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Fix emphasis vs definitions in kalman and ifp_advanced
Changes per #721: - prior (kalman.md) - filtering distribution (kalman.md) - predictive (kalman.md) - Kalman gain (kalman.md) - predictive distribution (kalman.md) - savings (ifp_advanced.md) All terms changed from italic to bold as they are definitions per style guide.
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lectures/ifp_advanced.md

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@@ -264,7 +264,7 @@ assets is low.
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#### Finding Optimal Consumption
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The endogenous grid method (EGM) calls for us to take a grid of *savings*
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The endogenous grid method (EGM) calls for us to take a grid of **savings**
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values $s_i$, where each such $s$ is interpreted as $s = a -
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c$.
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lectures/kalman.md

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@@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ One way to summarize our knowledge is a point prediction $\hat x$
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* Then it is better to summarize our initial beliefs with a bivariate probability density $p$
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* $\int_E p(x)dx$ indicates the probability that we attach to the missile being in region $E$.
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The density $p$ is called our *prior* for the random variable $x$.
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The density $p$ is called our **prior** for the random variable $x$.
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To keep things tractable in our example, we assume that our prior is Gaussian.
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@@ -317,7 +317,7 @@ We have obtained probabilities for the current location of the state (missile) g
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This is called "filtering" rather than forecasting because we are filtering
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out noise rather than looking into the future.
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* $p(x \,|\, y) = N(\hat x^F, \Sigma^F)$ is called the *filtering distribution*
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* $p(x \,|\, y) = N(\hat x^F, \Sigma^F)$ is called the **filtering distribution**
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But now let's suppose that we are given another task: to predict the location of the missile after one unit of time (whatever that may be) has elapsed.
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@@ -331,7 +331,7 @@ Let's suppose that we have one, and that it's linear and Gaussian. In particular
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x_{t+1} = A x_t + w_{t+1}, \quad \text{where} \quad w_t \sim N(0, Q)
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```
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Our aim is to combine this law of motion and our current distribution $p(x \,|\, y) = N(\hat x^F, \Sigma^F)$ to come up with a new *predictive* distribution for the location in one unit of time.
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Our aim is to combine this law of motion and our current distribution $p(x \,|\, y) = N(\hat x^F, \Sigma^F)$ to come up with a new **predictive** distribution for the location in one unit of time.
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In view of {eq}`kl_xdynam`, all we have to do is introduce a random vector $x^F \sim N(\hat x^F, \Sigma^F)$ and work out the distribution of $A x^F + w$ where $w$ is independent of $x^F$ and has distribution $N(0, Q)$.
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@@ -356,7 +356,7 @@ $$
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$$
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The matrix $A \Sigma G' (G \Sigma G' + R)^{-1}$ is often written as
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$K_{\Sigma}$ and called the *Kalman gain*.
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$K_{\Sigma}$ and called the **Kalman gain**.
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* The subscript $\Sigma$ has been added to remind us that $K_{\Sigma}$ depends on $\Sigma$, but not $y$ or $\hat x$.
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@@ -373,7 +373,7 @@ Our updated prediction is the density $N(\hat x_{new}, \Sigma_{new})$ where
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\end{aligned}
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```
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* The density $p_{new}(x) = N(\hat x_{new}, \Sigma_{new})$ is called the *predictive distribution*
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* The density $p_{new}(x) = N(\hat x_{new}, \Sigma_{new})$ is called the **predictive distribution**
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The predictive distribution is the new density shown in the following figure, where
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the update has used parameters.

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