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update tax smooth lecture
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lectures/tax_smooth.md

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@@ -20,7 +20,11 @@ In this lecture, we'll study a famous model of optimal tax policy that Robert Ba
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In this lecture, we'll study what is often called the "tax-smoothing model" using matrix multiplication and matrix inversion, the same tools that we used in this QuantEcon lecture {doc}`present values <pv>`.
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Formulas presented in {doc}`present value formulas<pv>` are at the core of the tax-smoothing model because we shall use them to compute the present value of government expenditures.
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This lecture is a sister lecture to the consumption-smoothing model of Milton Friedman {cite}`Friedman1956` and Robert Hall {cite}`Hall1978` that we studied in this QuantEcon lecture {doc}`consumption-smoothing <cons_smooth>`.
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Formulas presented in {doc}`present value formulas<pv>` are again at the core of the tax-smoothing model because we shall use them to compute the present value of government expenditures.
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The government's optimization problem is to choose a tax collection path that minimizes the present value of the costs of raising revenue.
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The key idea that inspired Barro was that temporary government spending surges (like wars or natural disasters) create a stream of expenditure requirements that could be optimally financed by issuing debt and raising taxes gradually over time.
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The model describes a government that operates from time $t=0, 1, \ldots, S$, faces a stream of expenditures $\{G_t\}_{t=0}^S$ and chooses a stream of tax collections $\{T_t\}_{t=0}^S$.
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We usually think of the government expenditure stream as exogenous spending requirements that the government must finance.
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The government expenditure stream is exogenous spending requirements that the government must finance.
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The model takes a government expenditure stream as an input, regarding it as "exogenous" in the sense of not being determined by the model.
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Analogous to {doc}`consumption-smoothing <cons_smooth>`, The model takes a government expenditure stream as an input, regarding it as "exogenous" in the sense of not being determined by the model.
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The government faces a gross interest rate of $R >1$ that is constant over time, at which it is free to borrow or lend, subject to limits that we'll describe below.
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where $g_1 > 0, g_2 > 0$.
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This is called the "present value of revenue-raising costs" in {citep}`Barro1979`
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This is called the "present value of revenue-raising costs" in {cite}`Barro1979`.
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When $\beta R \approx 1$, the quadratic term $-\frac{g_2}{2} T_t^2$ captures increasing marginal costs of taxation, implying that tax distortions rise more than proportionally with tax rates. This creates an incentive for tax smoothing.
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Indeed, we shall see that when $\beta R = 1$ (a condition assumed in many public finance models), criterion {eq}`cost` leads to smoother tax paths.
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By **smoother** we mean tax rates that are as close as possible to being constant over time.
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The preference for smooth tax paths that is built into the model gives it the name "tax-smoothing model", following {citep}`Barro1979`'s seminal work.
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The preference for smooth tax paths that is built into the model gives it the name "tax-smoothing model", following {cite}`Barro1979`'s seminal work.
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Let's dive in and do some calculations that will help us understand how the model works.
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$$
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\sum_{t=0}^S R^{-t} T_t = B_0 + h_0.
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$$ (eq:budget_intertemp)
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$$ (eq:budget_intertemp_tax)
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Equation {eq}`eq:budget_intertemp` says that the present value of tax collections must equal the sum of initial debt and the present value of government expenditures.
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Equation {eq}`eq:budget_intertemp_tax` says that the present value of tax collections must equal the sum of initial debt and the present value of government expenditures.
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When $\beta R = 1$, it is optimal for a government to smooth taxes by setting
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\begin{bmatrix}
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\lambda G_0 \cr 0 \cr 0 \cr \vdots \cr 0
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\end{bmatrix}
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$$ (eq:first_order_lin_diff)
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$$ (eq:first_order_lin_diff_tax)
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Multiplying both sides of {eq}`eq:first_order_lin_diff` by the inverse of the matrix on the left provides the solution
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Multiplying both sides of {eq}`eq:first_order_lin_diff_tax` by the inverse of the matrix on the left provides the solution
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```{math}
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:label: fst_ord_inverse
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:label: eq:fst_ord_inverse_tax
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\begin{bmatrix}
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G_1 \cr G_2 \cr G_3 \cr \vdots \cr G_S
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\end{bmatrix}
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```{exercise}
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:label: taxsmooth_ex1
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To get {eq}`fst_ord_inverse`, we multiplied both sides of {eq}`eq:first_order_lin_diff` by the inverse of the matrix $A$. Please confirm that
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To get {eq}`eq:fst_ord_inverse_tax`, we multiplied both sides of {eq}`eq:first_order_lin_diff_tax` by the inverse of the matrix $A$. Please confirm that
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$$
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\begin{bmatrix}

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