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fix links in getting-started
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nbs/docs/getting-started/getting_Started_complete.ipynb

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"source": [
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":::{.callout-warning collapse=\"true\"}\n",
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"## Prerequisites\n",
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"This Guide assumes basic familiarity with StatsForecast. For a minimal example visit the [Quick Start](./1_Getting_Started_short).\n",
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"This Guide assumes basic familiarity with StatsForecast. For a minimal example visit the [Quick Start](./getting_started_short.html).\n",
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":::\n",
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"\n",
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"Follow this article for a step-by-step guide on building a production-ready forecasting pipeline for multiple time series. \n",
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"## Not Covered in this guide\n",
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"\n",
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"* Forecasting at scale using clusters on the cloud. \n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/ETS_ray_m5) using Ray clusters.\n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/Prophet_spark_m5) using Spark clusters.\n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/ets_ray_m5.html) using Ray clusters.\n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/prophet_spark_m5.html) using Spark clusters.\n",
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" * Learn how to predict [1M series in less than 30min](https://www.anyscale.com/blog/how-nixtla-uses-ray-to-accurately-predict-more-than-a-million-time-series).\n",
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"\n",
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"* Training models on Multiple Seasonalities. \n",
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" * Learn to use multiple seasonality in this [Electricity Load forecasting](../tutorials/ElectricityLoadForecasting) tutorial.\n",
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" * Learn to use multiple seasonality in this [Electricity Load forecasting](../tutorials/electricityloadforecasting.html) tutorial.\n",
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"\n",
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"* Using external regressors or exogenous variables\n",
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" * Follow this tutorial to [include exogenous variables](../how-to-guides/Exogenous) like weather or holidays or static variables like category or family. \n",
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" * Follow this tutorial to [include exogenous variables](../how-to-guides/exogenous.html) like weather or holidays or static variables like category or family. \n",
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"\n",
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"* Comparing StatsForecast with other popular libraries.\n",
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" * You can reproduce our benchmarks [here](https://github.com/Nixtla/statsforecast/tree/main/experiments).\n",
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"source": [
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"## Install libraries\n",
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"\n",
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"We assume you have StatsForecast already installed. Check this guide for instructions on [how to install StatsForecast](./0_Installation)."
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"We assume you have StatsForecast already installed. Check this guide for instructions on [how to install StatsForecast](./installation.html)."
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]
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},
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{
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"\n",
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"* **Theta Models:** fit two theta lines to a deseasonalized time series, using different techniques to obtain and combine the two theta lines to produce the final forecasts. Examples: Theta, DynamicTheta\n",
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"\n",
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"Here you can check the complete list of [models](../../src/core/models_intro) .\n",
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"Here you can check the complete list of [models](../../src/core/models_intro.html) .\n",
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"\n",
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"For this example we will use:\n",
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"\n",
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"source": [
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"We fit the models by instantiating a new `StatsForecast` object with the following parameters:\n",
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"\n",
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"* `models`: a list of models. Select the models you want from [models](../../src/core/models_intro) and import them.\n",
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"* `models`: a list of models. Select the models you want from [models](../../src/core/models_intro.html) and import them.\n",
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"\n",
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"* `freq`: a string indicating the frequency of the data. (See [pandas available frequencies](https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/timeseries.html#offset-aliases).)\n",
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"\n",

nbs/docs/getting-started/getting_Started_complete_polars.ipynb

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"source": [
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":::{.callout-warning collapse=\"true\"}\n",
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"## Prerequisites\n",
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"This Guide assumes basic familiarity with StatsForecast. For a minimal example visit the [Quick Start](./Getting_Started_short)\n",
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"This Guide assumes basic familiarity with StatsForecast. For a minimal example visit the [Quick Start](./getting_started_short.html)\n",
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":::\n",
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"\n",
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"Follow this article for a step-by-step guide on building a production-ready forecasting pipeline for multiple time series. \n",
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"## Not Covered in this guide\n",
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"\n",
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"* Forecasting at scale using clusters on the cloud. \n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/ETS_ray_m5) using Ray clusters.\n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/Prophet_spark_m5) using Spark clusters.\n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/ets_ray_m5.html) using Ray clusters.\n",
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" * [Forecast the M5 Dataset in 5min](../experiments/prophet_spark_m5.html) using Spark clusters.\n",
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" * Learn how to predict [1M series in less than 30min](https://www.anyscale.com/blog/how-nixtla-uses-ray-to-accurately-predict-more-than-a-million-time-series).\n",
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"\n",
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"* Training models on Multiple Seasonalities. \n",
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" * Learn to use multiple seasonality in this [Electricity Load forecasting](../tutorials/ElectricityLoadForecasting) tutorial.\n",
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" * Learn to use multiple seasonality in this [Electricity Load forecasting](../tutorials/electricityloadforecasting.html) tutorial.\n",
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"\n",
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"* Using external regressors or exogenous variables\n",
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" * Follow this tutorial to [include exogenous variables](../how-to-guides/Exogenous) like weather or holidays or static variables like category or family. \n",
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" * Follow this tutorial to [include exogenous variables](../how-to-guides/exogenous.html) like weather or holidays or static variables like category or family. \n",
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"\n",
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"* Comparing StatsForecast with other popular libraries.\n",
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" * You can reproduce our benchmarks [here](https://github.com/Nixtla/statsforecast/tree/main/experiments).\n",
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"source": [
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"## Install libraries\n",
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"\n",
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"We assume you have StatsForecast already installed. Check this guide for instructions on [how to install StatsForecast](./0_Installation)."
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"We assume you have StatsForecast already installed. Check this guide for instructions on [how to install StatsForecast](./installation.html)."
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]
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},
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{
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"\n",
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"* **Theta Models:** fit two theta lines to a deseasonalized time series, using different techniques to obtain and combine the two theta lines to produce the final forecasts. Examples: Theta, DynamicTheta\n",
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"\n",
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"Here you can check the complete list of [models](../models_intro.qmd).\n",
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"Here you can check the complete list of [models](../../src/core/models_intro.html).\n",
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"\n",
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"For this example we will use:\n",
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"\n",
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"source": [
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"We fit the models by instantiating a new `StatsForecast` object with the following parameters:\n",
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"\n",
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"* `models`: a list of models. Select the models you want from [models](../../src/core/models_intro) and import them.\n",
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"* `models`: a list of models. Select the models you want from [models](../../src/core/models_intro.html) and import them.\n",
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"\n",
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"* `freq`: a string indicating the frequency of the data. (See [panda's available frequencies](https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/timeseries.html#offset-aliases).) This is also available with Polars.\n",
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"\n",

nbs/docs/getting-started/getting_Started_short.ipynb

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"`StatsForecast` follows the sklearn model API. For this minimal example, you will create an instance of the StatsForecast class and then call its `fit` and `predict` methods. We recommend this option if speed is not paramount and you want to explore the fitted values and parameters. \n",
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"\n",
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":::{.callout-tip}\n",
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"If you want to forecast many series, we recommend using the `forecast` method. Check this [Getting Started with multiple time series](../../2_Getting_Started_complete) guide. \n",
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"If you want to forecast many series, we recommend using the `forecast` method. Check this [Getting Started with multiple time series](./getting_started_complete.html) guide. \n",
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":::\n",
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"\n",
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"The input to StatsForecast is always a data frame in [long format](https://www.theanalysisfactor.com/wide-and-long-data/) with three columns: `unique_id`, `ds` and `y`:\n",
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"\n",
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"As an example, let\u2019s look at the US Air Passengers dataset. This time series consists of monthly totals of a US airline passengers from 1949 to 1960. The CSV is available [here](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/chirag19/air-passengers).\n",
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"\n",
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"We assume you have StatsForecast already installed. Check this guide for instructions on [how to install StatsForecast](../../0_Installation).\n",
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"We assume you have StatsForecast already installed. Check this guide for instructions on [how to install StatsForecast](./installation.html).\n",
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"\n",
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"First, we\u2019ll import the data:"
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]
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"We fit the model by instantiating a new `StatsForecast` object with its [two required parameters](../../models):\n",
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"* `models`: a list of models. Select the models you want from [models](../../models) and import them. For this example, we will use a `AutoARIMA` model. We set `season_length` to 12 because we expect seasonal effects every 12 months. (See: [Seasonal periods](https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/seasonal-periods/))\n",
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"We fit the model by instantiating a new `StatsForecast` object with its [two required parameters](../../src/core/models.html):\n",
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"* `models`: a list of models. Select the models you want from [models](../../src/core/models.html) and import them. For this example, we will use a `AutoARIMA` model. We set `season_length` to 12 because we expect seasonal effects every 12 months. (See: [Seasonal periods](https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/seasonal-periods/))\n",
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"\n",
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"* `freq`: a string indicating the frequency of the data. (See [pandas available frequencies](https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/timeseries.html#offset-aliases).)\n",
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"\n",
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":::{.callout-tip}\n",
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"## Next Steps\n",
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"\n",
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"* Build and end-to-end forecasting pipeline following best practices in [End to End Walkthrough](./2_Getting_Started_complete)\n",
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"* [Forecast millions of series](../experiments/Prophet_spark_m5) in a scalable cluster in the cloud using Spark and Nixtla\n",
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"* [Detect anomalies](../tutorials/AnomalyDetection) in your past observations\n",
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"* Build and end-to-end forecasting pipeline following best practices in [End to End Walkthrough](./getting_started_complete.html)\n",
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"* [Forecast millions of series](../experiments/prophet_spark_m5.html) in a scalable cluster in the cloud using Spark and Nixtla\n",
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"* [Detect anomalies](../tutorials/anomalydetection.html) in your past observations\n",
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":::"
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]
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},

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