close the loop for Tesla story

[hyunjimoon]

summary: I started from #12 and I recalled what my goal was: "simulation and hierarchical bayes to business school". so i expanded the scope of paper that includes two features:

• I wish to develop a more interactive tool, that tells meaning of the new observation to each agent with specific hierarchy of prior (best usecase of simulation-based calibration in that one can plug in specific prior and see how the situation pans out before updating one's prior)
• as strategies inform lower level functions (operations), feasibility and desirability of operations should change conditional on the choice of strategy (best usecase of hierarchical bayesian)

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past relevant attempts

1. evaluating each experiments quantitatively
   eight hypothesis evaluated by Criticality X Fidelity / Opportunity Cost for EV architecture

Data4DM/BayesSD#167

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future works on bayesian workflow, experiment cost, startup operations (all translate into tesla)
Data4DM/BayesSD#159 (comment)

operational focus for each strategy

reasoning for operations

Operational Consideration	Probabilistic Reasoning	Relational Reasoning	Social Reasoning
Facilities
- Size	Capacity modeling, demand forecasting	Supply chain logistics, transportation costs	Workforce needs, community impact
- Location	Geographic factors, transportation infrastructure	Proximity to markets, supply chain efficiency	Regulations, labor availability
- Focus	Production efficiency, market access	Integration with supply chain	Community impact, workforce utilization
Capacity
- Amount	Demand forecasting, production planning	Supplier capabilities, production scheduling	Workforce flexibility, overtime potential
- Timing	Lead times, demand fluctuations	Customer fulfillment, supplier delivery	Workforce availability, schedule adjustments
Vertical Integration & Supplier Management
- Direction	Supplier reliability, risk assessment	Upstream/downstream relationships, collaboration	Trust building, contract negotiation
- Extent	Market volatility, technological changes	Control over production, cost savings	Workforce, community, external partnerships
Production Technologies & Processes
- Equipment	Reliability, failure rates, maintenance costs	Automation potential, system-level interactions	Workforce training, safety, job displacement
- Interconnectedness	Process bottlenecks, efficiency optimization	Dependencies between processes	Communication, collaboration
Workforce & Management
- Policies	Financial impact, turnover, litigation risks	Employee morale, productivity, conflict	Fair wages, safe conditions, talent attraction
- Skill Levels	Training program effectiveness	Team performance, production efficiency	Continuous learning, upskilling opportunities
Information Technologies
- Use and Investment	Efficiency, productivity, ROI	System integration, data sharing	User adoption, change management
Supply Chain & Materials
- Logistics	Inventory levels, transportation times	Provider relationships, transportation optimization	Delivery performance, partner collaboration
- Vendor Relations	Supplier reliability, disruption risks	Contract negotiation, capabilities matching	Trust building, conflict resolution
Organization & Incentives
- Structure	Decision-making, accountability, performance	Collaboration, communication	Employee morale, motivation, conflict
- Incentives	Cost, complexity, unintended consequences	Impact on employee behavior	Alignment with goals, promotion of teamwork
Business Processes
- Product Generation	Process bottlenecks, efficiency optimization	Cross-functional dependencies	Roles, responsibilities, collaboration
- Interfaces	Impact on efficiency, data accuracy	Workflow integration, information exchange	User experience, training
- Vendor Development	Supplier reliability, disruption risks	Relationship management, delivery performance	Collaboration culture, problem resolution
- Order Fulfillment	Delivery times, customer satisfaction	Customer relationships, service quality	Customer service, issue resolution
- Other Capabilities	Impact of cross-functional collaboration	Departmental dependencies, potential synergies	Innovation, communication, continuous improvement