Merge remote-tracking branch 'upstream/master'

Author: rubind

README.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Science-Driven Optimization of the LSST Observing Strategy
 
-A community white paper about LSST survey strategy ("cadence"), with quantifications via the the Metric Analysis Framework. We are drafting some individual science cases, that are either very important, and somehow stress the observing strategy, and descriing how we expect them to be sensitive to LSST observing strategy. MAF metric calculations are then being designed and implemented - we started this during the 2015 LSST Observing Strategy Workshop (in Bremerton, WA, August 17-21): these  will form the quantitative backbone of the document. You may have heard of the coming  "Cadence Wars" - this document represents the Cadence Diplomacy that will allow us, as a community, to avoid, or at least manage, that conflict. We welcome contributions from all around the LSST Science community.
+A community white paper about LSST survey strategy ("cadence"), with quantifications via the Metric Analysis Framework. We are drafting some individual science cases, that are either very important, and somehow stress the observing strategy, and descriing how we expect them to be sensitive to LSST observing strategy. MAF metric calculations are then being designed and implemented - we started this during the 2015 LSST Observing Strategy Workshop (in Bremerton, WA, August 17-21): these  will form the quantitative backbone of the document. You may have heard of the coming  "Cadence Wars" - this document represents the Cadence Diplomacy that will allow us, as a community, to avoid, or at least manage, that conflict. We welcome contributions from all around the LSST Science community.
 
 * **[Read the current draft of the white paper](http://www.slac.stanford.edu/~digel/ObservingStrategy/whitepaper/LSST_Observing_Strategy_White_Paper.pdf)** (automatically generated PDF, updated every hour, in principle - [log file is here](http://www.slac.stanford.edu/~digel/ObservingStrategy/whitepaper/LSST_Observing_Strategy_White_Paper.log))
 [![Build Status](https://travis-ci.org/LSSTScienceCollaborations/ObservingStrategy.svg?branch=master)](https://travis-ci.org/LSSTScienceCollaborations/ObservingStrategy)

whitepaper/MagellanicClouds/MCs_Exoplanets.tex

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+% ====================================================================
+%+
+% SECTION:
+%    MCs_ProperMotion.tex
+%
+% CHAPTER:
+%    magclouds.tex
+%
+% ELEVATOR PITCH:
+%-
+% ====================================================================
+
+% \section{The Proper Motion of the LMC and SMC}
+\subsection{Exoplanets in the LMC and SMC}
+\def\secname{\chpname:MC_exoplanets}\label{sec:\secname}
+
+\credit{lundmb}
+
+While exoplanets are discussed in greater depth in Section~5.5.2, it is
+also worth noting here the unique circumstance of exoplanets in the
+Magellanic Clouds. To date, all detected exoplanets have been found around
+host stars within the Milky Way. Any constraints that could be applied to
+planet occurance rates in such a different stellar population as is found
+in the Magellanic Clouds would provide a fresh insight into the limits
+that are to be placed on planet formation rates.
+
+The transit method of exoplanet detection is constrained by sufficient
+period coverage in the observations taken, and in the dimming caused by
+the star's transit being large enough with respect to the noise in
+observations that the periodic signal of the transit can be recovered.
+The relatively small chance of a planet being present and properly
+aligned is offset by observing a large number of stars simultaneously.
+Simulations have already shown that LSST has the capability to recover
+the correct periods for large exoplanets around stars at the distance
+of the LMC \citet{2015AJ....149...16L}. Further work is characterizing
+the ability to detect these planets with sufficiently significant power
+to determine the planet yield that could be expected from the LMC
+(Lund et al. in prep).
+
+
+% --------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+% \subsection{Metrics}
+\subsubsection{Metrics}
+\label{sec:\chpname:metrics}
+
+The case of transiting exoplanets in the Magellanic Clouds will benefit
+from the same metrics that are used by transiting exoplanets within the
+Milky Way, and are addressed in Section~5.2.1 and Section~5.5.2. The key
+properties of the OpSim to be measured will be those that relate to the
+number of observations that will be made during planetary transits, and
+the overall phase coverage of observations. Unlike the general case of
+transiting planets in LSST, transiting planets in the Magellanic Clouds
+specifically will likely only have any meaning in deep-drilling fields,
+or some other comarable cadence.
+
+% % --------------------------------------------------------------------
+%
+% \subsection{Metrics}
+% \label{sec:\secname:metrics}
+%
+% % --------------------------------------------------------------------
+%
+% \subsection{OpSim Analysis}
+% \label{sec:\secname:analysis}
+%
+% % --------------------------------------------------------------------
+%
+% \subsection{Discussion}
+% \label{sec:\secname:discussion}
+%
+% % ====================================================================
+%
+% \navigationbar

whitepaper/MilkyWay/MW_Astrometry.tex

@@ -465,9 +465,43 @@ \subsubsection{Metrics: Parallax and proper motion precision}
 
 \subsubsection{Figures of Merit depending on the Metrics}
 
-Building on the first-order metrics above, this subsection will communicate scientific figures of merit for the cases identified in \autoref{sec:\secname:MW_Astrometry_measurements} above.
-
-Table \ref{tab_SummaryMWAstrometry} summarizes the Figures of Merit for Astrometry science cases.
+Building on the first-order metrics above, this subsection communicates scientific figures of merit for the cases identified in \autoref{sec:\secname:MW_Astrometry_measurements} above.
+
+Table \ref{tab_SummaryMWAstrometry} summarizes the Figures of Merit
+(FoMs) for Astrometry science cases. At the time of writing, FoMs have
+been implemented to summarize the random uncertainty in proper motion
+and parallax, for two regions experiencing extreme values of these
+quantities: the inner Plane (conservatively defined in this section as
+$|b| \lesssim 7^o$~and $|l| \lesssim 80^o$), and the main survey
+(excluding the inner plane and the Southern Polar region, taken
+here as $\delta_{2000.0} < -60.0^o$). Figure
+\ref{fig_astrom_RegionSelKey} illustrates these selection-regions on
+the sky. These form FoM 1.1-1.4, and have to-date been run for the
+OpSim runs \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} (Baseline cadence),
+\opsimdbref{opstwoPS} (similar to PanSTARRS-1), and the
+recently-completed {\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004} (which applies
+Wide-Fast-Deep cadence to the inner Galactic Plane). From the point of
+view of parallax and proper motion, the latter two strategies do not
+negatively impact the non-plane regions, but they {\it substantially}
+improve the sampling for proper motions and parallax (again,
+neglecting the effects of spatial crowding).
+
+At the time of writing, FoMs 2-5 in Table
+\ref{tab_SummaryMWAstrometry} are still at the specification stage,
+and are described in Section
+\ref{sec:\secname:MW_Astrometry_furtherwork}.
+
+%%%% Figures used as ``key'' for the astrometry FoMs:
+
+\begin{figure}[h]
+  \begin{center}
+    \includegraphics[width=2.0in]{./figs/milkyway/astromPanels/MW_Astrom_FoM_properMotion_minion_1016_all_skymap.png}
+  \includegraphics[width=2.0in]{./figs/milkyway/astromPanels/MW_Astrom_FoM_properMotion_minion_1016_plane_skymap.png}
+  \includegraphics[width=2.0in]{./figs/milkyway/astromPanels/MW_Astrom_FoM_properMotion_minion_1016_nonPlane_skymap.png}
+    \end{center}
+  \caption{Selection regions for the Astrometry Figures of Merit (FoMs) 1.1-1.4. Figures of Merit 1.1 and 1.3 refer to the ``main survey'' region shown in the middle panel (which for the FoM also avoids the region of the South Galactic Pole). The right panel shows the inner Plane region to which FoMs 1.2 \& 1.4 refer. The left-hand panel shows the entire survey region for reference. This example shows run \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence}. See Table \ref{tab_SummaryMWAstrometry} and Section \ref{sec:\secname:MW_Astrometry_metrics}.}
+  \label{fig_astrom_RegionSelKey}
+\end{figure}
 
 \subsection{Topics that will need to be addressed}
 \label{sec:\secname:MW_Astrometry_furtherwork}
@@ -506,10 +540,20 @@ \subsubsection{Further work on science Figures of Merit}
   \begin{tabular}{l|p{6cm}|c|c|c|c|p{5cm}}
     FoM & Brief description & {\rotatebox{90}{\opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} }} & {\rotatebox{90}{\opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} }} & {\rotatebox{90}{\scriptsize{\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004} }} &  {\rotatebox{90}{future run 2}} & Notes \\
     \hline
-    1.1 & \footnotesize{Median parallax error at $r=21$ (main survey)}      & - & - & - & - & \footnotesize{Summarize the presentation in Figures \ref{fig_astrom_ByTime_PACoverage}-\ref{fig_astrom_ByFilter_paError}} \\
-    1.2. & \footnotesize{Median parallax error at $r=21$ (plane)}   & - & - & - & - &  - \\
-    1.3. & \footnotesize{Median proper motion error at $r=21$ (main survey)}  & - & - & - & - &  \footnotesize{Take median of Figure \ref{fig_astrom_ByTime_pmError} over the ``plane'' region.} \\
-    1.4. & \footnotesize{Median proper motion error at $r=21$ (plane)} & - & - & - & - &  - \\
+    1.1 & \footnotesize{Median parallax error at $r=21$ (main survey)}      & 0.69  & 0.72 & 0.69 & - & 
+%\footnotesize{Summarize the presentation in Figures \ref{fig_astrom_ByTime_PACoverage}-\ref{fig_astrom_ByFilter_paError} }
+\footnotesize{See region definitions in Figure \ref{fig_astrom_RegionSelKey}.}
+\\
+    1.2. & \footnotesize{Median parallax error at $r=21$ (plane)}   & 2.68 & {\bf 0.91} & {\bf 0.89} & - & 
+\footnotesize{Smaller values are better.}\\
+    1.3. & \footnotesize{Median proper motion error at $r=21$ (main survey)}  & 0.19 & 0.19 & 0.19 & - &  
+%\footnotesize{Take median of Figure \ref{fig_astrom_ByTime_pmError} over the ``plane'' region.} 
+\\
+    1.4. & \footnotesize{Median proper motion error at $r=21$ (plane)} & 16.7
+%$^\dagger$ 
+& {\bf 0.26} & {\bf 0.25} & - & 
+%\footnotesize{$^\dagger$no, this is not a typo.} 
+\\
     \hline
     2.1. & \footnotesize{Number of streams LSST can discover via proper motions} & - & - & - & - &  - \\
     3.1. & \footnotesize{Uncertainty and bias in thin- and thick-disk differential age measurement via white dwarfs} & - & - & - & - &  - \\

whitepaper/MilkyWay/MW_Disk.tex

@@ -470,19 +470,21 @@ \subsection{Figures of Merit}
   detect variability {\it before} the main Supernova event:} We have
 implemented a simple FoM for the Galactic Supernova case, using the
 parameters of SN2010mc as an example whose pre-SN outburst could be
-discovered first by LSST. The FoM is defined as
+discovered first by LSST. The FoM is defined as the density-weighted
+average fraction of transient events recovered, where the average is
+taken over the sight-lines within the simulated strategy:
 \begin{equation}
   FoM_{preSN} \equiv \frac{ \sum^{sightlines}_{i} f_{var, i} N_{\ast, i} } {\sum^{sightlines}_{i} N_{\ast, i}}
 \label{eqn:def_FOM_3p1}
 \end{equation}
-where $f_{var, i}$~is the fraction of transient events that LSST would
-detect for observing strategy including the $i$'th sightline,
-$N_{\ast,i}$~the number of stars present along the $i$'th sightline,
-and the FoM is normalized by the total number of stars returned by the
-density model over all sightlines. (For the two OpSim runs tested
-here, \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} and \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS}, the
-normalization factors differ by $\sim 2\%$.) FoM values are in the
-range $0.0 \le FoM_{preSN} \le 1.0$.
+Here $f_{var, i}$~is the fraction of transient events that
+LSST would detect for observing strategy including the $i$'th
+sightline, $N_{\ast,i}$~the number of stars present along the $i$'th
+sightline, and the FoM is normalized by the total number of stars
+returned by the density model over all sightlines. (For the OpSim
+runs tested here, \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} and
+\opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS}, the normalization factors differ by $\sim
+2\%$.) FoM values are in the range $0.0 \le FoM_{preSN} \le 1.0$.
 
 We assume the Pre-SN variability similar to the pre-SN outburst of
 SN2010mc \citep{2013Natur.494...65O}. The pre-SN variability is
@@ -612,35 +614,30 @@ \subsection{OpSim Analysis}
 stellar density metric, distance limits ($10$pc $\le d \le 80$kpc) are
 used to avoid biases in the FoM estimate by the Magellanic Clouds.
 
-{\it \bf Results:} $FoM_{preSN}$(\opsimdbref{db:baseCadence}) = 0.129,
-while
-$FoM_{preSN}$(\opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS})=0.826.\footnote{2016-04-25
+{\it \bf Results:} $FoM_{preSN}$(\opsimdbref{db:baseCadence})=0.13,
+while $FoM_{preSN}$(\opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS})=0.83.\footnote{2016-04-25
 For comparison, when run on 2015-era OpSim runs {\tt enigma\_1189}
 (Baseline strategy) and {\tt ops2\_1092} (PanSTARRS-like strategy) the
 results were 0.251 (Baseline) and 0.852 (PanSTARRS-like strategy). So
 the 2016-era OpSim runs show a sharper disadvantage than before to the
-Baseline cadence for the Galactic Supernova case.} See Figure
-\ref{f_opSim_GalacticSN} for a breakdown of this figure of merit across
-sightlines.
-
+Baseline cadence for the Galactic Supernova case.} Because \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} spends no time at all on certain regions of interest (like the South Polar cap and the Northern plane), it might be artificially advantaged over the Baseline survey. A more direct comparison is afforded by the recently-completed (at the time of writing) OpSim run {\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004}, which covers the same regions on the sky as \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} but applies the Wide-Fast-Deep strategy to the inner Galactic Plane. That strategy still shows a strong advantage compared to the Baseline survey, with $FoM_{preSN}$({\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004})=0.73, compared to 0.13 for Baseline cadence. See Table \ref{tab_SummaryMWDisk}. Figure \ref{f_opSim_GalacticSN} presents a breakdown of this figure of merit across sightlines, for the three observing strategies considered.
 
 \begin{figure}
 \begin{center}
-  \includegraphics[width=7cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_SkyMap_Baseline.png}
-  \includegraphics[width=7cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_SkyMap_PanSTARRS.png}
+  \includegraphics[width=5.25cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_SkyMap_Baseline.png}
+  \includegraphics[width=5.25cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_SkyMap_PanSTARRS.png}
+  \includegraphics[width=5.25cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_SkyMap_PlaneWFD.png}
 %  \includegraphics[width=6cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_Histogram_1092.pdf}
 %  \includegraphics[width=6cm]{./figs/milkyway/galacticSN_Histogram_1189.pdf}
   \caption{Figure of merit $FoM_{preSN}$~describing LSST's sensitivity
   to any pre-Supernova outburst for the Galactic Supernova science case,
-  broken down by sightline, as sky-maps. $FoM_{preSN}$~is estimated for
-  two OpSim runs (to-date); \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} (left; Baseline
-  cadence) and \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} (right; PanSTARRS-like
-  strategy). The normalizing factors $N_{\ast, total}$ are $3.692\times
-  10^{10}$~for \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} and $3.793 \times 10^{10}$~for
-  \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence}. The imprint of reduced sampling towards
+  broken down by sightline. $FoM_{preSN}$~is estimated for
+  three OpSim runs (to-date); \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} (left; Baseline
+  cadence), \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} (center; PanSTARRS-like
+  strategy), and {\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004} (which assigns Wide-Fast-Deep cadence to the inner Galactic Plane). The normalizing factors $N_{\ast, total}$ are $3.793 \times 10^{10}$~for both \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} and {\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004} (that both strategies have the same $N_\ast$~is not a surprise since both cover the same area) and $3.692\times
+  10^{10}$~for \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS}. The imprint of reduced sampling towards
   the inner plane can be clearly seen for \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence}.
-  Notice the difference in color scale between the left and right
-  panels. See \autoref{sec:MW_Disk:MW_Disk_analysis}}
+  Notice the difference in color scale between the panels. See \autoref{sec:MW_Disk:MW_Disk_analysis}}
 \label{f_opSim_GalacticSN}
 \end{center}
 \end{figure}
@@ -685,13 +682,13 @@ \subsection{Discussion}
     1.2 & \footnotesize{Uncertainty in dwarf nova duty cycle}   & - & - & - & - &  \footnotesize{LSST as initial trigger} \\
     2.1 & \footnotesize{Fraction of Novae detected}       & - & - & - & - &  - \\
     2.2 & \footnotesize{Fraction of Nova alerts}       & - & - & - & - &  - \\
-    3.1 & \footnotesize{Galactic Supernova pre-variability} & 0.13 & {\bf 0.83} & - & - & \footnotesize{Fraction of SN2010mc-like outbursts that LSST would detect; $FoM_{preSN} = f_{var} \times N_{\ast}$} \\
+    3.1 & \footnotesize{Galactic Supernova pre-variability} & 0.13 & {\bf 0.83} & 0.73 & - & \footnotesize{Fraction of SN2010mc-like outbursts that LSST would detect; $FoM_{preSN} = f_{var} \times N_{\ast}$} \\
     4.1 & \footnotesize{Fraction of LSST-triggered microlens candidates} & - & - & - & - & - \\
     4.2 & \footnotesize{Uncertainty in derived planetary mass function} & - & - & - & - & \footnotesize{LSST as initial microlens trigger} \\
 %    5.1a & \footnotesize{Median (over sight-lines) of the uncertainty in $E(B-V)$} & - & - & - & - & \footnotesize{(Most useful FoM probably a spatial map of the uncertainty.)} \\
 %    5.1b & \footnotesize{Variance (over sight-lines) of the uncertainty in $E(B-V)$} & - & - & - & - & - \\
   \end{tabular}
-\caption{Summary of figures-of-merit for the Galactic Disk science cases. The best value of each FoM is indicated in bold. Runs \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} and \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} refer to the Baseline and PanSTARRS-like strategies, respectively. Column {\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004} refers to a recently-completed OpSim run that includes the Plane in Wide-Fast-Deep observations. See \autoref{sec:MW_Disk}. }
+\caption{Summary of figures-of-merit for the Galactic Disk science cases. The best value of each FoM is indicated in bold. Runs \opsimdbref{db:baseCadence} and \opsimdbref{db:opstwoPS} refer to the Baseline and PanSTARRS-like strategies, respectively. Column {\tt astro\_lsst\_01\_1004} refers to a recently-completed OpSim run that includes the Plane in Wide-Fast-Deep observations. See \autoref{sec:MW_Disk:MW_Disk_analysis}. }
 \label{tab_SummaryMWDisk}
 \end{table}