|
| 1 | +# Santa Claus Rally: Executive Summary |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +**Analysis Period:** 2000-2024 (25 years) |
| 4 | +**Trading Window:** Last 5 trading days of year + First 2 trading days of next year (7 days) |
| 5 | +**Author:** Martin Liebl (lieblm@gmail.com) |
| 6 | +**Date:** December 16, 2025 |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +--- |
| 9 | + |
| 10 | +## Key Finding: Stronger Than Thanksgiving |
| 11 | + |
| 12 | +The Santa Claus Rally shows **statistically significant evidence** in 2 of 30 DJIA stocks (Disney +2.55%, JPMorgan +1.97%), making it **stronger than the Thanksgiving effect** which showed zero statistically significant stocks after correction. This suggests year-end positioning creates a more reliable seasonal pattern for specific large-cap value stocks. |
| 13 | + |
| 14 | +--- |
| 15 | + |
| 16 | +## Cross-Index Results Summary |
| 17 | + |
| 18 | +| Index | Stocks | Observations | Coverage | Significant Stocks | Top Performer | |
| 19 | +|-------|--------|--------------|----------|-------------------|---------------| |
| 20 | +| **DJIA** | 30 | 718 | 95.7% | **2*** | DIS (+2.55%) | |
| 21 | +| **NASDAQ-100** | 73 | 1,898 | 78.8% | 0 | MU (+3.69%) | |
| 22 | +| **S&P 500** | 229 | 5,475 | 88.9% | 0 | CF (+3.84%) | |
| 23 | + |
| 24 | +*Statistically significant after Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction (α=0.05) |
| 25 | + |
| 26 | +--- |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +## Statistical Significance Winners |
| 29 | + |
| 30 | +### DIS (Walt Disney) ⭐ |
| 31 | +- **Median Return:** +2.55% |
| 32 | +- **Win Rate:** 72% (18 of 25 years) |
| 33 | +- **p-value:** 0.037 (significant after correction) |
| 34 | +- **Sharpe Ratio:** 0.631 |
| 35 | +- **Sector:** Consumer Discretionary |
| 36 | + |
| 37 | +### JPM (JPMorgan Chase) ⭐ |
| 38 | +- **Median Return:** +1.97% |
| 39 | +- **Win Rate:** 72% (18 of 25 years) |
| 40 | +- **p-value:** 0.037 (significant after correction) |
| 41 | +- **Sharpe Ratio:** 0.641 |
| 42 | +- **Sector:** Financials |
| 43 | + |
| 44 | +These are the **only two stocks** across all three indices that pass rigorous statistical testing with multiple testing correction. |
| 45 | + |
| 46 | +--- |
| 47 | + |
| 48 | +## Pattern Strength by Index |
| 49 | + |
| 50 | +**Positive Median Returns:** |
| 51 | +- DJIA: 86.7% (26 of 30 stocks) |
| 52 | +- NASDAQ-100: 72.6% (53 of 73 stocks) |
| 53 | +- S&P 500: 81.7% (187 of 229 stocks) |
| 54 | + |
| 55 | +**Broad-Based Effect:** Over 80% of stocks show positive median returns in DJIA and S&P 500, suggesting widespread year-end optimism, but concentrated statistical significance. |
| 56 | + |
| 57 | +--- |
| 58 | + |
| 59 | +## Top 5 Performers by Index |
| 60 | + |
| 61 | +### DJIA Top 5 |
| 62 | +1. **DIS** +2.55% (72% win, p=0.037***) |
| 63 | +2. **JPM** +1.97% (72% win, p=0.037***) |
| 64 | +3. CSCO +1.69% (64% win) |
| 65 | +4. CAT +1.54% (60% win) |
| 66 | +5. INTC +1.49% (56% win) |
| 67 | + |
| 68 | +### NASDAQ-100 Top 5 |
| 69 | +1. MU +3.69% (64% win) |
| 70 | +2. ON +2.44% (68% win) |
| 71 | +3. LULU +2.39% (61% win) |
| 72 | +4. AMAT +2.05% (68% win) |
| 73 | +5. CHTR +1.72% (73% win) |
| 74 | + |
| 75 | +### S&P 500 Top 5 |
| 76 | +1. CF +3.84% (70% win) |
| 77 | +2. MU +3.69% (64% win) |
| 78 | +3. WMB +3.24% (72% win) |
| 79 | +4. SCHW +3.08% (68% win) |
| 80 | +5. FCX +2.98% (64% win) |
| 81 | + |
| 82 | +--- |
| 83 | + |
| 84 | +## Sector Winners |
| 85 | + |
| 86 | +**1. Financials** 🏦 |
| 87 | +- JPM, SCHW, COF, AXP all in top performers |
| 88 | +- Payment networks and diversified banks dominate |
| 89 | +- Year-end portfolio rebalancing drives demand |
| 90 | + |
| 91 | +**2. Semiconductors** 💻 |
| 92 | +- MU, AMAT, INTC show strong patterns |
| 93 | +- Memory and equipment stocks benefit |
| 94 | +- Tech sector optimism for next year |
| 95 | + |
| 96 | +**3. Consumer Discretionary** 🛒 |
| 97 | +- DIS (statistically significant), LULU, ROST |
| 98 | +- Holiday sentiment and retail strength |
| 99 | +- Entertainment and specialty retail lead |
| 100 | + |
| 101 | +**4. Energy** ⚡ |
| 102 | +- WMB, VLO, FCX, DVN in S&P 500 top 10 |
| 103 | +- Commodity exposure and year-end positioning |
| 104 | + |
| 105 | +--- |
| 106 | + |
| 107 | +## Why DJIA Shows Significance (Others Don't) |
| 108 | + |
| 109 | +1. **Multiple Testing Penalty:** DJIA tests 30 stocks vs. 73 (NASDAQ) or 229 (S&P), making statistical significance easier to achieve |
| 110 | +2. **Sample Composition:** Large-cap value stocks more suitable for year-end positioning |
| 111 | +3. **Sector Mix:** DJIA's financials and consumer discretionary align with Santa Rally thesis |
| 112 | +4. **Lower Volatility:** DIS and JPM show consistent returns with favorable risk profiles |
| 113 | + |
| 114 | +--- |
| 115 | + |
| 116 | +## Investment Strategies |
| 117 | + |
| 118 | +### Conservative (Highest Confidence) |
| 119 | +**Target:** DIS, JPM only |
| 120 | +- Both statistically significant (p<0.05 after correction) |
| 121 | +- Expected return: ~2.0-2.5% over 7 days |
| 122 | +- Win rate: 72% |
| 123 | +- **Best for:** Risk-averse investors seeking evidence-based positions |
| 124 | + |
| 125 | +### Balanced (Moderate Confidence) |
| 126 | +**Target:** Top 10-15 performers with 65%+ win rates |
| 127 | +- Semiconductors: MU, AMAT |
| 128 | +- Financials: SCHW, COF, AXP |
| 129 | +- Consumer: LULU, ROST |
| 130 | +- Expected return: ~1.5-3.0% over 7 days |
| 131 | +- **Best for:** Active traders with sector diversification |
| 132 | + |
| 133 | +### Aggressive (Pattern-Based) |
| 134 | +**Target:** Sector baskets (Tech, Financials, Energy) |
| 135 | +- Diversified exposure across top performers |
| 136 | +- Expected return: ~1.0-2.5% over 7 days |
| 137 | +- Higher volatility, no statistical guarantee |
| 138 | +- **Best for:** Speculation on seasonal pattern |
| 139 | + |
| 140 | +--- |
| 141 | + |
| 142 | +## Comparison: Santa Rally vs. Thanksgiving |
| 143 | + |
| 144 | +| Metric | Santa Rally | Thanksgiving | |
| 145 | +|--------|-------------|--------------| |
| 146 | +| Trading Days | 7 | 4-5 | |
| 147 | +| DJIA Significant Stocks | **2** | 0 | |
| 148 | +| DJIA Top Return | +2.55% (DIS) | +2.00% (AAPL) | |
| 149 | +| DJIA Positive % | 86.7% | 83.3% | |
| 150 | +| Effect Strength | **Stronger** | Moderate | |
| 151 | + |
| 152 | +**Verdict:** Santa Claus Rally provides stronger statistical evidence and may be more reliable for systematic trading strategies. |
| 153 | + |
| 154 | +--- |
| 155 | + |
| 156 | +## Methodology |
| 157 | + |
| 158 | +- **Statistical Test:** Wilcoxon signed-rank test (non-parametric) |
| 159 | +- **Multiple Testing Correction:** Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (α=0.05) |
| 160 | +- **Sample Size:** 25 observations per stock (2000-2024) |
| 161 | +- **Return Calculation:** Simple returns (Close/Open - 1) × 100 |
| 162 | +- **Data Source:** Yahoo Finance with auto-adjustment |
| 163 | +- **Holiday Calendar:** NYSE with 10 federal holidays |
| 164 | + |
| 165 | +--- |
| 166 | + |
| 167 | +## Limitations |
| 168 | + |
| 169 | +1. **Survivorship Bias:** Current index constituents used for historical period |
| 170 | +2. **Sample Size:** 25 years provides limited statistical power |
| 171 | +3. **Multiple Testing:** Severe penalty for broader indices (S&P 500: 229 tests) |
| 172 | +4. **Transaction Costs:** Not modeled; may reduce realized returns |
| 173 | +5. **Market Regime:** 2000-2024 spans multiple cycles (tech bubble, financial crisis, COVID) |
| 174 | + |
| 175 | +--- |
| 176 | + |
| 177 | +## Key Takeaways |
| 178 | + |
| 179 | +✅ **Santa Claus Rally is statistically validated** in 2 DJIA stocks (vs. 0 for Thanksgiving) |
| 180 | +✅ **Broad-based positive pattern** (81.7% of S&P 500 stocks have positive median) |
| 181 | +✅ **Financials and consumer discretionary lead** with statistical significance |
| 182 | +✅ **Semiconductors show strong patterns** across all indices |
| 183 | +✅ **7-day window provides clear entry/exit** for tactical positioning |
| 184 | +⚠️ **Statistical significance is rare** after proper multiple testing correction |
| 185 | +⚠️ **No guarantee of future performance** despite historical patterns |
| 186 | + |
| 187 | +--- |
| 188 | + |
| 189 | +## For More Information |
| 190 | + |
| 191 | +- **Full Analysis:** See `ANALYSIS_SANTA_RALLY_COMPARISON.md` |
| 192 | +- **Repository:** https://github.com/lieblm/thanksgiving-alpha |
| 193 | +- **Methodology:** See README.md for technical details |
| 194 | +- **Citation:** See CITATION.cff for academic use |
| 195 | + |
| 196 | +--- |
| 197 | + |
| 198 | +**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No investment advice is provided. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. |
| 199 | + |
| 200 | +--- |
| 201 | + |
| 202 | +**Contact:** Martin Liebl (lieblm@gmail.com) |
| 203 | +**License:** MIT |
| 204 | +**Version:** 1.0 (December 2025) |
0 commit comments