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@@ -47,12 +47,12 @@ The workshop will take place on March 20, 2025 with the following schedule.
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| 10:15-11:00 |**Session 1a: Exploration**|
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| 11:00-11:15 |**Break**|
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| 11:15-12:00 |**Session 1b: Exploration**|
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| 12:00-1:00|**Lunch**|
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| 1:00-1:45|**Session 2: Calibration**|
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|1:45-2:00|**Break**|
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| 2:00-2:45|**Session 3: Inference**|
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|2:45-3:00|**Break**|
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| 3:00-3:30 |**Session 4: Stratification**|
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| 12:00-1:15|**Lunch**|
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| 1:15-2:00|**Session 2: Calibration**|
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|2:00-2:15|**Break**|
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| 2:15-3:00|**Session 3: Inference**|
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|3:00-3:15|**Break**|
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| 3:15-3:30 |**Session 4: Stratification**|
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| 3:30-3:45 |**Feedback**|
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| 3:45-4:00 |**Finishing and Packing Up**|
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@@ -97,25 +97,25 @@ There will not be enough time in the workshop to cover all of `macpan2`, so ther
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#### Session 1: Exploration
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Participants will learn about the following types of tasks required for exploring model simulations.
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You will learn about the following types of tasks required for exploring model simulations.
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*Find simulation models in the `macpan2`[library](#library-models) of starter models.
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*Create simulation models from scratch.
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*Create simple compartmental simulation models.
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*Find simulation models in the `macpan2`[library of models](https://canmod.github.io/macpan2/articles/example_models).
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* Run, summarize, and visualize simulations.
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* Identify sets of model quantities to be calibrated.
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* Describe the relationships between the values of parameter inputs and simulated outputs.
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*Prepare certain [types of data](#types-of-data) so that they can be compared with `macpan2` simulation output, both visually and numerically.
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*Make [modifications to models](#model-modification-tools) in the library.
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*Make modifications to existing model specifications.
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*Prepare data so that they can be visually compared with simulation output.
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* Understand the mathematics behind simulation models.
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* Cast a model as a particular [dynamical model type](#dynamical-model-types) (e.g. discrete-time recursion, ordinary differential equation).
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* Cast a model as a particular dynamical model type (e.g. discrete-time recursion, ordinary differential equation).
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#### Session 2: Calibration
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Participants will learn about the following types of tasks required for parameterizing models, for exploring scenarios and making inferences and predictions about a particular population and public health problem.
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You will learn about the following types of tasks required for parameterizing models, for exploring scenarios and making inferences and predictions about a particular population and public health problem.
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* Use [optimization](#optimization) to calibrate parameters (e.g., transmission rate) so that the discrepancy between observed and simulated data is minimized.
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* Use optimization to calibrate parameters (e.g., transmission rate) so that the discrepancy between observed and simulated data is minimized.
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* Apply basic troubleshooting techniques when optimization fails.
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* Express uncertainty in model parameters (e.g., transmission rate) with prior distributions.
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* Calibrate the functional form of time-variation of parameters.
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#### Session 3: Inference
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Participants will learn about the following types of tasks that are often necessary when making inferences using calibrated models.
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You will learn about the following types of tasks that are often necessary when making inferences using calibrated models.
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* Visualize goodness-of-fit.
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* Generate confidence intervals for estimated parameters.
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* Deciding when to refine parameter calibrations
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* Forecast model variables beyond the last data point.
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* Calculate prediction intervals measuring uncertainty about these forecasts.
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* Compare alternative scenarios for counter-factual causal analysis (e.g., how many deaths were saved due to vaccination?).
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* Compare alternative scenarios for counter-factual causal analysis.
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#### Session 4: Stratification
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Participants will learn about the importance of stratification of simple compartmental models. We will not do anything hands on in this session.
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You will learn about the importance of stratification of simple compartmental models. We will not do anything hands on in this session as there will not be enough time.
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* Stratify every compartment in the same way (e.g. by age, location).
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* Stratify infectious compartments (e.g. by symptom status).
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After participating in the workshop, modellers will be able to do the following.
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* Determine if compartmental modelling is an appropriate tool for a particular applied public health problem.
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* Use `macpan2` to create a simple compartmental model for a real public health problem.
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* Use `macpan2` to create a simple compartmental model for a public health problem.
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* Navigate the [documentation](https://canmod.github.io/macpan2) to learn how to solve compartmental modelling problems that `macpan2` is able to solve.
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