Abstract Submission CAS2025

[jeanbaptiste]

Abstract Submission (200 words) to CAS2025 by @jeanbaptiste - Oct 10th 2025

Title: Entrepreneurial Exaptation: Bayesian Strategies for Parallel and Sequential Pivots in Dynamic Markets

Entrepreneurs in dynamic markets face the challenge of balancing exploration and commitment, particularly when deciding when to pivot based on new information. Pivots - strategic shifts in direction - are essential for adapting to market changes, but excessive or poorly timed pivots can hinder learning and harm long-term performance. The concept of exaptation (the repurposing of existing resources for new uses), focuses on two key strategies for structured experimentation: parallel pivots, which involve broad exploration of simultaneously tested ideas, and sequential pivots, a methodical approach where each experiment informs the next. However, there is uncertainty inherent in these strategic decisions. In this study, we explore how they can be mitigated by using bayesian modeling and probabilistic programming, which offer a structured framework for managing experimentation. We compare "test-four-choose-one" parallel and "test-two-choose-one-twice" sequential approaches across varying contexts of technological innovation and customer segments. Our initial results reveal that parallel search outperforms sequential search when test costs are low relative to pivoting costs, uncertainty is high, and true values of innovations and customer segments have low correlation. This study contributes to understanding how entrepreneurs can systematically manage uncertainty, leverage resources and value in dynamic market environments, offering insights into entrepreneurial innovation within complex systems.

[jeanbaptiste]