Format check_calibrated_estimates_interactive.py

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>

Author: baogorek

policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/check_calibrated_estimates_interactive.py

@@ -5,16 +5,16 @@
 
 from policyengine_us import Microsimulation
 
-#H5_PATH = 'hf://policyengine/test/'
-H5_PATH = '/home/baogorek/devl/sep/policyengine-us-data/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/projected_datasets/'
+# H5_PATH = 'hf://policyengine/test/'
+H5_PATH = "/home/baogorek/devl/sep/policyengine-us-data/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/projected_datasets/"
 
 # 2027 --------------------------------------
-sim = Microsimulation(dataset = H5_PATH + "2027.h5")
+sim = Microsimulation(dataset=H5_PATH + "2027.h5")
 parameters = sim.tax_benefit_system.parameters
 
 ## Total social security
-assert sim.default_calculation_period == '2027'
-ss_estimate_cost_b = sim.calculate("social_security").sum() / 1E9
+assert sim.default_calculation_period == "2027"
+ss_estimate_cost_b = sim.calculate("social_security").sum() / 1e9
 
 ### Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G10 (nominal dollars in billions)
 ### Intermediate scenario for row 69, for Intermediate Scenario, 2027, Cost is: $1,715 billion
@@ -23,8 +23,9 @@
 
 ## Taxable Payroll for Social Security
 taxible_estimate_b = (
-    sim.calculate("taxable_earnings_for_social_security").sum() / 1E9
-    + sim.calculate("social_security_taxable_self_employment_income").sum() / 1E9
+    sim.calculate("taxable_earnings_for_social_security").sum() / 1e9
+    + sim.calculate("social_security_taxable_self_employment_income").sum()
+    / 1e9
 )
 
 ### Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G6 (nominal dollars in billions)
@@ -49,23 +50,24 @@
 
 
 # 2100 --------------------------------------
-sim = Microsimulation(dataset = H5_PATH + "2100.h5")
+sim = Microsimulation(dataset=H5_PATH + "2100.h5")
 parameters = sim.tax_benefit_system.parameters
 
 ## Total social security
-assert sim.default_calculation_period == '2100'
-ss_estimate_cost_b = sim.calculate("social_security").sum() / 1E9
+assert sim.default_calculation_period == "2100"
+ss_estimate_cost_b = sim.calculate("social_security").sum() / 1e9
 
 ### Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G10 (nominal dollars in billions)
 ### Intermediate scenario for row 69, for Intermediate Scenario, 2100, Cost is: $34,432 billion
-ss_trustees_cost_b = 34_432 
+ss_trustees_cost_b = 34_432
 # Rounding takes it off a bit. We calibrated to CPI ratio times 2025-dollar cost
-assert np.allclose(ss_estimate_cost_b, ss_trustees_cost_b, rtol=.0001)
+assert np.allclose(ss_estimate_cost_b, ss_trustees_cost_b, rtol=0.0001)
 
 ## Taxable Payroll for Social Security
 taxible_estimate_b = (
-    sim.calculate("taxable_earnings_for_social_security").sum() / 1E9
-    + sim.calculate("social_security_taxable_self_employment_income").sum() / 1E9
+    sim.calculate("taxable_earnings_for_social_security").sum() / 1e9
+    + sim.calculate("social_security_taxable_self_employment_income").sum()
+    / 1e9
 )
 
 ### Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G6 (nominal dollars in billions)
@@ -86,17 +88,19 @@
 ### "Mid Year" CSV from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/Population/2024/Population2024.html
 ### Row 16067, Col C, contains 5162540
 ss_age6_pop = 5_162_540
-assert np.allclose(ss_age6_pop, total_age6_est, atol = 1)
+assert np.allclose(ss_age6_pop, total_age6_est, atol=1)
 
 # Taxation of benefits -------
 # Trustees report stops at 2099 so project at current rate one year out, bring to billions
 sim.default_calculation_period
-hi_tob_trustees = 1761.5 
-hi_tob_estimate_b = sim.calculate("tob_revenue_medicare_hi", map_to = "household").sum() / 1E9
+hi_tob_trustees = 1761.5
+hi_tob_estimate_b = (
+    sim.calculate("tob_revenue_medicare_hi", map_to="household").sum() / 1e9
+)
 hi_tob_estimate_b
 
-oasdi_tob_trustees = 2101.3 
-oasdi_tob_estimate_b = sim.calculate("tob_revenue_oasdi").sum() / 1E9
+oasdi_tob_trustees = 2101.3
+oasdi_tob_estimate_b = sim.calculate("tob_revenue_oasdi").sum() / 1e9
 oasdi_tob_estimate_b
 
 
@@ -125,17 +129,14 @@ def create_h6_reform():
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE": {},
-
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SINGLE": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.JOINT": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SEPARATE": {},
-
         # Rates - Base (Tier 1)
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.benefit_cap": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.excess": {},
-
         # Rates - Additional (Tier 2 - HI)
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.benefit_cap": {},
         "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.excess": {},
@@ -174,29 +175,49 @@ def create_h6_reform():
         # The swapped rate error is 14x smaller and aligns with tax-cutting intent.
 
         # Tier 1 (Base): HI ONLY (35%)
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.benefit_cap"][period] = 0.35
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.excess"][period] = 0.35
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.benefit_cap"
+        ][period] = 0.35
+        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.excess"][
+            period
+        ] = 0.35
 
         # Tier 2 (Additional): HI + OASDI Combined (85%)
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.benefit_cap"][period] = 0.85
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.excess"][period] = 0.85
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.benefit_cap"
+        ][period] = 0.85
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.excess"
+        ][period] = 0.85
 
         # --- SET THRESHOLDS (MIN/MAX SWAP) ---
         # Always put the smaller number in 'base' and larger in 'adjusted_base'
 
         # Single
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE"][period] = min(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SINGLE"][period] = max(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE"
+        ][period] = min(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SINGLE"
+        ][period] = max(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
 
         # Joint
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT"][period] = min(oasdi_target_joint, HI_JOINT)
-        reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.JOINT"][period] = max(oasdi_target_joint, HI_JOINT)
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT"
+        ][period] = min(oasdi_target_joint, HI_JOINT)
+        reform_payload[
+            "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.JOINT"
+        ][period] = max(oasdi_target_joint, HI_JOINT)
 
         # Map other statuses (Head/Surviving Spouse -> Single logic, Separate -> Single logic usually)
         # Note: Separate is usually 0, but for H6 strictness we map to Single logic here
         for status in ["HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE", "SEPARATE"]:
-            reform_payload[f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.{status}"][period] = min(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
-            reform_payload[f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.{status}"][period] = max(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
+            reform_payload[
+                f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.{status}"
+            ][period] = min(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
+            reform_payload[
+                f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.{status}"
+            ][period] = max(oasdi_target_single, HI_SINGLE)
 
     # --- PHASE 2: ELIMINATION (2054+) ---
     # OASDI is gone. We only collect HI.
@@ -207,26 +228,46 @@ def create_h6_reform():
 
     # 1. Set Thresholds to "HI Only" mode
     # Base = $34k / $44k
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE"][elim_period] = HI_SINGLE
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT"][elim_period] = HI_JOINT
+    reform_payload[
+        "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE"
+    ][elim_period] = HI_SINGLE
+    reform_payload[
+        "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT"
+    ][elim_period] = HI_JOINT
 
     # Adjusted = Infinity (Disable the second tier effectively)
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SINGLE"][elim_period] = 9_999_999
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.JOINT"][elim_period] = 9_999_999
+    reform_payload[
+        "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.SINGLE"
+    ][elim_period] = 9_999_999
+    reform_payload[
+        "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.JOINT"
+    ][elim_period] = 9_999_999
 
     # Map others
     for status in ["HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE", "SEPARATE"]:
-         reform_payload[f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.{status}"][elim_period] = HI_SINGLE
-         reform_payload[f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.{status}"][elim_period] = 9_999_999
+        reform_payload[
+            f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.{status}"
+        ][elim_period] = HI_SINGLE
+        reform_payload[
+            f"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.adjusted_base.main.{status}"
+        ][elim_period] = 9_999_999
 
     # 2. Set Rates for HI Only Revenue
     # Tier 1 (Now the ONLY tier) = 35% (HI Share)
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.benefit_cap"][elim_period] = 0.35
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.excess"][elim_period] = 0.35
+    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.benefit_cap"][
+        elim_period
+    ] = 0.35
+    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base.excess"][
+        elim_period
+    ] = 0.35
 
     # Tier 2 (Disabled via threshold, but zero out for safety)
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.benefit_cap"][elim_period] = 0.35
-    reform_payload["gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.excess"][elim_period] = 0.35
+    reform_payload[
+        "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.benefit_cap"
+    ][elim_period] = 0.35
+    reform_payload[
+        "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional.excess"
+    ][elim_period] = 0.35
 
     return reform_payload
 
@@ -236,8 +277,8 @@ def create_h6_reform():
 h6_reform = Reform.from_dict(h6_reform_payload, country_id="us")
 
 year = 2052
-dataset_path = f'/home/baogorek/devl/sep/policyengine-us-data/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/projected_datasets/{year}.h5'
-#dataset_path = f'hf://policyengine/test/{year}.h5'
+dataset_path = f"/home/baogorek/devl/sep/policyengine-us-data/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/projected_datasets/{year}.h5"
+# dataset_path = f'hf://policyengine/test/{year}.h5'
 
 # Baseline simulation
 baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset_path)
@@ -257,18 +298,29 @@ def create_h6_reform():
 print(f"revenue_impact (B): {revenue_impact / 1E9:.2f}")
 
 # Calculate taxable payroll
-taxable_ss_earnings = baseline.calculate("taxable_earnings_for_social_security")
-taxable_self_employment = baseline.calculate("social_security_taxable_self_employment_income")
-total_taxable_payroll = taxable_ss_earnings.sum() + taxable_self_employment.sum()
+taxable_ss_earnings = baseline.calculate(
+    "taxable_earnings_for_social_security"
+)
+taxable_self_employment = baseline.calculate(
+    "social_security_taxable_self_employment_income"
+)
+total_taxable_payroll = (
+    taxable_ss_earnings.sum() + taxable_self_employment.sum()
+)
 
 # Calculate SS benefits
 ss_benefits = baseline.calculate("social_security")
 total_ss_benefits = ss_benefits.sum()
 
-est_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll = 100 * revenue_impact / total_taxable_payroll
+est_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll = (
+    100 * revenue_impact / total_taxable_payroll
+)
 
 # From https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html:
 target_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll = -1.12
 
-assert np.allclose(est_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll, target_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll, atol = .01)
-
+assert np.allclose(
+    est_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll,
+    target_rev_as_pct_of_taxable_payroll,
+    atol=0.01,
+)