🔥 Prometheus Vensim MCMC: value of estimation with immature diagnosis

[hyunjimoon]

Thanks to Tom, I am now able to appreciate the value of estimation methods with less matured diagnostics. I was playing the devil's advocate, so no offense. @tomfid

In disseminating the concept of simulation-testing concept using estimation (fire), we can think of MCMC and filtering in Vensim (Prometeus) as increasing Susceptible and Exposed stock so that larger number of people can get infected by simulation-testing concept using estimation.

I was blinded by frustrated emotion, oblivious to the fact that mis-calibration detection framework (SBC) feeds on estimation algorithm. Reminds me of #71. Returning to lean + iterative spirit of model management (Charles Fines explains it as yin-discipline and yang-discipline here), the role of Vensim is Promatus #96, exposing estimation to larger audience.