|
| 1 | +--- |
| 2 | +title: Mutually exciting Hawkes process |
| 3 | +author: Guilherme Zagatti |
| 4 | +weave_options: |
| 5 | + fig_ext: ".png" |
| 6 | +--- |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +```julia |
| 9 | +using JumpProcesses, Graphs, Plots, Statistics, BenchmarkTools |
| 10 | +``` |
| 11 | + |
| 12 | +# Model and example solutions |
| 13 | + |
| 14 | +```julia |
| 15 | +function reset_history!(h; start_time = nothing) |
| 16 | + if start_time === nothing |
| 17 | + start_time = -Inf |
| 18 | + end |
| 19 | + @inbounds for i = 1:length(h) |
| 20 | + hi = h[i] |
| 21 | + ix = 0 |
| 22 | + while ((ix + 1) <= length(hi)) && hi[ix+1] <= start_time |
| 23 | + ix += 1 |
| 24 | + end |
| 25 | + end |
| 26 | + h[i] = ix == 0 ? eltype(h)[] : hi[1:ix] |
| 27 | + end |
| 28 | + nothing |
| 29 | +end |
| 30 | + |
| 31 | +function hawkes_rate(i::Int, g, h) |
| 32 | + function rate(u, p, t) |
| 33 | + λ, α, β = p |
| 34 | + x = zero(typeof(t)) |
| 35 | + for j in g[i] |
| 36 | + for _t in reverse(h[j]) |
| 37 | + λij = α*exp(-β*(t - _t)) |
| 38 | + if λij ≈ 0 break end |
| 39 | + x += λij |
| 40 | + end |
| 41 | + end |
| 42 | + return λ + x |
| 43 | + end |
| 44 | + return rate |
| 45 | +end |
| 46 | + |
| 47 | +function hawkes_jump(i::Int, g, h) |
| 48 | + rate = hawkes_rate(i, g, h) |
| 49 | + lrate(u, p, t) = p[1] |
| 50 | + urate = rate |
| 51 | + function L(u, p, t) |
| 52 | + _lrate = lrate(u, p, t) |
| 53 | + _urate = urate(u, p, t) |
| 54 | + return _urate == _lrate ? typemax(t) : 1/(2*_urate) |
| 55 | + end |
| 56 | + function affect!(integrator) |
| 57 | + push!(h[i], integrator.t) |
| 58 | + integrator.u[i] += 1 |
| 59 | + end |
| 60 | + return VariableRateJump(rate, affect!; lrate=lrate, urate=urate, L=L) |
| 61 | +end |
| 62 | + |
| 63 | +function hawkes_jump(u, g, h) |
| 64 | + return [hawkes_jump(i, g, h) for i in 1:length(u)] |
| 65 | +end |
| 66 | + |
| 67 | +function hawkes_problem(p, agg::QueueMethod; u=[0.], tspan=(0., 50.), save_positions=(false, true), |
| 68 | + g = [[1]], h = [[]]) |
| 69 | + dprob = DiscreteProblem(u, tspan, p) |
| 70 | + jumps = hawkes_jump(u, g, h) |
| 71 | + jprob = JumpProblem(dprob, agg, jumps...; |
| 72 | + dep_graph=g, save_positions=save_positions) |
| 73 | + return jprob |
| 74 | +end |
| 75 | + |
| 76 | +function f!(du, u, p, t) |
| 77 | + du .= 0 |
| 78 | + nothing |
| 79 | +end |
| 80 | + |
| 81 | +function hawkes_problem(p, agg; u=[0.], tspan=(0., 50.), save_positions=(false, true), |
| 82 | + g = [[1]], h = [[]]) |
| 83 | + oprob = ODEProblem(f!, u, tspan, p) |
| 84 | + jumps = hawkes_jump(u, g, h) |
| 85 | + jprob = JumpProblem(oprob, agg, jumps...; save_positions=save_positions) |
| 86 | + return jprob |
| 87 | +end |
| 88 | +``` |
| 89 | + |
| 90 | +```julia |
| 91 | +methods = (Direct(), QueueMethod()) |
| 92 | +shortlabels = [string(leg)[15:end-2] for leg in methods] |
| 93 | + |
| 94 | +V = 10 |
| 95 | +G = erdos_renyi(V, 0.2) |
| 96 | +g = [neighbors(G, i) for i in 1:nv(G)] |
| 97 | + |
| 98 | +u = [0. for i in 1:nv(G)] |
| 99 | +p = (0.5, 0.1, 2.0) |
| 100 | +tspan = (0., 50.) |
| 101 | +h = [eltype(tspan)[] for _ in 1:nv(G)] |
| 102 | + |
| 103 | +plots = [] |
| 104 | +for (i, method) in enumerate(methods) |
| 105 | + jump_prob = hawkes_problem(p, method; u=u, tspan=tspan, g=g, h=h) |
| 106 | + reset_history!(h) |
| 107 | + if typeof(method) <: QueueMethod |
| 108 | + sol = solve(jump_prob, SSAStepper()) |
| 109 | + else |
| 110 | + sol = solve(jump_prob, Tsit5()) |
| 111 | + end |
| 112 | + push!(plots, plot(sol.t, sol[1:V, :]', title=shortlabels[i], legend=false, format=fmt)) |
| 113 | +end |
| 114 | +plot(plots..., layout=(1, 2), format=fmt) |
| 115 | +``` |
| 116 | + |
| 117 | +# Benchmarking performance of the methods |
| 118 | + |
| 119 | +```julia |
| 120 | +Vs = append!([1], 5:5:100) |
| 121 | +Gs = [erdos_renyi(V, 0.2) for V in Vs] |
| 122 | +nsims = 50 |
| 123 | +benchmarks = Vector{Vector{BenchmarkTools.Trial}}() |
| 124 | +# initialize variables for BenchmarkTools |
| 125 | +_G = nothing |
| 126 | +_g = nothing |
| 127 | +_u = nothing |
| 128 | +_h = nothing |
| 129 | +_jump_prob = nothing |
| 130 | +_stepper = nothing |
| 131 | +_trial = nothing |
| 132 | +for method in methods |
| 133 | + println("Method: $(method)") |
| 134 | + push!(benchmarks, Vector{BenchmarkTools.Trial}()) |
| 135 | + _bs = benchmarks[end] |
| 136 | + for (i, V) in enumerate(Vs) |
| 137 | + trial = try |
| 138 | + _G = Gs[i] |
| 139 | + _g = [neighbors(_G, i) for i in 1:nv(_G)] |
| 140 | + _u = [0. for i in 1:nv(_G)] |
| 141 | + _h = [eltype(tspan)[] for _ in 1:nv(_G)] |
| 142 | + _jump_prob = hawkes_problem(p, method; u=u, tspan=tspan, g=g, h=h) |
| 143 | + if typeof(method) <: QueueMethod |
| 144 | + _stepper = SSAStepper() |
| 145 | + else |
| 146 | + _stepper = Tsit5() |
| 147 | + end |
| 148 | + @benchmark( |
| 149 | + solve(_jump_prob, _stepper), |
| 150 | + setup=(reset_history!(_h)), |
| 151 | + samples=nsims, |
| 152 | + evals=1, |
| 153 | + seconds=60, |
| 154 | + ) |
| 155 | + catch |
| 156 | + BenchmarkTools.Trial(BenchmarkTools.Parameters(samples=nsims, evals=1, seconds=60)) |
| 157 | + end |
| 158 | + push!(_bs, _trial) |
| 159 | + if (V == 1 || V % 20 == 0) && (length(_bs[end]) > 0) |
| 160 | + println("\tV = $V, b = $(_bs[end])") |
| 161 | + end |
| 162 | + end |
| 163 | + time = Vector{Vector{Float64}}(undef, nsims) |
| 164 | + run_benchmark!(time, jump_prob, stepper) |
| 165 | + push!(benchmarks, time) |
| 166 | +end |
| 167 | +``` |
| 168 | + |
| 169 | +```julia |
| 170 | +plot(yscale=:log10, xlabel="V", ylabel="Time (ns)", legend_position=:outertopright) |
| 171 | +for (i, method) in enumerate(methods) |
| 172 | + _bs, _Vs = [], [] |
| 173 | + for (i, b) in enumerate(benchmarks) |
| 174 | + if length(b) > 0 |
| 175 | + push!(_bs, median(b.times)) |
| 176 | + push!(_Vs, Vs[i]) |
| 177 | + end |
| 178 | + end |
| 179 | + plot!(_Vs, _bs, label="$method") |
| 180 | +end |
| 181 | +title!("Simulation, $nsims samples: processes × median time") |
| 182 | +``` |
| 183 | + |
| 184 | +```julia, echo = false |
| 185 | +using SciMLBenchmarks |
| 186 | +SciMLBenchmarks.bench_footer(WEAVE_ARGS[:folder],WEAVE_ARGS[:file]) |
| 187 | +``` |
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