input_catalog_with_spontaneous

Input Catalog With Spontaneous Results

	Input Catalog With Spontaneous
Num Simulations	10
Start Time	2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds	1325376000000
Duration	10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?	true
Trigger Ruptures	(none)
Historical Ruptures	60366 Trigger Ruptures
	First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
	Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
	Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC

Table Of Contents

• Magnitude Frequency Distribution
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 10 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 10 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 10 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 10 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• 10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	10 yr Probability	10 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.5	2550.820	1789.100	3864.600	2337.600	2491.200	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.6	2019.900	1415.600	3049.300	1853.000	1968.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.7	1600.680	1131.500	2406.700	1465.100	1557.700	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.8	1273.000	892.100	1916.800	1169.400	1235.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.9	1009.420	708.300	1529.900	930.400	972.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3	803.810	557.600	1222.400	736.600	773.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.1	638.690	444.200	962.500	590.700	618.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.2	507.200	354.200	762.500	468.900	492.500	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.3	402.700	280.400	609.900	370.100	389.200	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.4	320.680	219.900	488.200	292.300	309.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.5	254.090	173.400	385.200	231.500	245.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.6	202.900	140.000	307.000	185.600	197.300	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.7	160.760	111.400	249.100	146.900	154.300	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.8	127.420	90.200	198.300	116.000	116.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.9	101.260	72.100	156.600	93.200	98.200	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4	80.570	59.300	127.300	73.800	78.800	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.1	64.240	45.900	104.600	59.000	61.300	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.2	51.300	37.500	84.400	47.400	48.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.3	40.930	29.800	67.800	37.800	38.100	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.4	32.400	23.100	52.900	29.900	30.100	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.5	25.760	18.100	42.300	23.500	23.800	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.6	20.430	14.500	33.500	19.200	19.800	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.7	16.520	11.000	27.200	15.600	15.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.8	13.010	8.000	21.100	12.100	12.100	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.9	10.390	6.600	16.700	9.800	8.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5	8.580	5.200	13.500	8.000	8.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.1	6.640	3.900	10.600	6.300	6.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.2	5.170	2.700	8.600	4.900	5.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.3	4.090	2.300	6.200	3.800	3.800	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.4	3.220	1.900	4.600	3.000	3.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.5	2.580	1.500	3.800	2.400	2.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.6	2.030	0.900	2.900	2.000	2.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.7	1.650	0.900	2.600	1.700	1.700	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.8	1.260	0.600	2.200	1.300	1.300	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.9	0.940	0.300	1.800	1.000	1.100	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6	0.730	0.100	1.500	0.700	0.900	1.000 (100.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.1	0.620	0.000	1.300	0.700	0.700	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.2	0.520	0.000	1.300	0.400	0.400	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.3	0.420	0.000	0.900	0.400	0.400	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.4	0.290	0.000	0.800	0.200	0.200	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.5	0.210	0.000	0.600	0.100	0.100	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.6	0.180	0.000	0.600	0.100	0.100	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.7	0.140	0.000	0.400	0.100	0.100	0.900 (90.00%)	0.800 (80.00%)
M≥6.8	0.120	0.000	0.300	0.100	0.100	0.900 (90.00%)	0.800 (80.00%)
M≥6.9	0.090	0.000	0.200	0.100	0.100	0.800 (80.00%)	0.700 (70.00%)
M≥7	0.090	0.000	0.200	0.100	0.100	0.800 (80.00%)	0.700 (70.00%)
M≥7.1	0.070	0.000	0.200	0.100	0.100	0.600 (60.00%)	0.600 (60.00%)
M≥7.2	0.030	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.300 (30.00%)	0.300 (30.00%)
M≥7.3	0.030	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.300 (30.00%)	0.300 (30.00%)
M≥7.4	0.010	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100 (10.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 37 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
Mendocino	0.05	0.4
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.04	0.4
Ash Hill	0.03	0.1
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.03	0.3
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.02	0.2
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM	0.02	0.2
Cleghorn Pass	0.02	0.1
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM	0.02	0.2
Imperial	0.02	0.2
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.02	0.2

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 21 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.02	0.2
Imperial	0.02	0.2
Mendocino	0.02	0.2
Ash Hill	0.01	0.1
Cady	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calico-Hidalgo	0.01	0.1
Cerro Prieto	0.01	0.1

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 14 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calico-Hidalgo	0.01	0.1
Cerro Prieto	0.01	0.1
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley	0.01	0.1
Imperial	0.01	0.1
Mendocino	0.01	0.1
Mohawk Valley 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 10,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": false,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Input Catalog With Spontaneous",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/tutorial/user_output/input_catalog_with_spontaneous",
  "triggerCatalog": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "cacheDir": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}