20250228 - plot annotation

Author: isaactpetersen

sports-cognitive-psychology.qmd

@@ -157,7 +157,23 @@ ggplot2::ggplot(
     y = "Proportion of 4th Down Plays that\nare Attempts (to Get the First Down)",
     title = "4th Down Attempts (Proportion) by Season",
   ) +
-  theme(axis.title.y = element_text(angle = 0, vjust = 0.5)) # horizontal y-axis title
+  theme(axis.title.y = element_text(angle = 0, vjust = 0.5)) + # horizontal y-axis title
+  annotate(
+    "segment",
+    x = 2015,
+    xend = 2017,
+    y = 0.08,
+    yend = 0.123,
+    color = "blue",
+    linewidth = 1.5,
+    alpha = 0.6,
+    arrow = arrow()) +
+  annotate(
+    "text",
+    x = 2015,
+    y = 0.07,
+    label = "Rapid increases in 4th down\nattempts after the 2017 season",
+    hjust = 0.5) # center
 ```
 
 As depicted in the @fig-goForItPercentageByWinProbChange (which was adapted from a [figure by Ben Baldwin](https://www.nfl4th.com/articles/4th-down-research.html); archived at <https://perma.cc/S5D8-3NCU>), teams went for it on fourth down nearly twice as often in 2021 compared to 2017, when when their win probability was at least 20% (given the current situation at the start of the given play) and they would increase their win probably by going for it.
@@ -173,7 +189,7 @@ text_df <- tibble(
     "NFL coaches<br>in <span style='color:#00BFC4'>**2021**</span>",
     "NFL coaches<br>in <span style='color:#F8766D'>**2017**</span>"),
   x = c(5, 7),
-  y = c(90, 20),
+  y = c(87.5, 22.5),
   angle = c(10, 10),
   color = c("black", "black")
 )