Seasonal Risk

[frozenhelium]

Risk Seasonal Map

Metrices

People Exposed

Data Sources

• Raster displacement data
  • Cyclone
  • Flood
• IPC
  • Food Insecurity

People at Risk of Displacement

Data Sources

• IDMC
  • Cyclone
  • Flood

Risk Score

Data Sources

• INFORM (Modified by Justin)
  • Drought
  • Cyclone
  • Flood
• GWIS
  • Wildfire

Severity

We have 5 category fot the severity

1. VERY HIGH
2. HIGH
3. MEDIUM
4. LOW
5. VERY LOW

Calculation for Severity

People Exposed

For each country,

• We have exposure population by the hazard.
• We further disaggregate them into the months.
• We calculate the total population by the SUM of population from selected hazards for the selected months.
• Then, we categorize the severity according to the predefined population brackets as follow:

VERY HIGH: exposure > 10,000,000
HIGH: exposure > 1,000,000
MEDIUM: exposure > 100,000
LOW: exposure > 10,000
VERY LOW: exposure <= 10,000

People at the Risk of Displacement

For each country,

• We have population at the risk of displacment by the hazard.
• We further disaggregate them into the months.
• We calculate the total population by the SUM of population from selected hazards for the selected months.
• Then, we categorize the severity according to the predefined population brackets as follow:

VERY HIGH: exposure > 1,000,000
HIGH: exposure > 100,000
MEDIUM: exposure > 10,000
LOW: exposure > 1,000
VERY LOW: exposure <= 1,000

Risk Score

For each country,

• We have risk score by the hazard from 2 different source with different range.
• We further disaggregate them into the months.
• We calculate the final risk category by taking the MAX value from selected hazards for the selected months
• Then, for Wildfire data from GWIS, we categorize them based on this Article. Summary of the article can be found here.
• And, for the data from INFORM, we categorize them based on the official categorization.

Normalize by population

• We find the max population, and we calculate a normal population factor for each contry as: Population factor = Population of the Country / Max Population
• We then multiply the risk score by this population factor

Include coping capacity

• We have value of Lack of Coping Capacity (LCC) for each country with a range of 0 - 10
• We then normalize the value of LCC
• We then multiply the risk score by the normalized value

Map

The map shows the calculated severity of selected hazards for the selected months

Sidepane

The sidepane shows the stacked bar chart for the relative risk of the selected hazards for the selected months