Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt

# [Deprecated] Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station
# 500 MWe EGS Case Study Modeled on Fervo Cape Station after Fervo's April 2025 upsizing announcement:
#   https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/
# See documentation: https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html

# *** ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL PARAMETERS ***
# *************************************
Economic Model, 5, -- SAM Single Owner PPA

Starting Electricity Sale Price, 0.095, -- Upper end of ranges given in https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal
Electricity Escalation Rate Per Year, 0.00057, -- calibrated to reach 10 cents/kWh at project year 11
Ending Electricity Sale Price, 0.15, -- Note that this value does not directly determine price at the end of the project life, but rather as a cap as the maximum price to which the starting price can escalate.
Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1

Discount Rate, 0.12
Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .6, -- Based on fraction of CAPEX with $1 billion in sponsor equity per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/
Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .056

Inflation Rate, .023, -- US inflation as of April 2025
Construction Years, 1, -- Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025)

Combined Income Tax Rate, .28
Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0.3
Property Tax Rate, 0

Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation, 1900, -- https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects

Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update)
Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well

Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware.
Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware.
Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Baseline stimulation cost includes indirect costs

Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/

# *** SURFACE & SUBSURFACE TECHNICAL PARAMETERS ***
# *************************************************
End-Use Option, 1, -- Electricity
Power Plant Type, 2, -- Supercritical ORC
Plant Lifetime, 30, -- Per https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/

Reservoir Model, 1, -- Multiple Parallel Fractures
Reservoir Depth, 8500 feet, -- https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf

Gradient 1, 74, -- temperature at 8500 ft: 200 degC (https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf); 228.89 degC @ 9824 ft (https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C)
Number of Segments, 1

Reservoir Density, 2800, -- per https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B: phyllite + quartzite + diorite + granodiorite
Reservoir Heat Capacity, 790
Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 3.05
Reservoir Porosity, 0.0118
Reservoir Impedance, 0.001565

Reservoir Volume Option, 1, -- FRAC_NUM_SEP: Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input
Number of Fractures, 12036, -- 102 fractures per well
Fracture Separation, 18, -- Per https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/, lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing.
Fracture Shape, 3, -- Square
Fracture Height, 165.3, -- Based on total fracture surface area of 30 million ft^2 per well https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2025/Fercho.pdf
Number of Doublets, 59

Production Flow Rate per Well, 107, -- Maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station per https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal
Production Well Diameter, 9.625, -- Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter"
Injection Well Diameter, 9.625
Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1
Injection Temperature, 53.6, -- GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature
Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3
Ambient Temperature, 10 degC
Surface Temperature, 10 degC

Maximum Drawdown, 0.0153, -- Drawdown value that prevents minimum net electricity generation from going below 500 MWe
Water Loss Fraction, 0.15, -- Estimated to be between 10 and 20%

Utilization Factor, .9
Plant Outlet Pressure, 1000 psi, -- https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C
Production Wellhead Pressure, 325 psi, -- https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C
Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80

Well Geometry Configuration, 4, -- L
Number of Multilateral Sections, 0, -- This parameter is set to 0 because, for this case study, the cost of horizontal drilling (which would otherwise account for approximately 118 multilateral sections) is included within the 'vertical drilling cost.' This approach allows us to more directly convey the overall well drilling and completion cost, which is under $4 million.
Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4700 feet, -- Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. p. 3. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C
Multilaterals Cased, True

# *** SIMULATION PARAMETERS ***
# *****************************
Maximum Temperature, 500
Time steps per year, 12