new public transit funding models. Our decision support frameworks could enhance scenario planning and strategic testing, contributing to more adaptive systems. With younger generations favoring public transport, there's optimism for the future. However, countering the influence of automotive lobbies remains challenging. As a participant in forums like MIT's Mobility Forum, I'm eager to contribute to UITP's goals, helping drive innovation and improve sustainable urban mobility.
5	Oct 4	Jelena Notaros	LiDAR and Photonics in Transportation	Yes - Analyzed research direction prioritization and technology commercialization	I was curious how Prof. Jelena Notaros’ would choose among the eight potential research directions (Holographic AR Display, Transparent Wafer Platform, LC-Based Modulators, Chip-Based 3D Printers, Optical Tweezing of Cancer Cells, Flexible Wafers, Trapped-Ion Quantum, and Underwater Optical Communication) i.e. resource rational choice. As such, I search relevant literature and designed a dashboard connecting the loops in the industry along with technology s-curve theory.  To prioritize technologies for commercialization, focus on those with large addressable markets, technological readiness, and scalability. Holographic AR Displays and Chip-Based 3D Printers are strong contenders due to their applications in gaming, education, and manufacturing, broad market appeal, and partnership potential. Meanwhile, the Transparent Wafer Platform and LC-Based Modulators could be attractive for their market maturity and scalable solutions across various industries. Competitive advantage is essential, as technologies like Trapped-Ion Quantum Computing and Underwater Optical Communication address specialized niches with less competition. Regulatory considerations are also key, particularly for medical applications like Optical Tweezing of Cancer Cells, which could face lengthy approval processes. Flexible Wafers might require less capital, appealing for a quick start, while high-impact technologies like Trapped-Ion Quantum Computing promise transformative effects over time. Thus, beginning with Holographic AR Displays or Chip-Based 3D Printers allows for immediate commercial success, while allocating resources to Trapped-Ion Quantum Computing and Optical Tweezing of Cancer Cells positions for long-term breakthroughs. Startup Strategy Dashboard is an interactive tool designed to visualize and optimize startup strategy for LiDAR technology companies. It features three main components: 1. A dynamic Startup Lifecycle Curve showing the evolution of Innovation, Operational Capability, and Efficiency over time. 2. An interactive pentagon representing five key reinforcing loops (R1-R5) in the startup ecosystem. Users can adjust loop importance by dragging a point within the pentagon, though this feature needs improvement for better visibility and usability. 3. A table detailing each loop's description and impact.
6	Oct 11	Henry Liu	Safety Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles	Yes - Discussed AV safety assessment and entrepreneurial implications	Professor Henry Liu's lecture on autonomous vehicle (AV) safety assessment at MCity highlighted key challenges in AV development, particularly the "curse of dimensionality" and the "curse of rarity." These challenges stem from the complexity of real-world driving environments and the scarcity of safety-critical events needed for training AI models. MCity, a comprehensive testbed, aims to address these issues by providing standardized testing environments and methods to generate more relevant data for AV training. The lecture sparked discussions on broader implications of AV technology, including concerns about reinforcing car-centric urban design, the need for public participation in AV integration, and the importance of balancing innovation with careful regulation. Students reflected on the potential societal impacts of AVs, such as increased accessibility for people with disabilities and possible congestion issues. A key takeaway was the importance of learning not just from failures but also from successes and near-miss incidents in AV development. This approach provides valuable insights for improving safety and performance in unpredictable scenarios. Applying these principles to entrepreneurship, the concept of learning from near misses (or "close-to-lost successes") can be particularly valuable. Entrepreneurs can gain critical insights from situations where they almost failed but ultimately succeeded. These scenarios often reveal areas for improvement that might not be apparent in clear-cut successes or failures. Additionally, the principle of rarity suggests that entrepreneurs should pay special attention to uncommon but high-impact events or opportunities, as these could provide unique advantages or reveal critical weaknesses in their business models. Also, after class I enjoyed class discussion on the open-science culture by sharing data.	Why We Need National Framework for AV Safety Testing 💜From functional safety to behavioral safety 🎲From deterministic safety to probabilistic safety 🔮From reactive investigation to proactive licensing
7	Oct 18	Jason Cao	Machine Learning Applications in Land Use and Travel Behavior Analysis	Yes - Explored probabilistic programming applications in urban planning	Professor Jason Cao's lecture on machine learning in urban analysis opens compelling research pathways for applying probabilistic programming to planning and operations. The case studies from Oslo, Minneapolis, and Xi'an demonstrate how advanced computational methods can uncover complex patterns that traditional deterministic models miss. Drawing from these insights, researchers interested in probabilistic programming could explore developing models that capture hierarchical spatial relationships, stochastic consumer behaviors, and threshold effects in urban systems. The emergence of automated data collection further enables possibilities for real-time probabilistic inference in planning systems. From an entrepreneurial perspective, the findings suggest rich opportunities at the intersection of probabilistic programming and operational planning. The discovered non-linear relationships between urban density and behavior point to the potential for more sophisticated probabilistic models that could better capture uncertainty in consumer choices and operational decisions. There's particular promise in developing interpretable planning tools that combine domain theory with probabilistic inference, enabling more robust decision-making in complex urban environments. The research indicates that traditional linear models often oversimplify these relationships, suggesting a market need for more nuanced probabilistic approaches that can adapt to changing conditions and handle uncertainty. Looking ahead, researchers face interesting challenges in advancing this field. The need to balance model complexity with interpretability remains paramount, especially when communicating with stakeholders and decision-makers. Incorporating domain expertise into probabilistic programs and validating predictions in real-world planning contexts present additional research opportunities. Audiences noted that while machine learning reveals complex patterns, the next frontier lies in developing probabilistic systems that can both handle uncertainty and provide actionable insights. This suggests a future where planning tools could leverage probabilistic programming to better model the stochastic nature of urban operations while remaining grounded in practical application.
8	Oct 25	Multiple Speakers	MIT Mobility Vision Day - Special Session on Autonomous Mobility	Yes - Analyzed industry transition from technical to operational focus	Based on the provided documents, here's a 300-word summary of the MIT Mobility Vision Day discussions: The panel featured three key perspectives on autonomous vehicle (AV) development: Raquel Urtasun (Waabi), Xiaodi Hou (Bot Auto), and Henry Liu (University of Michigan's MCity). The discussion highlighted a crucial transition in the AV industry from purely technological advancement to operational and business model considerations. Xiaodi Hou's contribution was particularly noteworthy in shifting the industry's focus from technical metrics to business fundamentals. He criticized the industry's reliance on Miles Per Intervention (MPI) as a metric, advocating instead for Cost Per Mile (CPM) as a more meaningful measure of success. This reflects his broader argument that AV companies must transition from being purely technology-focused to becoming "operations heavy" organizations that can manage real-world implementation challenges. Henry Liu presented MCity's framework for AV safety assessment, proposing a shift from deterministic to probabilistic safety standards. This approach acknowledges that while perfect safety is unattainable, AVs should demonstrate statistically superior safety compared to human drivers. Several attendees noted tensions in the industry's current state: - The gap between technological capabilities and real-world implementation - The need to balance high safety standards with practical business models - The challenge of integrating AVs into existing infrastructure and regulatory frameworks A key theme emerged around the industry's maturation: while early development focused on technological demonstrations, success now requires addressing operational challenges, business model viability, and regulatory compliance. This is exemplified by Hou's emphasis on moving from "software as a service" to "transportation as a service," acknowledging that AV companies must take on operational responsibilities to succeed. The discussions underscored that the future of AVs depends not just on technological innovation but on developing sustainable business models and establishing industry-wide standards for safety and operations.
9	Nov 1	Bhuvan Atluri & John Moavenzadeh	Vehicle Performance Trends and their Safety Implications	No review provided	Presentation by Bhuvan Atluri and John Moavenzadeh offered a compelling analysis of vehicle safety trends through the lens of resource rationality and operational efficiency. Their discussion highlighted how current market dynamics are creating suboptimal outcomes from a system-wide perspective. The presenters demonstrated how consumer choices, influenced by marketing strategies, have led to an inefficient allocation of resources in vehicle design. While manufacturers have invested heavily in acceleration capabilities and size increases, there hasn't been corresponding investment in braking performance improvements, creating an imbalance in vehicle safety systems. This misallignment reflects a classic case of locally optimized decisions leading to globally suboptimal outcomes. From an operations management perspective, the presentation revealed how the current trend of "car bloat" creates cascading inefficiencies throughout the transportation system. Larger vehicles require more road space, consume more resources, and create higher risks for vulnerable road users, all of which increase system-wide operational costs and complexity. The data-driven analysis presented showed clear statistical evidence of safety disparities between US and European markets, suggesting opportunities for operational improvements through policy interventions and design standards. The comparison of braking performance versus acceleration capabilities across vehicle categories provided quantifiable metrics for assessing system inefficiencies. Perhaps most importantly, the presentation highlighted the need for a more holistic approach to vehicle design and market regulation that considers the entire operational ecosystem rather than just individual vehicle performance metrics. This aligns with sustainable system design principles, where the goal is to optimize for overall system efficiency rather than individual component performance. The discussion points toward potential solutions that would require balancing multiple stakeholder interests - from manufacturer profitability to public safety - through evidence-based policy making and improved regulatory frameworks. This multi-stakeholder optimization challenge presents an opportunity to apply resource-rational decision-making frameworks to achieve better system-wide outcomes.
10	Nov 8	Stephen Zoepf & Beth Osborne	Five Recommendations for Incoming Transportation Leadership	Not yet occurred*	The Mobility Forum with Zoepf and Osborne illuminated critical inefficiencies in U.S. transportation system optimization. Their five recommendations challenged current approaches to safety, maintenance, and funding allocation, proposing fundamental shifts in how we measure and incentivize transportation outcomes. Their analysis of infrastructure funding revealed complex multi-stakeholder optimization challenges. The current model favors new construction over maintenance, creating an unsustainable accumulation of maintenance debt. This reflects broader misalignment between short-term political incentives and long-term system efficiency. This misalignment manifests in the Highway Trust Fund's solvency crisis and the challenges of transitioning away from fuel tax-based funding. From an operations management perspective, Osborne's proposed shift to accessibility metrics represents a fundamental reframing of system optimization. Rather than measuring success through vehicle speed or congestion reduction, focusing on access to jobs and services better captures the system's actual utility. Virginia's adoption of such metrics provides an empirical case study for this operational paradigm shift. These insights underscore the need for a holistic, data-driven approach to transportation policy that optimizes for long-term sustainability while ensuring equitable access. The transition requires developing new resource allocation frameworks that can adapt to evolving technological and social conditions. After skimming through my classmate's review and learned their high quality, I decided to include this in my review. Donghang Li highlighted, the U.S. system's "ambiguity of responsibility" leads to blaming users rather than addressing systemic design flaws, contrasting with Europe's stronger governmental accountability. ChenAn Shen emphasized how historical infrastructure decisions were deliberately used for racial control, creating systemic inequities that current Title VI regulations fail to address. Supporting this systemic critique, Seamus Joyce-Johnson noted Osborne's point about the fundamental inequity of EV charging investments given the financial burden of car ownership.
11	Nov 15	Mircea Dinca	Sustainable Batteries for Mobile Applications	Not yet occurred*	🧪 Testing Methods: Dinca's lab chose sequential testing over parallel experimentation for battery cathode development. While trying many solutions simultaneously might seem faster, their methodical approach proved more efficient for battery chemistry where each test is expensive and results are highly interconnected. This strategy allowed them to learn maximum information from each experiment. 😲 Openness to Surprises: The discovery of TAQ exemplifies the value of embracing unexpected outcomes in research. When researchers found an unidentified black precipitate - something typically discarded - they investigated further instead of dismissing it. This openness to "mistakes" led to their breakthrough in organic battery materials, demonstrating how innovation often emerges from unplanned discoveries. ⚙️ Development Process: Instead of incrementally improving existing metal-based cathodes, Dinca's team pursued a fundamentally different approach using organic materials. This shift from local to global optimization - rethinking the basic chemistry of batteries rather than tweaking current solutions - enabled them to break free from traditional constraints around costly metals like cobalt and nickel. 🧠 Market Understanding: Dinca recognizes that technical excellence alone doesn't guarantee adoption. His emphasis that "technology is there, but there are issues regarding perceptions" shows sophisticated market awareness. By identifying policy as "the most important force for innovation," he acknowledges that success requires navigating both technical and social challenges. This dual focus on technology development and stakeholder engagement increases the likelihood of TAQ's successful commercialization.
12	Nov 22	Tom O'Leary	The Future Takes Shape	Not yet occurred*	[[jet mmi_thomas oleary_otter_ai.txt]] JetZero's development exemplifies how entrepreneurial knowledge production evolves through distinct phases of understanding, theory development, and strategic implementation. O'Leary's presentation reveals how the company transformed its imaginative understanding of aircraft design possibilities into concrete market solutions through systematic knowledge development cycles. Starting with imaginative understanding, JetZero recognized new possibilities in blended wing body design by challenging fundamental assumptions about aircraft architecture. Their breakthrough came from reinterpreting existing knowledge about aerodynamics through the lens of first principles, particularly in understanding how geometry rather than complex physics could create efficiency gains. This initial understanding developed through theory development cycles as they converted these insights into testable frameworks around lift distribution, structural design, and manufacturing processes. The company's working theory emerged through systematic combination of multiple knowledge domains - aerodynamics, materials science, manufacturing processes, and market dynamics. This theoretical framework guided their development approach, particularly in solving the critical challenge of non-cylindrical pressure vessels through carbon composite innovation. The theory development process benefited from reinforcing loops of NASA's decades of research combined with modern manufacturing insights. Their strategic choices reflect sophisticated implementation of these theoretical frameworks into market-focused decisions. By targeting the mid-market gap and maintaining compatibility with existing airport infrastructure, JetZero translated their technical innovations into practical value propositions. The diffusion of these choices through partnerships with the Air Force, NASA, and commercial stakeholders has created new understanding cycles, particularly around manufacturing scalability and certification pathways. Overall, JetZero's approach to aviation sustainability represents a compelling case study in resource-rational innovation management. O'Leary's presentation demonstrated how the company balances transformative technological ambition with practical operational constraints, employing a sophisticated decision-making framework that optimizes across multiple variables.
13	Dec 6	Multiple Speakers	MMI Senior Fellows Presentation	Not yet occurred*	https://otter.ai/u/GbYYgLyKNryFZ7s3gpPXqOYKAHY?utm_source=copy_url https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator	![[mmiDec6_meeting_saved_chat.txt]]
14	Dec 13	Kay Axhausen	The Dilemma of Transport Planning and a Possible Alternative Urban Vision	Not yet occurred*

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