diff --git a/lectures/additive_functionals.md b/lectures/additive_functionals.md index 326fb085..b5319a55 100644 --- a/lectures/additive_functionals.md +++ b/lectures/additive_functionals.md @@ -35,15 +35,15 @@ In addition to what's in Anaconda, this lecture will need the following librarie ## Overview -Many economic time series display persistent growth that prevents them from being asymptotically stationary and ergodic. +Many economic time series display persistent growth that prevents them from being asymptotically stationary and ergodic. -For example, outputs, prices, and dividends typically display irregular but persistent growth. +For example, outputs, prices, and dividends typically display irregular but persistent growth. Asymptotic stationarity and ergodicity are key assumptions needed to make it possible to learn by applying statistical methods. -But there are good ways to model time series that have persistent growth that still enable statistical learning based on a law of large numbers for an asymptotically stationary and ergodic process. +But there are good ways to model time series that have persistent growth that still enable statistical learning based on a law of large numbers for an asymptotically stationary and ergodic process. -Thus, {cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` described two classes of time series models that accommodate growth. +Thus, {cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` described two classes of time series models that accommodate growth. They are @@ -63,9 +63,9 @@ We also describe and compute decompositions of additive and multiplicative proce 1. an asymptotically **stationary** component 1. a **martingale** -We describe how to construct, simulate, and interpret these components. +We describe how to construct, simulate, and interpret these components. -More details about these concepts and algorithms can be found in Hansen {cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` and Hansen and Sargent {cite}`Hans_Sarg_book`. +More details about these concepts and algorithms can be found in Hansen {cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` and Hansen and Sargent {cite}`Hans_Sarg_book`. Let's start with some imports: @@ -81,12 +81,12 @@ from scipy.stats import norm, lognorm {cite}`Hansen_2012_Eca` describes a general class of additive functionals. -This lecture focuses on a subclass of these: a scalar process $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ whose increments are driven by a Gaussian vector autoregression. +This lecture focuses on a subclass of these: a scalar process $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ whose increments are driven by a gaussian vector autoregression. Our special additive functional displays interesting time series behavior while also being easy to construct, simulate, and analyze by using linear state-space tools. -We construct our additive functional from two pieces, the first of which is a **first-order vector autoregression** (VAR) +We construct our additive functional from two pieces, the first of which is a **first-order vector autoregression** (VAR) ```{math} :label: old1_additive_functionals @@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ of $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ as linear functions of * a scalar constant $\nu$, * the vector $x_t$, and -* the same Gaussian vector $z_{t+1}$ that appears in the VAR {eq}`old1_additive_functionals` +* the same gaussian vector $z_{t+1}$ that appears in the VAR {eq}`old1_additive_functionals` In particular, @@ -117,8 +117,7 @@ In particular, y_{t+1} - y_{t} = \nu + D x_{t} + F z_{t+1} ``` -Here $y_0 \sim {\cal N}(\mu_{y0}, \Sigma_{y0})$ is a random -initial condition for $y$. +Here $y_0 \sim {\cal N}(\mu_{y0}, \Sigma_{y0})$ is a random initial condition for $y$. The nonstationary random process $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ displays systematic but random *arithmetic growth*. @@ -714,16 +713,14 @@ Notice the irregular but persistent growth in $y_t$. ### Decomposition -Hansen and Sargent {cite}`Hans_Sarg_book` describe how to construct a decomposition of -an additive functional into four parts: +Hansen and Sargent {cite}`Hans_Sarg_book` describe how to construct a decomposition of an additive functional into four parts: - a constant inherited from initial values $x_0$ and $y_0$ - a linear trend - a martingale - an (asymptotically) stationary component -To attain this decomposition for the particular class of additive -functionals defined by {eq}`old1_additive_functionals` and {eq}`old2_additive_functionals`, we first construct the matrices +To attain this decomposition for the additive functionals defined by {eq}`old1_additive_functionals` and {eq}`old2_additive_functionals`, we first construct the matrices $$ \begin{aligned} @@ -759,8 +756,7 @@ A convenient way to do this is to construct an appropriate instance of a [linear This will allow us to use the routines in [LinearStateSpace](https://github.com/QuantEcon/QuantEcon.py/blob/master/quantecon/lss.py) to study dynamics. -To start, observe that, under the dynamics in {eq}`old1_additive_functionals` and {eq}`old2_additive_functionals` and with the -definitions just given, +To start, observe that, under the dynamics in {eq}`old1_additive_functionals` and {eq}`old2_additive_functionals` and with the definitions just given, $$ \begin{bmatrix} @@ -844,8 +840,7 @@ interest. The class `AMF_LSS_VAR` mentioned {ref}`above ` does all that we want to study our additive functional. -In fact, `AMF_LSS_VAR` does more -because it allows us to study an associated multiplicative functional as well. +In fact, `AMF_LSS_VAR` does more because it allows us to study an associated multiplicative functional as well. (A hint that it does more is the name of the class -- here AMF stands for "additive and multiplicative functional" -- the code computes and displays objects associated with