ucerf3-etas-launcher/tutorial/example_output/comcat-ridgecrest-m7.1-example/index.html at master · opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher · GitHub

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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<head>
<style>
table {
	border-collapse: collapse
}
table, th, td {
	border: 1px solid black
}
body {
	max-width:1000px;
	margin: auto;
}
img {
	max-width: 100%;
	max-height: 100%;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<h1 id="comcat-m71-ci38457511-shakemap-surfaces-results">ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), ShakeMap Surfaces Results</h1>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th></th><th>ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), ShakeMap Surfaces</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Num Simulations</td><td>10</td></tr>
<tr><td>Start Time</td><td>2019/07/06 03:19:54 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><td>Start Time Epoch Milliseconds</td><td>1562383194040</td></tr>
<tr><td>Duration</td><td>10 Years</td></tr>
<tr><td>Includes Spontaneous?</td><td>false</td></tr>
<tr><td>Trigger Ruptures</td><td>227 Trigger Ruptures</td></tr>
<tr><td></td><td>First: M3.98 at 2019/07/04 17:02:55 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><td></td><td>Last: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:53 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><td></td><td>Largest: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:53 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><td>Historical Ruptures</td><td><em>(none)</em></td></tr>
<tr><td>Config Generated With</td><td>u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id ci38457511 --num-simulations 10 --days-before 7 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --output-dir user_output/comcat-ridgecrest-m7.1-example --random-seed 123456789</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="table-of-contents">Table Of Contents</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="#probabilities-summary-table">Probabilities Summary Table</a></li>
<li><a href="#magnitude-number-distribution">Magnitude Number Distribution</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="#10-year-magnitude-number-distribution">10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#1-year-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#1-month-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#1-week-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#1-day-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#1-hour-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="#hazard-change-over-time">Hazard Change Over Time</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="#m50-hazard-change-over-time">M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time</a></li>
<li><a href="#m60-hazard-change-over-time">M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="#trigger-rupture-fault-map">Trigger Rupture Fault Map</a></li>
<li><a href="#trigger-rupture-depth-map">Trigger Rupture Depth Map</a></li>
<li><a href="#fault-distances-to-triggers">Fault Distances To Triggers</a></li>
<li><a href="#individual-simulated-catalog-maps">Individual Simulated Catalog Maps</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-data-comparisons">ComCat Data Comparisons</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="#comcat-magnitude-number-distributions">ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-time-dependent-mc">ComCat Time-Dependent Mc</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-cumulative-number-vs-time">ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-cumulative-number-simulation-percentiles">ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-probability-spatial-distribution">ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-mean-expectation-spatial-distribution">ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="#comcat-depth-distribution">ComCat Depth Distribution</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="#section-participation">Section Participation</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="#section-participation-plots">Section Participation Plots</a></li>
<li><a href="#supra-seismogenic-parent-sections-table">Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table</a></li>
<li><a href="#fault-magnitude-probability-distributions">Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="#gridded-nucleation">Gridded Nucleation</a></li>
<li><a href="#json-input-file">JSON Input File</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="probabilities-summary-table">Probabilities Summary Table</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Magnitude</th><th>1 Hour Prob</th><th>1 Day Prob</th><th>1 Week Prob</th><th>1 Month Prob</th><th>1 Year Prob</th><th>10 Year Prob</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="magnitude-number-distribution">Magnitude Number Distribution</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<h3 id="10-year-magnitude-number-distribution">10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Legend</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mean</strong> (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>2.5%,97.5%</strong> (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Median</strong> (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Mode</strong> (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>10 yr Probability</strong> (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence</li>
<li><strong>10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability</strong> (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults</li>
<li><strong>95% Conf</strong> (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability</li>
<li><strong>Primary</strong> (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="plots/10yr_mag_num_cumulative_triggered.png" alt="MFD Plot" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Mag</th><th>Mean</th><th>2.5 %ile</th><th>97.5 %ile</th><th>Median</th><th>Mode</th><th>10 yr Probability</th><th>10 yr Supra-Seis Prob</th><th>Primary Aftershocks Mean</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td>4356.600</td><td>3712.000</td><td>5037.000</td><td>4188.000</td><td>4290.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2398.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.6</strong></td><td>3470.300</td><td>2968.000</td><td>3978.000</td><td>3375.000</td><td>3434.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1909.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.7</strong></td><td>2760.200</td><td>2355.000</td><td>3143.000</td><td>2667.000</td><td>2721.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1526.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.8</strong></td><td>2191.700</td><td>1849.000</td><td>2527.000</td><td>2135.000</td><td>2157.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1215.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.9</strong></td><td>1737.600</td><td>1469.000</td><td>2008.000</td><td>1675.000</td><td>1701.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>966.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td>1385.800</td><td>1146.000</td><td>1600.000</td><td>1350.000</td><td>1363.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>764.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.1</strong></td><td>1096.900</td><td>936.000</td><td>1266.000</td><td>1054.000</td><td>1087.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>609.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.2</strong></td><td>875.600</td><td>738.000</td><td>1008.000</td><td>844.000</td><td>894.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>485.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.3</strong></td><td>696.100</td><td>588.000</td><td>810.000</td><td>664.000</td><td>720.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>382.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.4</strong></td><td>554.500</td><td>481.000</td><td>664.000</td><td>521.000</td><td>481.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>304.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.5</strong></td><td>440.000</td><td>370.000</td><td>537.000</td><td>436.000</td><td>439.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>239.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.6</strong></td><td>344.400</td><td>286.000</td><td>428.000</td><td>351.000</td><td>369.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>188.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.7</strong></td><td>275.200</td><td>228.000</td><td>358.000</td><td>261.000</td><td>280.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>151.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.8</strong></td><td>215.300</td><td>176.000</td><td>278.000</td><td>210.000</td><td>226.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>119.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.9</strong></td><td>168.300</td><td>135.000</td><td>216.000</td><td>170.000</td><td>135.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>93.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>133.000</td><td>104.000</td><td>166.000</td><td>129.000</td><td>136.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>74.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.1</strong></td><td>102.900</td><td>79.000</td><td>133.000</td><td>96.000</td><td>110.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>57.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.2</strong></td><td>81.500</td><td>63.000</td><td>103.000</td><td>80.000</td><td>81.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>45.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.3</strong></td><td>64.500</td><td>53.000</td><td>76.000</td><td>64.000</td><td>66.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>35.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.4</strong></td><td>50.500</td><td>40.000</td><td>63.000</td><td>49.000</td><td>58.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>28.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>39.400</td><td>28.000</td><td>50.000</td><td>39.000</td><td>41.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>21.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.6</strong></td><td>30.500</td><td>19.000</td><td>41.000</td><td>31.000</td><td>33.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>16.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.7</strong></td><td>24.800</td><td>14.000</td><td>34.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>13.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.8</strong></td><td>20.200</td><td>11.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>18.000</td><td>18.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>11.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.9</strong></td><td>16.300</td><td>7.000</td><td>22.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>19.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>9.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>12.900</td><td>3.000</td><td>18.000</td><td>13.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>7.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.1</strong></td><td>9.300</td><td>2.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>5.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.2</strong></td><td>7.700</td><td>2.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>4.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.3</strong></td><td>6.400</td><td>2.000</td><td>15.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>3.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.4</strong></td><td>4.600</td><td>1.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>3.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.6</strong></td><td>2.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.7</strong></td><td>1.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.8</strong></td><td>1.300</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.9</strong></td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.1</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.2</strong></td><td>0.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.100 (10.00%)</td><td>0.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="1-year-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Legend</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mean</strong> (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>2.5%,97.5%</strong> (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Median</strong> (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Mode</strong> (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>1 yr Probability</strong> (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence</li>
<li><strong>1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability</strong> (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults</li>
<li><strong>95% Conf</strong> (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability</li>
<li><strong>Primary</strong> (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="plots/1yr_mag_num_cumulative_triggered.png" alt="MFD Plot" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Mag</th><th>Mean</th><th>2.5 %ile</th><th>97.5 %ile</th><th>Median</th><th>Mode</th><th>1 yr Probability</th><th>1 yr Supra-Seis Prob</th><th>Primary Aftershocks Mean</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td>3535.400</td><td>2960.000</td><td>4151.000</td><td>3427.000</td><td>3565.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2096.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.6</strong></td><td>2816.900</td><td>2360.000</td><td>3284.000</td><td>2771.000</td><td>2851.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1670.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.7</strong></td><td>2241.500</td><td>1882.000</td><td>2590.000</td><td>2189.000</td><td>2259.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1336.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.8</strong></td><td>1781.500</td><td>1520.000</td><td>2089.000</td><td>1755.000</td><td>1798.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1064.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.9</strong></td><td>1409.700</td><td>1212.000</td><td>1651.000</td><td>1374.000</td><td>1212.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>845.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td>1121.100</td><td>950.000</td><td>1315.000</td><td>1110.000</td><td>1115.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>669.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.1</strong></td><td>885.300</td><td>744.000</td><td>1043.000</td><td>861.000</td><td>891.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>532.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.2</strong></td><td>706.600</td><td>595.000</td><td>838.000</td><td>693.000</td><td>730.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>423.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.3</strong></td><td>561.900</td><td>456.000</td><td>674.000</td><td>546.000</td><td>584.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>333.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.4</strong></td><td>446.900</td><td>350.000</td><td>560.000</td><td>427.000</td><td>476.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>265.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.5</strong></td><td>354.400</td><td>262.000</td><td>453.000</td><td>356.000</td><td>384.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>209.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.6</strong></td><td>278.200</td><td>208.000</td><td>356.000</td><td>288.000</td><td>290.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>165.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.7</strong></td><td>220.700</td><td>164.000</td><td>295.000</td><td>229.000</td><td>230.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>131.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.8</strong></td><td>172.300</td><td>123.000</td><td>232.000</td><td>179.000</td><td>184.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>103.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.9</strong></td><td>135.400</td><td>97.000</td><td>183.000</td><td>140.000</td><td>146.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>81.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>107.500</td><td>79.000</td><td>142.000</td><td>112.000</td><td>115.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>64.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.1</strong></td><td>83.800</td><td>61.000</td><td>109.000</td><td>84.000</td><td>61.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>50.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.2</strong></td><td>66.700</td><td>48.000</td><td>88.000</td><td>65.000</td><td>68.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>39.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.3</strong></td><td>52.100</td><td>37.000</td><td>66.000</td><td>52.000</td><td>55.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>30.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.4</strong></td><td>41.300</td><td>29.000</td><td>54.000</td><td>41.000</td><td>42.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>24.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>32.300</td><td>20.000</td><td>42.000</td><td>31.000</td><td>42.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>19.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.6</strong></td><td>24.600</td><td>15.000</td><td>36.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>15.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.7</strong></td><td>20.200</td><td>12.000</td><td>31.000</td><td>21.000</td><td>12.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>12.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.8</strong></td><td>16.600</td><td>10.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>15.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>10.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.9</strong></td><td>12.900</td><td>6.000</td><td>19.000</td><td>13.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>8.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>10.800</td><td>3.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>12.000</td><td>13.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>7.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.1</strong></td><td>8.100</td><td>2.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>5.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.2</strong></td><td>6.700</td><td>2.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>4.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.3</strong></td><td>5.500</td><td>2.000</td><td>14.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>3.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.4</strong></td><td>4.100</td><td>1.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>3.300</td><td>0.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.6</strong></td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.7</strong></td><td>1.300</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.8</strong></td><td>1.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.9</strong></td><td>0.900</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.1</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.2</strong></td><td>0.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.100 (10.00%)</td><td>0.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="1-month-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Legend</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mean</strong> (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>2.5%,97.5%</strong> (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Median</strong> (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Mode</strong> (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>1 mo Probability</strong> (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence</li>
<li><strong>1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability</strong> (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults</li>
<li><strong>95% Conf</strong> (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability</li>
<li><strong>Primary</strong> (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="plots/1mo_mag_num_cumulative_triggered.png" alt="MFD Plot" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Mag</th><th>Mean</th><th>2.5 %ile</th><th>97.5 %ile</th><th>Median</th><th>Mode</th><th>1 mo Probability</th><th>1 mo Supra-Seis Prob</th><th>Primary Aftershocks Mean</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td>2592.000</td><td>2264.000</td><td>3022.000</td><td>2555.000</td><td>2564.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1701.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.6</strong></td><td>2059.000</td><td>1801.000</td><td>2387.000</td><td>2008.000</td><td>2055.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1350.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.7</strong></td><td>1639.900</td><td>1435.000</td><td>1933.000</td><td>1589.000</td><td>1630.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1080.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.8</strong></td><td>1301.200</td><td>1127.000</td><td>1492.000</td><td>1281.000</td><td>1314.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>860.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.9</strong></td><td>1031.600</td><td>893.000</td><td>1180.000</td><td>1023.000</td><td>1029.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>682.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td>822.100</td><td>707.000</td><td>941.000</td><td>813.000</td><td>829.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>539.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.1</strong></td><td>648.200</td><td>563.000</td><td>757.000</td><td>649.000</td><td>656.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>430.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.2</strong></td><td>513.900</td><td>443.000</td><td>588.000</td><td>523.000</td><td>443.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>339.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.3</strong></td><td>409.400</td><td>344.000</td><td>473.000</td><td>414.000</td><td>417.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>269.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.4</strong></td><td>327.000</td><td>265.000</td><td>378.000</td><td>330.000</td><td>344.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>215.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.5</strong></td><td>259.000</td><td>201.000</td><td>298.000</td><td>273.000</td><td>276.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>169.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.6</strong></td><td>202.700</td><td>158.000</td><td>231.000</td><td>209.000</td><td>227.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>133.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.7</strong></td><td>160.000</td><td>127.000</td><td>182.000</td><td>170.000</td><td>171.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>106.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.8</strong></td><td>125.200</td><td>98.000</td><td>146.000</td><td>130.000</td><td>136.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>85.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.9</strong></td><td>98.600</td><td>77.000</td><td>119.000</td><td>100.000</td><td>78.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>66.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>80.100</td><td>61.000</td><td>95.000</td><td>83.000</td><td>84.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>54.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.1</strong></td><td>61.800</td><td>43.000</td><td>76.000</td><td>61.000</td><td>76.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>41.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.2</strong></td><td>49.500</td><td>34.000</td><td>62.000</td><td>47.000</td><td>51.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>32.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.3</strong></td><td>38.100</td><td>28.000</td><td>49.000</td><td>36.000</td><td>45.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>24.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.4</strong></td><td>30.500</td><td>22.000</td><td>44.000</td><td>29.000</td><td>31.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>20.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>23.400</td><td>16.000</td><td>34.000</td><td>23.000</td><td>18.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>15.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.6</strong></td><td>17.400</td><td>12.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>14.000</td><td>12.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>12.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.7</strong></td><td>15.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>23.000</td><td>12.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>10.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.8</strong></td><td>12.200</td><td>7.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>8.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.9</strong></td><td>9.700</td><td>5.000</td><td>15.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>6.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>8.300</td><td>3.000</td><td>13.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>5.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.1</strong></td><td>6.300</td><td>2.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>4.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.2</strong></td><td>5.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>3.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.3</strong></td><td>4.100</td><td>2.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.4</strong></td><td>3.200</td><td>1.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>2.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.6</strong></td><td>1.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.7</strong></td><td>1.100</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.8</strong></td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.9</strong></td><td>0.800</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.1</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.2</strong></td><td>0.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.100 (10.00%)</td><td>0.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="1-week-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Legend</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mean</strong> (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>2.5%,97.5%</strong> (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Median</strong> (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Mode</strong> (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>1 wk Probability</strong> (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence</li>
<li><strong>1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability</strong> (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults</li>
<li><strong>95% Conf</strong> (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability</li>
<li><strong>Primary</strong> (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="plots/1wk_mag_num_cumulative_triggered.png" alt="MFD Plot" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Mag</th><th>Mean</th><th>2.5 %ile</th><th>97.5 %ile</th><th>Median</th><th>Mode</th><th>1 wk Probability</th><th>1 wk Supra-Seis Prob</th><th>Primary Aftershocks Mean</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td>2070.500</td><td>1769.000</td><td>2448.000</td><td>2034.000</td><td>2060.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1437.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.6</strong></td><td>1649.800</td><td>1410.000</td><td>1956.000</td><td>1602.000</td><td>1651.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1143.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.7</strong></td><td>1311.600</td><td>1111.000</td><td>1575.000</td><td>1256.000</td><td>1297.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>913.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.8</strong></td><td>1043.100</td><td>873.000</td><td>1214.000</td><td>1015.000</td><td>1036.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>725.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.9</strong></td><td>825.900</td><td>697.000</td><td>955.000</td><td>804.000</td><td>819.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>574.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td>658.900</td><td>557.000</td><td>764.000</td><td>649.000</td><td>654.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>453.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.1</strong></td><td>521.400</td><td>442.000</td><td>600.000</td><td>508.000</td><td>514.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>363.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.2</strong></td><td>414.900</td><td>347.000</td><td>470.000</td><td>409.000</td><td>413.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>288.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.3</strong></td><td>331.000</td><td>263.000</td><td>389.000</td><td>328.000</td><td>330.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>229.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.4</strong></td><td>265.100</td><td>200.000</td><td>310.000</td><td>264.000</td><td>271.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>183.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.5</strong></td><td>209.500</td><td>153.000</td><td>245.000</td><td>213.000</td><td>220.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>144.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.6</strong></td><td>165.700</td><td>123.000</td><td>198.000</td><td>169.000</td><td>176.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>114.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.7</strong></td><td>129.300</td><td>100.000</td><td>159.000</td><td>134.000</td><td>134.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>90.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.8</strong></td><td>101.500</td><td>80.000</td><td>128.000</td><td>104.000</td><td>84.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>72.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.9</strong></td><td>79.500</td><td>59.000</td><td>105.000</td><td>80.000</td><td>82.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>56.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>65.200</td><td>47.000</td><td>82.000</td><td>65.000</td><td>67.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>46.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.1</strong></td><td>50.200</td><td>32.000</td><td>66.000</td><td>49.000</td><td>52.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>35.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.2</strong></td><td>39.600</td><td>24.000</td><td>53.000</td><td>39.000</td><td>40.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>27.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.3</strong></td><td>30.500</td><td>20.000</td><td>37.000</td><td>30.000</td><td>37.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>20.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.4</strong></td><td>24.300</td><td>16.000</td><td>34.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>17.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>18.800</td><td>12.000</td><td>26.000</td><td>21.000</td><td>21.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>13.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.6</strong></td><td>14.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>20.000</td><td>13.000</td><td>19.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>10.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.7</strong></td><td>12.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>15.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>8.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.8</strong></td><td>9.500</td><td>1.000</td><td>14.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>6.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.9</strong></td><td>7.700</td><td>1.000</td><td>12.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>5.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>6.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>4.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.1</strong></td><td>4.900</td><td>0.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>3.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.2</strong></td><td>3.900</td><td>0.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>3.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.3</strong></td><td>3.300</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.4</strong></td><td>2.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>2.300</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.6</strong></td><td>1.400</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.800 (80.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.7</strong></td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.8</strong></td><td>0.900</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.9</strong></td><td>0.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.1</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.2</strong></td><td>0.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.100 (10.00%)</td><td>0.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="1-day-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Legend</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mean</strong> (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>2.5%,97.5%</strong> (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Median</strong> (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Mode</strong> (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>1 d Probability</strong> (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence</li>
<li><strong>1 d Supraseismogenic Probability</strong> (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults</li>
<li><strong>95% Conf</strong> (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability</li>
<li><strong>Primary</strong> (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="plots/1d_mag_num_cumulative_triggered.png" alt="MFD Plot" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Mag</th><th>Mean</th><th>2.5 %ile</th><th>97.5 %ile</th><th>Median</th><th>Mode</th><th>1 d Probability</th><th>1 d Supra-Seis Prob</th><th>Primary Aftershocks Mean</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td>1402.600</td><td>1233.000</td><td>1653.000</td><td>1408.000</td><td>1411.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1068.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.6</strong></td><td>1116.800</td><td>989.000</td><td>1329.000</td><td>1109.000</td><td>1122.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>848.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.7</strong></td><td>888.100</td><td>784.000</td><td>1062.000</td><td>866.000</td><td>876.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>678.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.8</strong></td><td>708.800</td><td>613.000</td><td>820.000</td><td>694.000</td><td>705.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>540.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.9</strong></td><td>557.300</td><td>483.000</td><td>645.000</td><td>547.000</td><td>550.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>425.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td>445.100</td><td>393.000</td><td>515.000</td><td>436.000</td><td>436.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>336.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.1</strong></td><td>352.300</td><td>302.000</td><td>402.000</td><td>345.000</td><td>353.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>269.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.2</strong></td><td>279.400</td><td>231.000</td><td>316.000</td><td>277.000</td><td>284.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>214.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.3</strong></td><td>222.100</td><td>168.000</td><td>259.000</td><td>219.000</td><td>226.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>169.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.4</strong></td><td>177.100</td><td>130.000</td><td>210.000</td><td>180.000</td><td>188.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>135.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.5</strong></td><td>140.600</td><td>100.000</td><td>156.000</td><td>145.000</td><td>156.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>106.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.6</strong></td><td>111.800</td><td>80.000</td><td>129.000</td><td>115.000</td><td>129.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>85.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.7</strong></td><td>87.700</td><td>65.000</td><td>101.000</td><td>89.000</td><td>93.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>67.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.8</strong></td><td>69.000</td><td>53.000</td><td>82.000</td><td>66.000</td><td>60.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>54.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.9</strong></td><td>53.700</td><td>38.000</td><td>67.000</td><td>50.000</td><td>59.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>42.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>44.500</td><td>30.000</td><td>53.000</td><td>43.000</td><td>52.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>34.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.1</strong></td><td>34.300</td><td>22.000</td><td>46.000</td><td>32.000</td><td>37.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>26.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.2</strong></td><td>27.300</td><td>16.000</td><td>35.000</td><td>26.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>21.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.3</strong></td><td>21.500</td><td>14.000</td><td>28.000</td><td>21.000</td><td>23.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>16.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.4</strong></td><td>17.200</td><td>11.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>17.000</td><td>19.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>13.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>13.500</td><td>9.000</td><td>20.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>10.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.6</strong></td><td>9.800</td><td>4.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>7.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.7</strong></td><td>8.100</td><td>2.000</td><td>13.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>6.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.8</strong></td><td>6.600</td><td>1.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>10.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>5.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.9</strong></td><td>5.300</td><td>1.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>4.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>4.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>8.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>3.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.1</strong></td><td>3.100</td><td>0.000</td><td>6.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.2</strong></td><td>2.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>2.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.3</strong></td><td>2.100</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.4</strong></td><td>1.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>1.400</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>1.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.6</strong></td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.7</strong></td><td>0.900</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.600 (60.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.8</strong></td><td>0.800</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.9</strong></td><td>0.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.1</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.2</strong></td><td>0.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.100 (10.00%)</td><td>0.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="1-hour-magnitude-number-distribution">1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><strong>Legend</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mean</strong> (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>2.5%,97.5%</strong> (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Median</strong> (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>Mode</strong> (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs</li>
<li><strong>1 hr Probability</strong> (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence</li>
<li><strong>1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability</strong> (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults</li>
<li><strong>95% Conf</strong> (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability</li>
<li><strong>Primary</strong> (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="plots/1hr_mag_num_cumulative_triggered.png" alt="MFD Plot" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Mag</th><th>Mean</th><th>2.5 %ile</th><th>97.5 %ile</th><th>Median</th><th>Mode</th><th>1 hr Probability</th><th>1 hr Supra-Seis Prob</th><th>Primary Aftershocks Mean</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td>514.400</td><td>440.000</td><td>635.000</td><td>497.000</td><td>503.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>455.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.6</strong></td><td>409.900</td><td>354.000</td><td>516.000</td><td>398.000</td><td>401.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>360.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.7</strong></td><td>325.300</td><td>288.000</td><td>396.000</td><td>314.000</td><td>315.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>288.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.8</strong></td><td>259.000</td><td>220.000</td><td>315.000</td><td>246.000</td><td>252.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>228.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.9</strong></td><td>206.200</td><td>183.000</td><td>248.000</td><td>194.000</td><td>195.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>182.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td>163.700</td><td>140.000</td><td>198.000</td><td>154.000</td><td>154.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>143.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.1</strong></td><td>130.200</td><td>111.000</td><td>157.000</td><td>124.000</td><td>130.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>115.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.2</strong></td><td>102.200</td><td>81.000</td><td>128.000</td><td>99.000</td><td>100.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>90.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.3</strong></td><td>81.800</td><td>60.000</td><td>104.000</td><td>81.000</td><td>82.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>72.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.4</strong></td><td>65.900</td><td>49.000</td><td>77.000</td><td>67.000</td><td>77.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>57.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.5</strong></td><td>51.400</td><td>36.000</td><td>62.000</td><td>53.000</td><td>54.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>44.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.6</strong></td><td>40.800</td><td>27.000</td><td>50.000</td><td>41.000</td><td>44.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>35.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.7</strong></td><td>32.500</td><td>24.000</td><td>41.000</td><td>32.000</td><td>31.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>28.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.8</strong></td><td>26.300</td><td>21.000</td><td>34.000</td><td>25.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>22.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3.9</strong></td><td>20.000</td><td>15.000</td><td>27.000</td><td>18.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>17.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td>16.600</td><td>11.000</td><td>23.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>16.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>14.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.1</strong></td><td>12.400</td><td>9.000</td><td>19.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>10.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.2</strong></td><td>10.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>15.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>8.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.3</strong></td><td>7.300</td><td>3.000</td><td>12.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>6.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.4</strong></td><td>6.200</td><td>3.000</td><td>11.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>5.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.5</strong></td><td>4.800</td><td>2.000</td><td>9.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>4.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.6</strong></td><td>3.600</td><td>1.000</td><td>7.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000 (100.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>3.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.7</strong></td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>2.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.8</strong></td><td>2.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>2.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4.9</strong></td><td>2.100</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>2.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td>1.900</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.900 (90.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>1.900</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.1</strong></td><td>1.300</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>1.300</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.2</strong></td><td>1.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>1.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.3</strong></td><td>1.100</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.700 (70.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>1.100</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.4</strong></td><td>0.800</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.500 (50.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.800</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.5</strong></td><td>0.700</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.700</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.6</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.7</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.8</strong></td><td>0.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.600</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5.9</strong></td><td>0.500</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.400 (40.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.500</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td>0.400</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.1</strong></td><td>0.400</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.300 (30.00%)</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.400</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.2</strong></td><td>0.200</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.200 (20.00%)</td><td>0.100 (10.00%)</td><td>0.200</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.1</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.2</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.3</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.4</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.5</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.6</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.7</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.8</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8.9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥9</strong></td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000 (0.00%)</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="hazard-change-over-time">Hazard Change Over Time</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p>These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time</p>
<h3 id="m50-hazard-change-over-time">M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><img src="plots/hazard_change_100km_m5.0.png" alt="Hazard Change" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Forecast Duration</th><th>UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]</th><th>UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only</th><th>UCERF3-TD</th><th>UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain</th><th>UCERF3-TI</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>1 Hour</td><td>0.900 [0.541 - 0.995]</td><td>0.900</td><td>7.14E-5</td><td>12608.97</td><td>7.09E-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Day</td><td>0.900 [0.542 - 0.995]</td><td>0.900</td><td>1.71E-3</td><td>525.9</td><td>1.70E-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Week</td><td>0.901 [0.547 - 0.995]</td><td>0.900</td><td>0.012</td><td>75.6</td><td>0.012</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Month</td><td>1.000 [0.673 - 1.000]</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.050</td><td>19.96</td><td>0.050</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Year</td><td>1.000 [0.816 - 1.000]</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.465</td><td>2.15</td><td>0.463</td></tr>
<tr><td>10 Years</td><td>1.000 [0.999 - 1.000]</td><td>1.000</td><td>0.998</td><td>1</td><td>0.998</td></tr>
<tr><td>30 Years</td><td>1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *</td><td>*</td><td>1.000</td><td>1 *</td><td>1.000</td></tr>
<tr><td>100 Years</td><td>1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *</td><td>*</td><td>1.000</td><td>1 *</td><td>1.000</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>* <em>forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included</em></p>
<h3 id="m60-hazard-change-over-time">M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><img src="plots/hazard_change_100km_m6.0.png" alt="Hazard Change" /></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Forecast Duration</th><th>UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]</th><th>UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only</th><th>UCERF3-TD</th><th>UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain</th><th>UCERF3-TI</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>1 Hour</td><td>0.300 [0.081 - 0.646]</td><td>0.300</td><td>7.85E-6</td><td>38194.64</td><td>7.36E-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Day</td><td>0.400 [0.137 - 0.726]</td><td>0.400</td><td>1.88E-4</td><td>2122.68</td><td>1.77E-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Week</td><td>0.401 [0.138 - 0.727]</td><td>0.400</td><td>1.32E-3</td><td>303.92</td><td>1.23E-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Month</td><td>0.403 [0.142 - 0.728]</td><td>0.400</td><td>5.64E-3</td><td>71.53</td><td>5.28E-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>1 Year</td><td>0.440 [0.194 - 0.745]</td><td>0.400</td><td>0.067</td><td>6.61</td><td>0.062</td></tr>
<tr><td>10 Years</td><td>0.699 [0.567 - 0.863]</td><td>0.400</td><td>0.498</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.475</td></tr>
<tr><td>30 Years</td><td>0.925 [0.891 - 0.966] *</td><td>*</td><td>0.874</td><td>1.06 *</td><td>0.855</td></tr>
<tr><td>100 Years</td><td>0.999 [0.999 - 1.000] *</td><td>*</td><td>0.999</td><td>1 *</td><td>0.998</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>* <em>forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included</em></p>
<h2 id="trigger-rupture-fault-map">Trigger Rupture Fault Map</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><img src="plots/trigger_rup_fault_map.png" alt="Map" /></p>
<h2 id="trigger-rupture-depth-map">Trigger Rupture Depth Map</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><img src="plots/trigger_rup_depth_map.png" alt="Map" /></p>
<h2 id="fault-distances-to-triggers">Fault Distances To Triggers</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Section Name</th><th>Strike, Dip, Rake</th><th># Hypos In Poly</th><th>Max Mag w/ Hypo In Poly</th><th># Surfs In Poly</th><th>Max Mag w/ Surf In Poly</th><th>Min Dist To Any (km)</th><th>Min Poly Dist To Any (km)</th><th>Min Dist To Largest (km)</th><th>Min Poly Dist To Largest (km)</th><th>Min Hypo Dist To Largest (km)</th><th>Min Hypo Poly Dist To Largest (km)</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Airport Lake</td><td>359, 50, -90</td><td>90</td><td>7.1</td><td>90</td><td>7.1</td><td>0.036</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.036</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.612</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td>Little Lake</td><td>327, 90, 180</td><td>16</td><td>3.85</td><td>17</td><td>7.1</td><td>2.321</td><td>0.000</td><td>11.284</td><td>0.000</td><td>13.471</td><td>1.469</td></tr>
<tr><td>Garlock (Central)</td><td>71, 90, 0</td><td>2</td><td>3.21</td><td>3</td><td>7.1</td><td>5.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>5.600</td><td>0.000</td><td>22.766</td><td>10.797</td></tr>
<tr><td>So Sierra Nevada</td><td>2, 50, -90</td><td>1</td><td>2.75</td><td>1</td><td>2.75</td><td>1.410</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.248</td><td>4.233</td><td>16.191</td><td>15.188</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tank Canyon</td><td>189, 50, -90</td><td>0</td><td></td><td>0</td><td></td><td>9.015</td><td>9.011</td><td>9.015</td><td>9.011</td><td>17.039</td><td>16.895</td></tr>
<tr><td>Blackwater</td><td>323, 90, 180</td><td>0</td><td></td><td>0</td><td></td><td>14.394</td><td>8.726</td><td>14.394</td><td>8.726</td><td>29.622</td><td>27.613</td></tr>
<tr><td>Scodie Lineament</td><td>221, 68, 0</td><td>0</td><td></td><td>0</td><td></td><td>16.722</td><td>15.781</td><td>28.750</td><td>27.702</td><td>36.559</td><td>32.668</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="individual-simulated-catalog-maps">Individual Simulated Catalog Maps</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p>These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Duration</th><th>p0.0 %-ile</th><th>p25.0 %-ile</th><th>p50.0 %-ile</th><th>p75.0 %-ile</th><th>p100.0 %-ile</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>1 Week</strong></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p0.0_1wk.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p25.0_1wk.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p50.0_1wk.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p75.0_1wk.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p100.0_1wk.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>1 Month</strong></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p0.0_1mo.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p25.0_1mo.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p50.0_1mo.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p75.0_1mo.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p100.0_1mo.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>1 Year</strong></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p0.0_1yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p25.0_1yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p50.0_1yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p75.0_1yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p100.0_1yr.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>10 Year</strong></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p0.0_10yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p25.0_10yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p50.0_10yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p75.0_10yr.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/sim_catalog_map_p100.0_10yr.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="comcat-data-comparisons">ComCat Data Comparisons</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p>These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.</p>
<p>Last updated at 2019/10/16 20:49:54 UTC, 102.7 d after the simulation start time</p>
<h3 id="comcat-magnitude-number-distributions">ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Incremental MND</th><th>Cumulative MND</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mag_num.png" alt="Incremental MND" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mag_num_cumulative.png" alt="Cumi MND" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="comcat-time-dependent-mc">ComCat Time-Dependent Mc</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p>The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as <em>M≥Mc(t)</em> use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.</p>
<p><img src="plots/comcat_compare_td_mc.png" alt="TD MC" /></p>
<h3 id="comcat-cumulative-number-vs-time">ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>M≥Mc(t)</th><th>M≥3</th><th>M≥4</th><th>M≥5</th><th>M≥6</th><th>M≥7</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_td_mc.png" alt="MND" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_m3.png" alt="MND" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_m4.png" alt="MND" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_m5.png" alt="MND" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_m6.png" alt="MND" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_m7.png" alt="MND" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="comcat-cumulative-number-simulation-percentiles">ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p><img src="plots/comcat_compare_cumulative_num_percentile.png" alt="MND" /></p>
<h3 id="comcat-probability-spatial-distribution">ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th></th><th>1 Day</th><th>1 Week</th><th>1 Month</th><th>Current (102.7 Day)</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥Mc(t)</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1d_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1wk_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_1mo_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_prob_current_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="comcat-mean-expectation-spatial-distribution">ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th></th><th>1 Day</th><th>1 Week</th><th>1 Month</th><th>Current (102.7 Day)</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥Mc(t)</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_td_mc.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥3</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_m3.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥4</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_m4.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_m5.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_m6.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_m7.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥8</strong></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1d_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1wk_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_1mo_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_mean_current_m8.png" alt="Map" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="comcat-depth-distribution">ComCat Depth Distribution</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>M≥Mc(t)</th><th>M≥3</th><th>M≥4</th><th>M≥5</th><th>M≥6</th><th>M≥7</th><th>M≥8</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_td_mc.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_m3.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_m4.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_m5.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_m6.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_m7.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td><td><img src="plots/comcat_compare_depth_m8.png" alt="Depth Distribution" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="section-participation">Section Participation</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<h3 id="section-participation-plots">Section Participation Plots</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Min Mag</th><th>1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)</th><th>10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)</th><th>10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>All Supra. Seis.</strong></td><td><img src="plots/fault_participation_partic_1yr_triggered.png" alt="Participation Plot" /></td><td><img src="plots/fault_participation_partic_10yr_triggered.png" alt="Participation Plot" /></td><td><img src="plots/fault_participation_partic_10yr_triggered_primary.png" alt="Participation Plot" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="supra-seismogenic-parent-sections-table">Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Parent Name</th><th>Triggered 10 Year Mean Count</th><th>Triggered 1 Day Prob</th><th>Triggered 1 Week Prob</th><th>Triggered 1 Month Prob</th><th>Triggered 1 Year Prob</th><th>Triggered 10 Year Prob</th><th>Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Garlock (Central)</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>Little Lake</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="fault-magnitude-probability-distributions">Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions</h3>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<p>The first 2 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available <a href="plots/parent_sect_mpds/index.html">here</a></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>1 Week</th><th>1 Month</th><th>1 Year</th><th>10 Year</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Garlock_Central_1wk.png" alt="MPD" /></td><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Garlock_Central_1mo.png" alt="MPD" /></td><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Garlock_Central_1yr.png" alt="MPD" /></td><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Garlock_Central_10yr.png" alt="MPD" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Little_Lake_1wk.png" alt="MPD" /></td><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Little_Lake_1mo.png" alt="MPD" /></td><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Little_Lake_1yr.png" alt="MPD" /></td><td><img src="plots/parent_sect_mpds/Little_Lake_10yr.png" alt="MPD" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="gridded-nucleation">Gridded Nucleation</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>Min Mag</th><th>Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)</th><th>Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td><strong>M≥2.5</strong></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_m2.5.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_primary_m2.5.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥5</strong></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_m5.0.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_primary_m5.0.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥6</strong></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_m6.0.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_primary_m6.0.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td></tr>
<tr><td><strong>M≥7</strong></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_m7.0.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td><td><img src="plots/gridded_nucleation_triggered_primary_m7.0.png" alt="Nucleation Plot" /></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 id="json-input-file">JSON Input File</h2>
<p><em><a href="#table-of-contents">(top)</a></em></p>
<pre><code>{
  &quot;numSimulations&quot;: 10,
  &quot;duration&quot;: 10.0,
  &quot;startTimeMillis&quot;: 1562383194040,
  &quot;includeSpontaneous&quot;: false,
  &quot;randomSeed&quot;: 123456789,
  &quot;binaryOutput&quot;: false,
  &quot;binaryOutputFilters&quot;: [
    {
      &quot;prefix&quot;: &quot;results_complete&quot;,
      &quot;descendantsOnly&quot;: false
    },
    {
      &quot;prefix&quot;: &quot;results_m5_preserve_chain&quot;,
      &quot;minMag&quot;: 5.0,
      &quot;preserveChainBelowMag&quot;: true,
      &quot;descendantsOnly&quot;: false
    }
  ],
  &quot;forceRecalc&quot;: false,
  &quot;simulationName&quot;: &quot;ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), ShakeMap Surfaces&quot;,
  &quot;numRetries&quot;: 3,
  &quot;outputDir&quot;: &quot;/home/kevin/git/ucerf3-etas-launcher/tutorial/user_output/comcat-ridgecrest-m7.1-example&quot;,
  &quot;triggerRuptures&quot;: [
    &quot;omitted due to length, see original input file&quot;
  ],
  &quot;cacheDir&quot;: &quot;/home/kevin/git/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba&quot;,
  &quot;fssFile&quot;: &quot;/home/kevin/git/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip&quot;,
  &quot;probModel&quot;: &quot;FULL_TD&quot;,
  &quot;applySubSeisForSupraNucl&quot;: true,
  &quot;totRateScaleFactor&quot;: 1.14,
  &quot;gridSeisCorr&quot;: true,
  &quot;timeIndependentERF&quot;: false,
  &quot;griddedOnly&quot;: false,
  &quot;imposeGR&quot;: false,
  &quot;includeIndirectTriggering&quot;: true,
  &quot;gridSeisDiscr&quot;: 0.1,
  &quot;catalogCompletenessModel&quot;: &quot;RELAXED&quot;,
  &quot;configCommand&quot;: &quot;u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id ci38457511 --num-simulations 10 --days-before 7 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --output-dir user_output/comcat-ridgecrest-m7.1-example --random-seed 123456789&quot;,
  &quot;configTime&quot;: 1565132191614,
  &quot;comcatMetadata&quot;: {
    &quot;region&quot;: {
      &quot;border&quot;: [
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.15123745324938,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -117.46198765392752
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.170513097218205,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -117.55046477274733
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.201997575622634,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -117.63356287896195
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.24474776584818,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -117.70878534540662
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.29030244291857,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -117.7650027179687
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.28979894832488,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -117.7657059692625
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.599352334844,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -118.10406638799292
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.59991798729306,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -118.1032787187642
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.59991798729306,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -118.10327871876426
        },
        {
          &quot;latitude&quot;: 35.6081394160588,
          &quot;longitude&quot;: -118.11346457171017
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