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Add Santa Claus Rally executive summaries (English and Czech)
- Create EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_SANTA_RALLY.md (comprehensive English summary) - Create EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_SANTA_RALLY_CS.md (Czech translation) - Highlight 2 statistically significant DJIA stocks (DIS, JPM) - Compare Santa Rally vs. Thanksgiving effectiveness - Include investment strategies and sector analysis - Document methodology and limitations
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EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_SANTA_RALLY.md

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# Santa Claus Rally: Executive Summary
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**Analysis Period:** 2000-2024 (25 years)
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**Trading Window:** Last 5 trading days of year + First 2 trading days of next year (7 days)
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**Author:** Martin Liebl (lieblm@gmail.com)
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**Date:** December 16, 2025
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---
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## Key Finding: Stronger Than Thanksgiving
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The Santa Claus Rally shows **statistically significant evidence** in 2 of 30 DJIA stocks (Disney +2.55%, JPMorgan +1.97%), making it **stronger than the Thanksgiving effect** which showed zero statistically significant stocks after correction. This suggests year-end positioning creates a more reliable seasonal pattern for specific large-cap value stocks.
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---
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## Cross-Index Results Summary
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| Index | Stocks | Observations | Coverage | Significant Stocks | Top Performer |
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|-------|--------|--------------|----------|-------------------|---------------|
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| **DJIA** | 30 | 718 | 95.7% | **2*** | DIS (+2.55%) |
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| **NASDAQ-100** | 73 | 1,898 | 78.8% | 0 | MU (+3.69%) |
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| **S&P 500** | 229 | 5,475 | 88.9% | 0 | CF (+3.84%) |
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*Statistically significant after Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction (α=0.05)
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---
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## Statistical Significance Winners
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### DIS (Walt Disney) ⭐
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- **Median Return:** +2.55%
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- **Win Rate:** 72% (18 of 25 years)
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- **p-value:** 0.037 (significant after correction)
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- **Sharpe Ratio:** 0.631
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- **Sector:** Consumer Discretionary
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### JPM (JPMorgan Chase) ⭐
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- **Median Return:** +1.97%
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- **Win Rate:** 72% (18 of 25 years)
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- **p-value:** 0.037 (significant after correction)
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- **Sharpe Ratio:** 0.641
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- **Sector:** Financials
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These are the **only two stocks** across all three indices that pass rigorous statistical testing with multiple testing correction.
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---
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## Pattern Strength by Index
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**Positive Median Returns:**
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- DJIA: 86.7% (26 of 30 stocks)
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- NASDAQ-100: 72.6% (53 of 73 stocks)
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- S&P 500: 81.7% (187 of 229 stocks)
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**Broad-Based Effect:** Over 80% of stocks show positive median returns in DJIA and S&P 500, suggesting widespread year-end optimism, but concentrated statistical significance.
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---
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## Top 5 Performers by Index
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### DJIA Top 5
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1. **DIS** +2.55% (72% win, p=0.037***)
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2. **JPM** +1.97% (72% win, p=0.037***)
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3. CSCO +1.69% (64% win)
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4. CAT +1.54% (60% win)
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5. INTC +1.49% (56% win)
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### NASDAQ-100 Top 5
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1. MU +3.69% (64% win)
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2. ON +2.44% (68% win)
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3. LULU +2.39% (61% win)
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4. AMAT +2.05% (68% win)
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5. CHTR +1.72% (73% win)
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### S&P 500 Top 5
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1. CF +3.84% (70% win)
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2. MU +3.69% (64% win)
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3. WMB +3.24% (72% win)
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4. SCHW +3.08% (68% win)
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5. FCX +2.98% (64% win)
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---
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## Sector Winners
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**1. Financials** 🏦
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- JPM, SCHW, COF, AXP all in top performers
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- Payment networks and diversified banks dominate
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- Year-end portfolio rebalancing drives demand
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**2. Semiconductors** 💻
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- MU, AMAT, INTC show strong patterns
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- Memory and equipment stocks benefit
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- Tech sector optimism for next year
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**3. Consumer Discretionary** 🛒
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- DIS (statistically significant), LULU, ROST
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- Holiday sentiment and retail strength
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- Entertainment and specialty retail lead
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**4. Energy**
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- WMB, VLO, FCX, DVN in S&P 500 top 10
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- Commodity exposure and year-end positioning
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---
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## Why DJIA Shows Significance (Others Don't)
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1. **Multiple Testing Penalty:** DJIA tests 30 stocks vs. 73 (NASDAQ) or 229 (S&P), making statistical significance easier to achieve
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2. **Sample Composition:** Large-cap value stocks more suitable for year-end positioning
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3. **Sector Mix:** DJIA's financials and consumer discretionary align with Santa Rally thesis
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4. **Lower Volatility:** DIS and JPM show consistent returns with favorable risk profiles
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---
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## Investment Strategies
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### Conservative (Highest Confidence)
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**Target:** DIS, JPM only
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- Both statistically significant (p<0.05 after correction)
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- Expected return: ~2.0-2.5% over 7 days
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- Win rate: 72%
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- **Best for:** Risk-averse investors seeking evidence-based positions
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### Balanced (Moderate Confidence)
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**Target:** Top 10-15 performers with 65%+ win rates
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- Semiconductors: MU, AMAT
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- Financials: SCHW, COF, AXP
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- Consumer: LULU, ROST
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- Expected return: ~1.5-3.0% over 7 days
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- **Best for:** Active traders with sector diversification
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### Aggressive (Pattern-Based)
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**Target:** Sector baskets (Tech, Financials, Energy)
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- Diversified exposure across top performers
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- Expected return: ~1.0-2.5% over 7 days
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- Higher volatility, no statistical guarantee
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- **Best for:** Speculation on seasonal pattern
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---
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## Comparison: Santa Rally vs. Thanksgiving
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| Metric | Santa Rally | Thanksgiving |
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|--------|-------------|--------------|
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| Trading Days | 7 | 4-5 |
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| DJIA Significant Stocks | **2** | 0 |
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| DJIA Top Return | +2.55% (DIS) | +2.00% (AAPL) |
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| DJIA Positive % | 86.7% | 83.3% |
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| Effect Strength | **Stronger** | Moderate |
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**Verdict:** Santa Claus Rally provides stronger statistical evidence and may be more reliable for systematic trading strategies.
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---
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## Methodology
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- **Statistical Test:** Wilcoxon signed-rank test (non-parametric)
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- **Multiple Testing Correction:** Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (α=0.05)
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- **Sample Size:** 25 observations per stock (2000-2024)
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- **Return Calculation:** Simple returns (Close/Open - 1) × 100
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- **Data Source:** Yahoo Finance with auto-adjustment
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- **Holiday Calendar:** NYSE with 10 federal holidays
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---
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## Limitations
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1. **Survivorship Bias:** Current index constituents used for historical period
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2. **Sample Size:** 25 years provides limited statistical power
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3. **Multiple Testing:** Severe penalty for broader indices (S&P 500: 229 tests)
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4. **Transaction Costs:** Not modeled; may reduce realized returns
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5. **Market Regime:** 2000-2024 spans multiple cycles (tech bubble, financial crisis, COVID)
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---
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## Key Takeaways
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**Santa Claus Rally is statistically validated** in 2 DJIA stocks (vs. 0 for Thanksgiving)
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**Broad-based positive pattern** (81.7% of S&P 500 stocks have positive median)
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**Financials and consumer discretionary lead** with statistical significance
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**Semiconductors show strong patterns** across all indices
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**7-day window provides clear entry/exit** for tactical positioning
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⚠️ **Statistical significance is rare** after proper multiple testing correction
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⚠️ **No guarantee of future performance** despite historical patterns
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---
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## For More Information
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- **Full Analysis:** See `ANALYSIS_SANTA_RALLY_COMPARISON.md`
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- **Repository:** https://github.com/lieblm/thanksgiving-alpha
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- **Methodology:** See README.md for technical details
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- **Citation:** See CITATION.cff for academic use
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---
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**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No investment advice is provided. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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---
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**Contact:** Martin Liebl (lieblm@gmail.com)
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**License:** MIT
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**Version:** 1.0 (December 2025)

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