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| 1 | +using StableRNGs: StableRNG |
| 2 | + |
1 | 3 | @timed_testset "turing_model" begin
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2 | 4 | DATA_DIR = joinpath("..", "data")
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3 | 5 | kidiq = CSV.read(joinpath(DATA_DIR, "kidiq.csv"), DataFrame)
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8 | 10 | f = @formula(kid_score ~ mom_iq * mom_hs)
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9 | 11 | @testset "standardize=false" begin
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10 | 12 | m = turing_model(f, kidiq)
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11 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 13 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
12 | 14 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 31.80 atol = 2.0
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13 | 15 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.507 atol = 0.2
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14 | 16 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ 0.22 atol = 0.2
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15 | 17 | end
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16 | 18 |
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17 | 19 | @testset "standardize=true" begin
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18 | 20 | m = turing_model(f, kidiq; standardize=true)
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19 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 21 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
20 | 22 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 0.000 atol = 0.2
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21 | 23 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.648 atol = 0.2
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22 | 24 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ 0.849 atol = 0.2
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25 | 27 | @testset "custom_priors" begin
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26 | 28 | priors = CustomPrior(Normal(), Normal(28, 5), nothing)
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27 | 29 | m = turing_model(f, kidiq; priors)
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28 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 30 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
29 | 31 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 28.758 atol = 2.0
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30 | 32 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.539 atol = 0.2
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31 | 33 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ 0.3863 atol = 0.2
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32 | 34 | end
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33 | 35 | @testset "explicit calling Normal" begin
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34 | 36 | m = turing_model(f, kidiq; model=Normal)
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35 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 37 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
36 | 38 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 31.80 atol = 2.0
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37 | 39 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.507 atol = 0.2
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38 | 40 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ 0.22 atol = 0.2
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42 | 44 | f = @formula(kid_score ~ mom_iq * mom_hs)
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43 | 45 | @testset "standardize=false" begin
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44 | 46 | m = turing_model(f, kidiq; model=TDist)
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45 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 47 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
46 | 48 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 33.31 atol = 2.0
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47 | 49 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.519 atol = 0.2
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48 | 50 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ 0.340 atol = 0.2
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52 | 54 | @testset "custom_priors" begin
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53 | 55 | priors = CustomPrior(Normal(), Normal(28, 5), Exponential(2))
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54 | 56 | m = turing_model(f, kidiq; model=TDist, priors)
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55 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 57 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
56 | 58 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 28.565 atol = 2.0
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57 | 59 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.551 atol = 0.2
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58 | 60 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ 0.255 atol = 0.2
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63 | 65 | f = @formula(switch ~ arsenic + dist + assoc + educ)
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64 | 66 | @testset "standardize=false" begin
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65 | 67 | m = turing_model(f, wells; model=Bernoulli)
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66 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 68 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
67 | 69 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ -0.153 atol = 0.2
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68 | 70 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.467 atol = 0.2
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69 | 71 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ -0.009 atol = 0.2
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72 | 74 | @testset "custom_priors" begin
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73 | 75 | priors = CustomPrior(Normal(), Normal(), nothing)
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74 | 76 | m = turing_model(f, wells; model=Bernoulli, priors)
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75 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 77 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
76 | 78 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ -0.155 atol = 0.2
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77 | 79 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.468 atol = 0.2
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78 | 80 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ -0.009 atol = 0.2
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82 | 84 | f = @formula(y ~ roach1 + treatment + senior + exposure2)
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83 | 85 | @testset "standardize=false" begin
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84 | 86 | m = turing_model(f, roaches; model=Poisson)
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85 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 87 | + # seed of 123 gives bad results |
| 88 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(124), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
86 | 89 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 2.969 atol = 0.5
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87 | 90 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.006 atol = 0.2
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88 | 91 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ -0.5145 atol = 0.2
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91 | 94 | @testset "custom_priors" begin
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92 | 95 | priors = CustomPrior(Normal(2, 5), Normal(), nothing)
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93 | 96 | m = turing_model(f, roaches; model=Poisson, priors)
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94 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 97 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
95 | 98 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 2.963 atol = 0.5
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96 | 99 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.006 atol = 0.2
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97 | 100 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ -0.5145 atol = 0.2
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101 | 104 | f = @formula(y ~ roach1 + treatment + senior + exposure2)
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102 | 105 | @testset "standardize=false" begin
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103 | 106 | m = turing_model(f, roaches; model=NegativeBinomial)
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104 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 107 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
105 | 108 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 2.448 atol = 0.5
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106 | 109 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.013 atol = 0.2
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107 | 110 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ -0.734 atol = 0.2
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111 | 114 | @testset "custom_priors" begin
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112 | 115 | priors = CustomPrior(Normal(), Normal(2, 5), Exponential(0.5))
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113 | 116 | m = turing_model(f, roaches; model=NegativeBinomial, priors)
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114 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 117 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
115 | 118 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 2.401 atol = 0.5
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116 | 119 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.013 atol = 0.2
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117 | 120 | @test quantile(chn)[Symbol("β[2]"), Symbol("50.0%")] ≈ -0.723 atol = 0.2
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121 | 124 | @timed_testset "Hierarchical Model" begin
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122 | 125 | f = @formula(y ~ (1 | cheese) + background)
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123 | 126 | m = turing_model(f, cheese)
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124 |
| - chn = sample(seed!(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
| 127 | + chn = sample(StableRNG(123), m, NUTS(), MCMCThreads(), 2_000, 2) |
125 | 128 | @test summarystats(chn)[:α, :mean] ≈ 68.07 atol = 2.0
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126 | 129 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("β[1]"), :mean] ≈ 6.60 atol = 0.2
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127 | 130 | @test summarystats(chn)[Symbol("zⱼ[1]"), :mean] ≈ 0.348 atol = 0.2
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