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@@ -494,6 +494,53 @@ with job separation, showing how workers optimally balance the trade-off between
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accepting current offers versus waiting for better opportunities.
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## The Ergodic Property
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Before we examine cross-sectional unemployment, it's important to understand why
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the time-average unemployment rate (fraction of time spent unemployed) equals the
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cross-sectional unemployment rate (fraction of agents unemployed at any given time).
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The employment dynamics in this model are governed by a **joint Markov chain** $(s_t, w_t)$ where:
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- $s_t \in \{\text{employed}, \text{unemployed}\}$ is the employment status
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- $w_t \in \{1, 2, \ldots, n\}$ is the wage index (current offer if unemployed, current wage if employed)
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This joint process is Markovian because:
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- The wage process $\{w_t\}$ evolves according to the transition matrix $P$ (independent of employment status)
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- Employment status transitions depend only on the current state $(s_t, w_t)$ and the reservation wage policy $\sigma$
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The joint chain $(s_t, w_t)$ has two crucial properties:
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1.**Irreducibility**: From any (status, wage) pair, an agent can eventually reach any other (status, wage) pair. This holds because:
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- Unemployed agents can become employed by accepting offers
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- Employed agents can become unemployed through separation (probability $\alpha$)
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- The wage process can transition between all wage states (assuming $P$ is irreducible)
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2.**Aperiodicity**: At any time, there's positive probability of remaining in the current state, so there's no cyclical pattern forcing returns at fixed intervals.
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These properties ensure the chain is **ergodic** with a unique stationary distribution $\pi$ over states $(s, w)$.
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For an ergodic Markov chain, the **Ergodic Theorem** guarantees:
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**Time average = Ensemble average**
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The fraction of time a single agent spends unemployed (across all wage states) converges to the cross-sectional unemployment rate:
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