20250301 - icing the kicker

Author: isaactpetersen

references.bib

@@ -111904,6 +111904,32 @@ @Book{Moskowitz2011
   year      = {2011},
 }
 
+
+@Article{Goldschmied2024,
+  author   = {Goldschmied, Nadav and Ratkovich, Tyler and Raphaeli, Mike},
+  journal  = {Journal of Applied Sport Psychology},
+  title    = {Brief report: Exploring the icing the kicker strategy in the NFL},
+  note     = {doi: 10.1080/10413200.2024.2437166},
+  pages    = {1--8},
+  abstract = {Icing is a strategy used in American football during the last moments of game when a coach calls for a time-out to allow an opposing kicker to supposedly ruminate before a decisive field-kick. Using archival data of pressure kicks from twenty-five National Football League seasons (1999?2024), a generalized estimating equation (GEE) model accounting for nested data was applied. It was found that icing was successful in reducing scoring while other factors such as location (home vs. away), physical environment (indoors vs. outdoors) or season type (regular vs. playoffs) were not associated with the kicks? success. In a secondary analysis it was demonstrated with another limited set of nullified kicks that the second attempt in close time proximity did not yield a significant deterioration in performance thus presently failing to lend support to the ?twice taxed? hypothesis (Goldschmied et al., 2010) of why icing works. Theoretical and applied implications are discussed. Attempts at icing or the calling of time-outs by opposing coaches against kickers in the National Football League before crucial kicks were demonstrated to be successful (1999?2024 seasons). Other factors such as home vs. away, indoors vs. outdoors or regular vs. playoffs were not associated with the kicks? success. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICEOpposing coach should preserve and use time-outs to ice the kicker before crucial kicks.Kickers should practice kicking with icing manipulations in training. Opposing coach should preserve and use time-outs to ice the kicker before crucial kicks. Kickers should practice kicking with icing manipulations in training.},
+  doi      = {10.1080/10413200.2024.2437166},
+  url      = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10413200.2024.2437166},
+}
+
+@Article{GonzalezSanchez2024,
+  author   = {Gonzalez Sanchez, Adriana and Martinez, Sierra and Yurko, Ron and Elmore, Ryan and Macdonald, Brian},
+  journal  = {CHANCE},
+  title    = {Beyond the box score: Does icing the field goal kicker work in the NFL?},
+  year     = {2024},
+  note     = {doi: 10.1080/09332480.2024.2415841},
+  number   = {3},
+  pages    = {41--48},
+  volume   = {37},
+  abstract = {In football, the term ?icing the kicker? refers to the moment a coach calls a timeout immediately before a field goal attempt in the hope that it will negatively affect the kicker?s ability to make the field goal. This often occurs during a game deciding play, making it a crucial moment in football games. In this article, we aim to answer the question as to whether icing the kicker impacts a kicker?s ability to make the field goal. We demonstrate the need for a causal inference approach to this problem, due to the non-random nature of the decision to ice kickers. Ultimately, our results indicate a lack of evidence demonstrating any meaningful effect from icing the kicker. Furthermore, we use a simple simulation to show how coaches may prefer to use their timeouts earlier in the game with more impactful results.},
+  doi      = {10.1080/09332480.2024.2415841},
+  url      = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2024.2415841},
+}
+
 @Comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:bibtex;}
 
 @Comment{jabref-meta: saveActions:enabled;

sports-cognitive-psychology.qmd

@@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ Head Coach Doug Peterson heavily relied on analytics with the Philadelphia Eagle
 
 Examples of changes in football due to the use of analytics include more often going for it on fourth down, a greater emphasis on the passing game, drafting Running Backs later in the draft (and, more generally, valuing Running Backs less), and trading down in the draft to obtain more low picks (rather than having fewer high picks) because top picks are frequently overvalued [@Massey2013].
 
-## Coaching and Risk Aversion {#sec-coachingRiskAversion}
+## Coaching and Loss/Risk Aversion {#sec-coachingRiskAversion}
 
 ### Going for It on Fourth Down {#sec-coachingGoingForIt}
 
@@ -336,6 +336,18 @@ Analysis of When to Go for it on Fourth Down Versus What Coaches Actually Do on
 
 ### Icing the Kicker {#sec-icingTheKicker}
 
+In a 2008 game between the Jets and Raiders, Jets Kicker Jay Feely missed a game-tying field goal to send the game to overtime.
+However, moments before the snap, the Raiders called a timeout in an attempt to "ice the kicker."
+The idea behind icing the kicker is making the kicker think about the pressure of upcoming kick so he gets "cold feet" (metaphorically speaking) and misses the kick.
+After the brief timeout, Feely got a second chance and made the field goal to send the game into overtime.
+
+After the game, [Feely noted](https://www.nfl.com/news/janikowski-gives-raiders-win-over-jets-in-overtime-09000d5d80bc3910), "I heard the whistle before I started, which is an advantage to the kicker...If you're going to do that, do that before he kicks. I can kick it down the middle, see what the wind does and adjust. It helps the kicker tremendously." (archived at <https://perma.cc/U7SV-UE2E>).
+
+However, does icing the kicker work?
+There is mixed evidence on icing the kicker.
+Some studies find some evidence for lower percentage of iced kicks made compared to non-iced kicks [@Goldschmied2024], whereas other studies do not [e.g., @GonzalezSanchez2024; @Moskowitz2011].
+This suggests that, if there is such an effect, the [effect size](#sec-practicalSignificance) is likely very small, and it may better suit the team to use your timeouts in other situations.
+
 ## Conclusion {#sec-sportsCognitivePsychologyConclusion}
 
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