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Title of Lotka-Volterra notebook and slight reformatting
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examples/Lotka_Volterra_point_estimation_and_expert_stats.ipynb

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"id": "3cacfcfd-d638-4181-9c16-ba050ab5e367",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"# Differential Equation Example: Lotka-Volterra predetor prey dynamics\n",
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"# Rapid iteration with point estimation and expert statistics for Lotka-Volterra dynamics\n",
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"\n",
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"_Authors: Hans Olischläger_\n",
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"* Here is a strictly proper scoring rule that is optimal if the estimate, $\\hat \\theta$, is the true **mean** of the posterior:\n",
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" $$L(\\hat \\theta, \\theta; k) = | \\theta - \\hat \\theta |^2$$\n",
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" It is the well known squared error loss!\n",
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" $$L(\\hat \\theta, \\theta; k) = | \\theta - \\hat \\theta |$$\n",
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"* To estimate **quantiles**, the following is a strictly proper scoring rule:\n",
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"$$L(\\hat \\theta, \\theta; \\tau) = (\\hat \\theta - \\theta)(\\mathbf{1}_{\\hat \\theta - \\theta > 0} - \\tau)$$\n",
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"\n",
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" $$L(\\hat \\theta, \\theta; \\tau) = (\\hat \\theta - \\theta)(\\mathbf{1}_{\\hat \\theta - \\theta > 0} - \\tau)$$\n",
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" Here we write an indicator function as $\\mathbf{1}_{\\hat \\theta - \\theta > 0}$ to evaluate to 1 for overestimation (positive $\\hat \\theta - \\theta$) and $0$ otherwise.\n",
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"* Note, that when approximating the full distribution in BayesFlow we score a **probability estimate** $\\hat p(\\theta|x)$ with the log-score,\n",
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"$$L(\\hat p(\\theta|x), \\theta) = \\log (\\hat p(\\theta)) $$\n",
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"which is also a strictly proper scoring rule.\n",
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"\n",
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" $$L(\\hat p(\\theta|x), \\theta) = \\log (\\hat p(\\theta))$$\n",
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" which is also a strictly proper scoring rule.\n",
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"* What if you want to estimate something else? There might just be a loss function that corresponds to the estimator of exactly the quantity you are after.\n",
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"In relation to $q_1$ and $q_2$, where is $x=0$ and $x=1$? These two correspond to location (mean) and scale (standard deviation) of the standard normal.\n",
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"So we solve the equations\n",
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"$$\n",
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"\\begin{aligned}\n",
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" 0 &= \\tilde q_1 (1-\\alpha) + \\tilde q_2 \\alpha,\\\\\n",

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