[CI] EnterpriseGeoIpDownloaderIT testEnterpriseDownloaderTask failing

[elasticsearchmachine]

Build Scans:

• elasticsearch-intake #25303 / part1
• elasticsearch-periodic #9261 / openjdk23_checkpart1_java-matrix
• elasticsearch-periodic #9261 / openjdk17_checkpart1_java-fips-matrix
• elasticsearch-periodic #9261 / openjdk21_checkpart1_java-matrix
• elasticsearch-periodic #9254 / openjdk17_checkpart1_java-matrix
• elasticsearch-periodic #9247 / openjdk21_checkpart1_java-matrix
• elasticsearch-periodic #9233 / encryption-at-rest
• elasticsearch-periodic #9233 / openjdk17_checkpart1_java-matrix
• elasticsearch-periodic #9226 / third-party_geoip
• elasticsearch-periodic #9219 / third-party_geoip

Reproduction Line:

./gradlew ":modules:ingest-geoip:internalClusterTest" --tests "org.elasticsearch.ingest.geoip.EnterpriseGeoIpDownloaderIT.testEnterpriseDownloaderTask" -Dtests.seed=34C030C63CB67356 -Dtests.locale=so-Latn-SO -Dtests.timezone=America/Halifax -Druntime.java=24

Applicable branches:
8.18

Reproduces locally?:
N/A

Failure History:
See dashboard

Failure Message:

java.lang.AssertionError: 
Expected: <2>
     but: was <1>

Issue Reasons:

• [8.18] 13 failures in test testEnterpriseDownloaderTask (3.8% fail rate in 341 executions)
• [8.18] 2 failures in step openjdk17_checkpart1_java-matrix (18.2% fail rate in 11 executions)
• [8.18] 2 failures in step openjdk21_checkpart1_java-matrix (18.2% fail rate in 11 executions)
• [8.18] 2 failures in step third-party_geoip (20.0% fail rate in 10 executions)
• [8.18] 2 failures in step ubuntu-2204_platform-support-unix (20.0% fail rate in 10 executions)
• [8.18] 6 failures in pipeline elasticsearch-periodic (54.5% fail rate in 11 executions)
• [8.18] 3 failures in pipeline elasticsearch-periodic-platform-support (27.3% fail rate in 11 executions)

Note:
This issue was created using new test triage automation. Please report issues or feedback to es-delivery.

[elasticsearchmachine]

This has been muted on branch 9.0

Mute Reasons:

• [9.0] 2 failures in test testEnterpriseDownloaderTask (2.0% fail rate in 99 executions)

Build Scans:

• elasticsearch-periodic-platform-support #7412 / ubuntu-2204_platform-support-unix
• elasticsearch-pull-request #65578 / part-1

[elasticsearchmachine]

Pinging @elastic/es-data-management (Team:Data Management)

[nielsbauman]

cc @masseyke since you enabled it in #125884 with some more logging. I hope you'll have some useful information to go on this time :)

copying medium-risk from #115163

[elasticsearchmachine]

This has been muted on branch 8.x

Mute Reasons:

• [8.x] 2 failures in test testEnterpriseDownloaderTask (1.7% fail rate in 119 executions)

Build Scans:

• elasticsearch-periodic-platform-support #7432 / amazonlinux-2_platform-support-aws
• elasticsearch-pull-request #65997 / part-1

[nielsbauman]

See #126230 for some more failures.