Further refining scenarios (#39)

* rewrite export ban on efuels

* decrease hydrogen underground storage costs

* hardcode heating stock

* hardcode old REMod results, adjust for district heating

* [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

* update variable template for ariadne

* add comment

* [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

---------

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

Author: Micha

Snakefile

@@ -281,6 +281,7 @@ rule modify_district_heat_share:
 
 rule modify_prenetwork:
     params:
+        efuel_export_ban=config_provider("solving", "constraints", "efuel_export_ban"),
         enable_kernnetz=config_provider("wasserstoff_kernnetz", "enable"),
         costs=config_provider("costs"),
         max_hours=config_provider("electricity", "max_hours"),
@@ -476,7 +477,7 @@ rule cluster_wasserstoff_kernnetz:
 rule download_ariadne_template:
     input:
         storage(
-            "https://github.com/iiasa/ariadne-intern-workflow/raw/main/attachments/2024-11-28_template_Ariadne.xlsx",
+            "https://github.com/iiasa/ariadne-intern-workflow/raw/main/attachments/2025-01-27_template_Ariadne.xlsx",
             keep_local=True,
         ),
     output:

config/config.yaml

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#run
 run:
-  prefix: 20250124-finalfixes
+  prefix: 20250130-morefinalfixes
   name:
   # - CurrentPolicies
   - KN2045_Bal_v4
@@ -432,6 +432,7 @@ solving:
         H2 pipeline retrofitted: 0.05
       fractional_last_unit_size: true
   constraints:
+    efuel_export_ban: true
     limits_capacity_max:
       Generator:
         onwind:

config/scenarios.manual.yaml

@@ -896,4 +896,3 @@ KN2045_Bal_HighDemand:
       2035: 0.18
       2040: 0.24
       2045: 0.29
-

scripts/build_existing_heating_distribution.py

@@ -57,14 +57,6 @@ def build_existing_heating():
     # data is for buildings only (i.e. NOT district heating) and represents the year 2012
     # TODO start from original file
 
-    # Add existing heating capacities, data comes from the study
-    # "Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030)
-    # heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables) "
-    # https://energy.ec.europa.eu/publications/mapping-and-analyses-current-and-future-2020-2030-heatingcooling-fuel-deployment-fossilrenewables-1_en
-    # file: "WP2_DataAnnex_1_BuildingTechs_ForPublication_201603.xls" -> "existing_heating_raw.csv".
-    # data is for buildings only (i.e. NOT district heating) and represents the year 2012
-    # TODO start from original file
-
     existing_heating = pd.read_csv(
         snakemake.input.existing_heating, index_col=0, header=0
     )

scripts/pypsa-de/additional_functionality.py

@@ -668,44 +668,7 @@ def add_h2_derivate_limit(n, investment_year, limits_volume_max):
             carrier_attribute="",
         )
 
-    # The following export bans  for DE are added unconditionally, independent of config
-    ct = "DE"
-    logger.info("Adding net export bans for H2 derivatives in DE")
-
-    for incarrier, outcarrier in [
-        ("EU methanol -> DE methanol", "DE methanol -> EU methanol"),
-        ("EU renewable gas -> DE gas", "DE renewable gas -> EU gas"),
-        ("EU renewable oil -> DE oil", "DE renewable oil -> EU oil"),
-    ]:
-        incoming = n.links.index[n.links.index == incarrier]
-        outgoing = n.links.index[n.links.index == outcarrier]
-        incoming_p = (
-            n.model["Link-p"].loc[:, incoming] * n.snapshot_weightings.generators
-        ).sum()
-        outgoing_p = (
-            n.model["Link-p"].loc[:, outgoing] * n.snapshot_weightings.generators
-        ).sum()
-
-        lhs = incoming_p - outgoing_p
-
-        cname = f"renewable{incarrier.split()[-1]}_export_ban-{ct}"
-
-        n.model.add_constraints(lhs >= 0, name=f"GlobalConstraint-{cname}")
-
-        if cname in n.global_constraints.index:
-            logger.warning(
-                f"Global constraint {cname} already exists. Dropping and adding it again."
-            )
-            n.global_constraints.drop(cname, inplace=True)
-
-        n.add(
-            "GlobalConstraint",
-            cname,
-            constant=0,
-            sense=">=",
-            type="",
-            carrier_attribute="",
-        )
+    # Export bans on efuels are implemented in modify_prenetwork by restricting p_max_pu of the DE -> EU links
 
 
 def adapt_nuclear_output(n):

scripts/pypsa-de/build_scenarios.py

@@ -178,9 +178,7 @@ def write_to_scenario_yaml(input, output, scenarios, df):
         #         f"For CO2 budget: Using {fallback_reference_scenario} as fallback reference scenario for {scenario}."
         #     )
         co2_budget_fractions = get_co2_budget(
-            df.loc[
-                snakemake.params.leitmodelle["general"], reference_scenario
-            ],
+            df.loc[snakemake.params.leitmodelle["general"], reference_scenario],
             co2_budget_source,
         )
 

scripts/pypsa-de/export_ariadne_variables.py

@@ -16,8 +16,8 @@
 from numpy import isclose
 
 from scripts._helpers import configure_logging, mock_snakemake
-from scripts.prepare_sector_network import prepare_costs
 from scripts.add_electricity import calculate_annuity
+from scripts.prepare_sector_network import prepare_costs
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 

scripts/pypsa-de/modify_cost_data.py

@@ -156,7 +156,12 @@ def carbon_component_fossils(costs, co2_price):
     )
     costs.at[("Fischer-Tropsch", "efficiency"), "source"] = "inverse of hydrogen-input"
 
+    logger.info(
+        f"Setting Fischer-Tropsch efficiency to 1 / hydrogen-input. New value: {costs.loc['Fischer-Tropsch', 'efficiency'].value} {costs.loc['Fischer-Tropsch', 'efficiency'].unit}."
+    )
+
     # increase FOM of offshore wind connection (fix for costs.csv)
+    logger.info(f"Setting FOM of offshore wind connections to 0.35 %.")
     costs.loc[("offwind-dc-connection-submarine", "FOM"), "value"] = 0.35
     costs.loc[("offwind-dc-connection-submarine", "FOM"), "unit"] = costs.at[
         ("offwind", "FOM"), "unit"
@@ -174,4 +179,7 @@ def carbon_component_fossils(costs, co2_price):
         ("offwind", "FOM"), "unit"
     ]
 
+    logger.info(f"Setting investment cost of hydrogen storage to 0.55 EUR/kWh.")
+    costs.loc[("hydrogen storage underground", "investment"), "value"] = 0.55
+
     costs.to_csv(snakemake.output[0])

scripts/pypsa-de/modify_existing_heating.py

@@ -17,23 +17,9 @@
 
     configure_logging(snakemake)
 
-    leitmodell = snakemake.params.leitmodelle["buildings"]
-    logger.info(f"Using {leitmodell} for heating demand modification.")
-
     existing_heating = pd.read_csv(snakemake.input.existing_heating, index_col=0)
 
-    ariadne = pd.read_csv(
-        snakemake.input.ariadne,
-        index_col=["model", "scenario", "region", "variable", "unit"],
-    ).loc[
-        leitmodell,
-        snakemake.params.fallback_reference_scenario,
-        "Deutschland",
-        :,
-        "million",
-    ]
-
-    logger.info("Heating demand before modification:{existing_heating.loc['Germany']}")
+    logger.info(f"Heating demand before modification:{existing_heating.loc['Germany']}")
 
     mapping = {
         "gas boiler": "Gas Boiler",
@@ -43,22 +29,26 @@
         "biomass boiler": "Biomass Boiler",
     }
 
-    year = "2020"
-    for tech in mapping:
-        stock = ariadne.at[
-            f"Stock|Space Heating|{mapping[tech]}",
-            year,
-        ]
-
-        peak = (
-            stock
-            * existing_heating.loc["Germany"].sum()
-            / ariadne.at[f"Stock|Space Heating", year]
-        )
+    new_values = pd.Series()
+
+    logger.warning(
+        f"Adjusting heating stock towards hard coded values from a previous REMod run. This is only a hotfix."
+    )  # Because REMod is not consistent and a better solution takes too long.
+
+    new_values["gas boiler"] = 11.44  # million
+    new_values["oil boiler"] = 5.99
+    new_values["air heat pump"] = 0.38
+    new_values["ground heat pump"] = 0.38
+    new_values["biomass boiler"] = 2.8
+
+    total_stock = new_values.sum()
+    existing_factor = existing_heating.loc["Germany"].sum() / total_stock
+
+    new_values *= existing_factor
+
+    for tech, peak in new_values.items():
         existing_heating.at["Germany", tech] = peak
 
-    logger.info(
-        f"Heating demand after modification with {leitmodell}: {existing_heating.loc['Germany']}"
-    )
+    logger.info(f"Heating demand after modification: {existing_heating.loc['Germany']}")
 
     existing_heating.to_csv(snakemake.output.existing_heating)

scripts/pypsa-de/modify_prenetwork.py

@@ -405,6 +405,12 @@ def unravel_carbonaceous_fuels(n):
         marginal_cost=0.01,
     )
 
+    if snakemake.params.efuel_export_ban:
+        logger.info(
+            "Efuel export ban: Setting p_max_pu to 0 for DE renewable oil -> EU oil"
+        )
+        n.links.loc["DE renewable oil -> EU oil", "p_max_pu"] = 0
+
     n.add(
         "Link",
         [
@@ -482,6 +488,12 @@ def unravel_carbonaceous_fuels(n):
         marginal_cost=0.01,
     )
 
+    if snakemake.params.efuel_export_ban:
+        logger.info(
+            "Efuel export ban: Setting p_max_pu to 0 for DE methanol -> EU methanol"
+        )
+        n.links.loc["DE methanol -> EU methanol", "p_max_pu"] = 0
+
     # add stores
     EU_meoh_store = n.stores.loc["EU methanol Store"].copy()
     n.add(
@@ -702,6 +714,12 @@ def unravel_gasbus(n, costs):
         marginal_cost=0.01,
     )
 
+    if snakemake.params.efuel_export_ban:
+        logger.info(
+            "Efuel export ban: Setting p_max_pu to 0 for DE renewable gas -> EU gas"
+        )
+        n.links.loc["DE renewable gas -> EU gas", "p_max_pu"] = 0
+
     ### add links between renewable and fossil gas buses
     n.add(
         "Link",