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Forever Blowing Blockchains: Determinants and Dynamics of Speculative Bubbles}
%/Nicolas Della Penna, Eaman Jahani, Peter Krafft, Octavio Bunge, Harper Reed, Alex "Sandy" Pentland, Julain McAuley}
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\begin{document}
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\title{Forever Blowing Blockchains: Determinants and Dynamics of Speculative Bubbles}

\maketitle


\begin{abstract}
We study the power of structural features of the social network around cryptocurrencies to understand the severity and magnitude of bubbles. We introduce a novel dataset that combines measures of the social network surrounding the introduction of coins in online cryptocurrency forums and the trading behavior across marketplace. Our networks are constructed based on the intensity of social interactions in the main discussion forum of cryptocurrencies. All the structural features of the network are measured based on the state of the social network before the relevant cryptocurrency is ever traded; therefore avoiding any possible confounding between the prices of the assets and community attention.
We find that timing of coin introduction is crucial for bubbles to form.

\end{abstract}

\section{Introduction}
\input{intro.tex}
\section{Literature}
\input{lit.tex}

\section{Data Description}
\subsection{Prices, Exchanges, and Coin characteristics}
\input{data_nikete.tex}
\input{data_otto.tex}

\subsection{Forum Discussions}
\input{data_eaman1.tex}

\subsection{Forum Interaction Network}
\input{data_eaman2.tex}


\section{Variables}
\subsection{Magnitude and Severity}
\input{variables_nikete.tex}

\subsection{Network Structure}
\input{variables_eaman.tex}

\section{Methods }
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\section{Results}
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\section{Future Work \& Conclusion}
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\input{tables/log_severity_btc.tex}
%\caption{Robust regression results of bubble severity as defined in variables section.
%Regression was performed using Huber weights after Elastic net feature selection. Empty
%cells indicate that the independent variable was not included in the model either
%explicitly or due to feature selection.}

\input{tables/log_magnitude_usd.tex}


%\caption{Robust regression results of bubble magnitude as defined in variables section.
%Regression was performed using Huber weights after Elastic net feature selection. Empty
%cells indicate that the independent variable was not included in the model either
%explicitly or due to feature selection. Note that train sample size is smaller than
%severity due to missing volume data in the first few trading days of several coins.}

%\input{tables/log_severity_with_trivialness_btc.tex}
%\caption{Robust regression results of bubble severity as defined in variables section.
%Regression was performed using Huber weights after Elastic net feature selection. Empty
%cells indicate that the independent variable was not included in the model either
%explicitly or due to feature selection.}
%\input{tables/log_severity_with_trivialness_usd.tex}

%\caption{Robust regression results of bubble magnitude as defined in variables section.
%Regression was performed using Huber weights after Elastic net feature selection. Empty
%cells indicate that the independent variable was not included in the model either
%explicitly or due to feature selection. Note that train sample size is smaller than
%severity due to missing volume data in the first few trading days of several coins.}
%\input{tables/log_magnitude_with_trivialness_usd.tex}
%\input{tables/log_magnitude_with_trivialness_btc.tex}

%\section{Acknowledgments}

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\end{document}