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MonthlyOutlookCommand.md

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Update MonthlyOutlook.tsv using the current market outlook framework and all known sources already referenced in MarketOutlook.html.

Rules for the update:

  1. Use these source families explicitly when forming the view: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Vanguard, State Street, CME FedWatch, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, OECD leading indicators.

  2. Treat the TSV values as 1-month tactical conviction scores, not predicted returns. The scale is from -100% to 100%.

  3. Keep the sheet historically realistic, not broadly optimistic. Do not make almost everything positive. Prefer a balanced distribution with a moderate positive bias only if the evidence clearly supports it.

  4. Target calibration: Average score should usually land around +5% to +10% unless there is a very strong macro reason to be more aggressive. Include a meaningful number of negative values when risk assets are not universally attractive.

  5. Keep the scores internally consistent with the current outlook logic: US quality, regions, bonds, gold, silver, dollar, petrol, DBA, DBB, sectors, and real estate should align with the latest narrative in MarketOutlook.html.

  6. Be careful with proxies and ETF mapping: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM map to US equity style views. EWJ, IEFA, EEMS, IEMG, EWW, INDA, EPP, ILF, VNM map to regional views. TIP, TLT, LQD, HYG, EMB map to rates and credit. EUO, FXY, FXA, FXB, FXE, FXF map to currency views. UNG, DBA, DBB, DBO, DBC, PALL, PPLT, SLV, GLD, SIL, GDX map to commodity and precious-metals views. XLP, XLK, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLU, XLV, XLF, XHB, ITB, IBB, AMLP, VNQ map to sectors and thematic equity exposures.

  7. Hard constraints: Every line must remain TSV in the format TICKER<TAB>SCORE%. No duplicate tickers unless the source file already requires them. No values outside -100% to 100%.

  8. After updating the file: Copy the full TSV content of MonthlyOutlook.tsv to the clipboard.

  9. In the response, also report: The mean, median, count of positive values, and count of negative values.

  10. If the resulting sheet looks too optimistic on breadth, revise it once before finishing.