diff --git a/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/InternalEngine.java b/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/InternalEngine.java
index 2f6f698620662..acd9cec8b064d 100644
--- a/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/InternalEngine.java
+++ b/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/InternalEngine.java
@@ -3550,4 +3550,13 @@ <T> T performActionWithDirectoryReader(SearcherScope scope, CheckedFunction<Dire
             store.decRef();
         }
     }
+
+    protected long estimateMergeBytes(MergePolicy.OneMerge merge) {
+        try (Searcher searcher = acquireSearcher("merge_memory_estimation", SearcherScope.INTERNAL)) {
+            return MergeMemoryEstimator.estimateMergeMemory(merge, searcher.getIndexReader());
+        } catch (AlreadyClosedException e) {
+            // Can't estimate if the searcher is closed
+            return 0L;
+        }
+    }
 }
diff --git a/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/MergeMemoryEstimator.java b/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/MergeMemoryEstimator.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..7567ee3e38284
--- /dev/null
+++ b/server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/engine/MergeMemoryEstimator.java
@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+/*
+ * Copyright Elasticsearch B.V. and/or licensed to Elasticsearch B.V. under one
+ * or more contributor license agreements. Licensed under the "Elastic License
+ * 2.0", the "GNU Affero General Public License v3.0 only", and the "Server Side
+ * Public License v 1"; you may not use this file except in compliance with, at
+ * your election, the "Elastic License 2.0", the "GNU Affero General Public
+ * License v3.0 only", or the "Server Side Public License, v 1".
+ */
+
+package org.elasticsearch.index.engine;
+
+import org.apache.lucene.codecs.KnnVectorsReader;
+import org.apache.lucene.codecs.lucene99.Lucene99HnswVectorsReader;
+import org.apache.lucene.codecs.perfield.PerFieldKnnVectorsFormat;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.FieldInfo;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.IndexReader;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.LeafReaderContext;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.MergePolicy;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.SegmentCommitInfo;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.SegmentReader;
+import org.apache.lucene.index.VectorEncoding;
+import org.elasticsearch.common.lucene.Lucene;
+
+import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Map;
+import java.util.stream.Collectors;
+
+/**
+ * Provides an estimation of the memory needed to merge segments.
+ *
+ * This class is a temporary solution until we have a better way to estimate the memory needed for merges in Lucene
+ * (see the corresponding <a href="https://github.com/apache/lucene/issues/14225">Lucene issue</a>)
+ * We can work iteratively in providing estimations for different types of fields and vector encodings.
+ */
+public class MergeMemoryEstimator {
+
+    // Determined empirically by using Accountable.ramBytesUsed() during merges on Lucene using an instrumented build of Lucene.
+    // Didn't adapted the ramBytesUsed() code for this as it depends on graph levels and size for non-zero levels, which are difficult
+    // to estimate without actually building the graph.
+    public static final long HNSW_PER_DOC_ESTIMATION = 348L;
+
+    /**
+     * Estimates the memory, in bytes, needed to merge the segments of the given merge.
+     */
+    public static long estimateMergeMemory(MergePolicy.OneMerge merge, IndexReader indexReader) {
+        assert merge.segments.isEmpty() == false;
+
+        long memoryNeeded = 0;
+        Map<String, SegmentCommitInfo> segments = merge.segments.stream().collect(Collectors.toMap(s -> s.info.name, s -> s));
+        List<LeafReaderContext> leaves = indexReader.leaves();
+        SegmentReader segmentReader = null;
+        for (LeafReaderContext leafReaderContext : leaves) {
+            segmentReader = Lucene.segmentReader(leafReaderContext.reader());
+            String segmentName = segmentReader.getSegmentName();
+            SegmentCommitInfo segmentCommitInfo = segments.get(segmentName);
+            if (segmentCommitInfo != null) {
+                memoryNeeded += estimateMergeMemory(segmentCommitInfo, segmentReader);
+                segments.remove(segmentName);
+                if (segments.isEmpty()) {
+                    break;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        // Estimate segments without readers - the searcher may not have been refreshed yet, so estimate them with the field info from
+        // the last segment reader
+        if (segmentReader != null) {
+            for (SegmentCommitInfo segmentCommitInfo : segments.values()) {
+                memoryNeeded += estimateMergeMemory(segmentCommitInfo, segmentReader);
+            }
+        }
+
+        return memoryNeeded;
+    }
+
+    private static long estimateMergeMemory(SegmentCommitInfo segmentCommitInfo, SegmentReader reader) {
+        long maxMem = 0;
+        for (FieldInfo fieldInfo : reader.getFieldInfos()) {
+            maxMem = Math.max(maxMem, estimateFieldMemory(fieldInfo, segmentCommitInfo, reader));
+        }
+        return maxMem;
+    }
+
+    private static long estimateFieldMemory(FieldInfo fieldInfo, SegmentCommitInfo segmentCommitInfo, SegmentReader segmentReader) {
+
+        long maxMem = 0;
+        if (fieldInfo.hasVectorValues()) {
+            maxMem = Math.max(maxMem, estimateVectorFieldMemory(fieldInfo, segmentCommitInfo, segmentReader));
+        }
+        // TODO Work on estimations on other field infos when / if needed
+
+        return maxMem;
+    }
+
+    private static long estimateVectorFieldMemory(FieldInfo fieldInfo, SegmentCommitInfo segmentCommitInfo, SegmentReader segmentReader) {
+        KnnVectorsReader vectorsReader = segmentReader.getVectorReader();
+        if (vectorsReader instanceof PerFieldKnnVectorsFormat.FieldsReader perFieldKnnVectorsFormat) {
+            vectorsReader = perFieldKnnVectorsFormat.getFieldReader(fieldInfo.getName());
+        }
+
+        return getVectorFieldEstimation(fieldInfo, segmentCommitInfo, vectorsReader);
+    }
+
+    private static long getVectorFieldEstimation(FieldInfo fieldInfo, SegmentCommitInfo segmentCommitInfo, KnnVectorsReader vectorsReader) {
+        int numDocs = segmentCommitInfo.info.maxDoc() - segmentCommitInfo.getDelCount();
+        if (vectorsReader instanceof Lucene99HnswVectorsReader) {
+            return numDocs * HNSW_PER_DOC_ESTIMATION;
+
+        } else {
+            // Dominated by the heap byte buffer size used to write each vector
+            if (fieldInfo.getVectorEncoding() == VectorEncoding.FLOAT32) {
+                return fieldInfo.getVectorDimension() * VectorEncoding.FLOAT32.byteSize;
+            }
+            // Byte does not use buffering for writing but the IndexOutput directly
+            return 0;
+        }
+    }
+}