💥 Good, Bad, and Ugly behaviors: designed misinformation backfires

[hyunjimoon]

Observation

behaviors that inspired system thinking from the past:

Good behavior

1. "PyMC are our friends, not the enemy" - Stan open source leading professor

Ugly behavior

2. "Show higher value than statistical demand forecast" - Received feedback on analytics service app for small business people

Bad behavior

3. "Don't supply forecasting engine to the competitor" - CEO of company I supplied AI demand forecasting engine

Posterior predictive

Aftermath of bad and ugly behavior:

• 2 can win the battle but lose a war
• 3 can win temporary user satisfaction but lose long-term trust

Tracing Prior

Cause of bad and ugly behavior

• human with bounded rationality trying to model bounded rationality
• offensive is easier than defensive strategy meaning manager's react to visible competition (competitor in the same market)or measurable factors (satisfaction) rather than its unsurfaced bodies of an iceberg 🗻Surfacing assumption iceberg #43

Similar problem with 1 is raised in "Between GPS and car dashboard speed which is more accurate?". Because of car manufacturers' conventional design of representing higher speed than real to alarm drivers, GPS is more accurate. However, this well-intended design cause confusion and even create calamity.