| Mojave M7 | |
|---|---|
| Num Simulations | 10 |
| Start Time | 2018/01/01 00:00:00 UTC |
| Start Time Epoch Milliseconds | 1514764800000 |
| Duration | 10 Years |
| Includes Spontaneous? | false |
| Historical Ruptures | (none) |
- Probabilities Summary Table
- Magnitude Number Distribution
- Hazard Change Over Time
- Trigger Rupture Fault Map
- Trigger Rupture Depth Map
- Fault Distances To Triggers
- Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
- Section Participation
- Gridded Nucleation
- JSON Input File
| Magnitude | 1 Hour Prob | 1 Day Prob | 1 Week Prob | 1 Month Prob | 1 Year Prob | 10 Year Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥4 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) |
| M≥4.5 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) |
| M≥5 | 0.500 (50.00%) | 0.900 (90.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) | 1.000 (100.00%) |
| M≥5.5 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.500 (50.00%) | 0.600 (60.00%) | 0.700 (70.00%) | 0.700 (70.00%) | 0.700 (70.00%) |
| M≥6 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.200 (20.00%) |
| M≥7.03 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) |
Legend
- Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs
- Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs
- Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
- 10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
- 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
- Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs
| Mag | Mean | 2.5 %ile | 97.5 %ile | Median | Mode | 10 yr Probability | 10 yr Supra-Seis Prob | Primary Aftershocks Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 | 3102.600 | 2572.000 | 3711.000 | 3049.000 | 3255.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1781.100 |
| M≥2.6 | 2461.900 | 2013.000 | 2935.000 | 2413.000 | 2515.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1409.700 |
| M≥2.7 | 1963.100 | 1593.000 | 2310.000 | 1916.000 | 2034.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1122.600 |
| M≥2.8 | 1547.000 | 1243.000 | 1836.000 | 1514.000 | 1514.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 884.600 |
| M≥2.9 | 1225.400 | 991.000 | 1440.000 | 1227.000 | 1259.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 701.100 |
| M≥3 | 971.300 | 791.000 | 1130.000 | 979.000 | 984.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 553.000 |
| M≥3.1 | 766.500 | 621.000 | 900.000 | 761.000 | 783.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 438.800 |
| M≥3.2 | 610.900 | 484.000 | 734.000 | 621.000 | 622.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 348.600 |
| M≥3.3 | 487.900 | 379.000 | 596.000 | 491.000 | 491.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 276.900 |
| M≥3.4 | 388.700 | 294.000 | 488.000 | 393.000 | 396.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 220.600 |
| M≥3.5 | 308.400 | 235.000 | 381.000 | 306.000 | 317.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 176.500 |
| M≥3.6 | 247.100 | 191.000 | 304.000 | 248.000 | 250.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 142.900 |
| M≥3.7 | 196.900 | 144.000 | 243.000 | 194.000 | 197.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 113.400 |
| M≥3.8 | 155.200 | 107.000 | 205.000 | 154.000 | 157.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 88.200 |
| M≥3.9 | 121.500 | 92.000 | 161.000 | 119.000 | 122.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 70.100 |
| M≥4 | 96.400 | 69.000 | 127.000 | 97.000 | 97.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 55.100 |
| M≥4.1 | 75.800 | 54.000 | 95.000 | 76.000 | 77.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 43.800 |
| M≥4.2 | 59.300 | 41.000 | 78.000 | 60.000 | 60.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 34.900 |
| M≥4.3 | 47.300 | 30.000 | 67.000 | 46.000 | 48.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 28.200 |
| M≥4.4 | 38.500 | 22.000 | 51.000 | 38.000 | 49.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 23.300 |
| M≥4.5 | 31.000 | 19.000 | 42.000 | 31.000 | 33.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 19.000 |
| M≥4.6 | 24.600 | 15.000 | 36.000 | 25.000 | 29.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 15.100 |
| M≥4.7 | 20.000 | 12.000 | 30.000 | 19.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 12.200 |
| M≥4.8 | 16.200 | 5.000 | 23.000 | 17.000 | 23.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 9.900 |
| M≥4.9 | 11.600 | 2.000 | 20.000 | 13.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 7.200 |
| M≥5 | 8.600 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 5.000 |
| M≥5.1 | 6.600 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 4.000 |
| M≥5.2 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 3.000 |
| M≥5.3 | 3.300 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1.900 |
| M≥5.4 | 2.500 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.900 (90.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1.400 |
| M≥5.5 | 1.900 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.700 (70.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1.000 |
| M≥5.6 | 1.400 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.600 (60.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.800 |
| M≥5.7 | 0.600 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.300 |
| M≥5.8 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.300 (30.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥5.9 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6.1 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6.2 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6.3 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.4 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
Legend
- Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs
- Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs
- Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
- 1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
- 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
- Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs
| Mag | Mean | 2.5 %ile | 97.5 %ile | Median | Mode | 1 yr Probability | 1 yr Supra-Seis Prob | Primary Aftershocks Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 | 2551.100 | 2128.000 | 3011.000 | 2593.000 | 2614.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1575.700 |
| M≥2.6 | 2028.200 | 1660.000 | 2396.000 | 2075.000 | 2079.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1249.800 |
| M≥2.7 | 1617.900 | 1334.000 | 1899.000 | 1653.000 | 1679.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 994.800 |
| M≥2.8 | 1276.500 | 1039.000 | 1499.000 | 1310.000 | 1315.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 785.400 |
| M≥2.9 | 1015.500 | 810.000 | 1188.000 | 1042.000 | 1051.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 624.900 |
| M≥3 | 804.600 | 633.000 | 927.000 | 813.000 | 842.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 492.300 |
| M≥3.1 | 633.500 | 506.000 | 740.000 | 628.000 | 659.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 390.300 |
| M≥3.2 | 503.600 | 388.000 | 603.000 | 511.000 | 521.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 308.300 |
| M≥3.3 | 403.400 | 306.000 | 493.000 | 402.000 | 410.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 246.300 |
| M≥3.4 | 324.300 | 237.000 | 405.000 | 331.000 | 333.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 198.600 |
| M≥3.5 | 255.900 | 183.000 | 319.000 | 254.000 | 265.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 157.600 |
| M≥3.6 | 204.700 | 151.000 | 251.000 | 205.000 | 206.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 127.700 |
| M≥3.7 | 163.900 | 120.000 | 201.000 | 161.000 | 162.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 101.300 |
| M≥3.8 | 128.500 | 88.000 | 169.000 | 131.000 | 132.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 78.600 |
| M≥3.9 | 100.500 | 77.000 | 134.000 | 93.000 | 100.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 62.300 |
| M≥4 | 78.700 | 59.000 | 103.000 | 77.000 | 79.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 48.000 |
| M≥4.1 | 62.400 | 48.000 | 79.000 | 61.000 | 79.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 38.000 |
| M≥4.2 | 48.800 | 37.000 | 67.000 | 47.000 | 37.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 30.600 |
| M≥4.3 | 39.000 | 26.000 | 57.000 | 38.000 | 39.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 24.900 |
| M≥4.4 | 32.200 | 19.000 | 42.000 | 31.000 | 40.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 21.000 |
| M≥4.5 | 26.000 | 16.000 | 36.000 | 27.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 17.200 |
| M≥4.6 | 20.600 | 12.000 | 31.000 | 18.000 | 22.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 13.600 |
| M≥4.7 | 17.000 | 10.000 | 26.000 | 16.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 11.100 |
| M≥4.8 | 13.400 | 5.000 | 19.000 | 14.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 8.800 |
| M≥4.9 | 9.700 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 11.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 6.400 |
| M≥5 | 7.500 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 4.500 |
| M≥5.1 | 5.600 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 3.600 |
| M≥5.2 | 4.200 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 2.700 |
| M≥5.3 | 2.700 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1.700 |
| M≥5.4 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.800 (80.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 1.200 |
| M≥5.5 | 1.600 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.700 (70.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.900 |
| M≥5.6 | 1.200 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.600 (60.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.800 |
| M≥5.7 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.300 |
| M≥5.8 | 0.400 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.300 (30.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥5.9 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6.1 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6.2 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥6.3 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.4 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
Legend
- Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs
- Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs
- Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
- 1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
- 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
- Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs
| Mag | Mean | 2.5 %ile | 97.5 %ile | Median | Mode | 1 mo Probability | 1 mo Supra-Seis Prob | Primary Aftershocks Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 | 1891.800 | 1672.000 | 2118.000 | 1885.000 | 1933.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1313.500 |
| M≥2.6 | 1508.900 | 1316.000 | 1684.000 | 1508.000 | 1540.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1045.100 |
| M≥2.7 | 1204.900 | 1059.000 | 1341.000 | 1213.000 | 1243.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 833.800 |
| M≥2.8 | 951.900 | 823.000 | 1049.000 | 970.000 | 980.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 660.500 |
| M≥2.9 | 760.500 | 645.000 | 859.000 | 765.000 | 783.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 526.000 |
| M≥3 | 603.800 | 496.000 | 689.000 | 609.000 | 616.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 415.700 |
| M≥3.1 | 475.100 | 391.000 | 522.000 | 483.000 | 483.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 328.800 |
| M≥3.2 | 376.200 | 292.000 | 419.000 | 383.000 | 384.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 259.800 |
| M≥3.3 | 303.400 | 233.000 | 346.000 | 310.000 | 312.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 208.500 |
| M≥3.4 | 245.300 | 178.000 | 288.000 | 252.000 | 253.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 169.300 |
| M≥3.5 | 192.100 | 136.000 | 225.000 | 197.000 | 197.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 134.400 |
| M≥3.6 | 153.000 | 115.000 | 182.000 | 155.000 | 157.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 108.500 |
| M≥3.7 | 122.000 | 93.000 | 144.000 | 124.000 | 126.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 86.100 |
| M≥3.8 | 94.700 | 66.000 | 104.000 | 101.000 | 103.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 67.100 |
| M≥3.9 | 74.700 | 58.000 | 88.000 | 78.000 | 78.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 53.200 |
| M≥4 | 57.800 | 45.000 | 72.000 | 59.000 | 63.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 40.700 |
| M≥4.1 | 45.300 | 34.000 | 56.000 | 47.000 | 36.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 31.800 |
| M≥4.2 | 35.400 | 26.000 | 51.000 | 32.000 | 41.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 25.600 |
| M≥4.3 | 28.800 | 19.000 | 42.000 | 26.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 20.800 |
| M≥4.4 | 23.600 | 15.000 | 32.000 | 22.000 | 29.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 17.400 |
| M≥4.5 | 18.700 | 13.000 | 25.000 | 19.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 14.200 |
| M≥4.6 | 14.500 | 9.000 | 22.000 | 14.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 11.000 |
| M≥4.7 | 11.500 | 7.000 | 17.000 | 11.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 8.700 |
| M≥4.8 | 9.300 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 6.800 |
| M≥4.9 | 6.700 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 4.800 |
| M≥5 | 5.300 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 3.400 |
| M≥5.1 | 4.400 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 2.900 |
| M≥5.2 | 3.300 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 2.100 |
| M≥5.3 | 2.100 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.200 |
| M≥5.4 | 1.600 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.800 (80.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.900 |
| M≥5.5 | 1.300 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.700 (70.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.700 |
| M≥5.6 | 0.900 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.500 (50.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.600 |
| M≥5.7 | 0.400 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.300 (30.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.200 |
| M≥5.8 | 0.300 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥5.9 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.1 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.2 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥6.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
Legend
- Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs
- Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs
- Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
- 1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
- 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
- Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs
| Mag | Mean | 2.5 %ile | 97.5 %ile | Median | Mode | 1 wk Probability | 1 wk Supra-Seis Prob | Primary Aftershocks Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 | 1532.200 | 1383.000 | 1688.000 | 1529.000 | 1591.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1137.300 |
| M≥2.6 | 1220.400 | 1099.000 | 1348.000 | 1230.000 | 1099.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 904.400 |
| M≥2.7 | 973.600 | 863.000 | 1073.000 | 984.000 | 985.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 720.700 |
| M≥2.8 | 767.900 | 667.000 | 848.000 | 786.000 | 790.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 568.300 |
| M≥2.9 | 612.600 | 533.000 | 699.000 | 619.000 | 620.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 451.900 |
| M≥3 | 485.100 | 409.000 | 561.000 | 497.000 | 498.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 356.300 |
| M≥3.1 | 382.600 | 324.000 | 427.000 | 387.000 | 391.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 283.300 |
| M≥3.2 | 302.400 | 248.000 | 338.000 | 310.000 | 320.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 224.100 |
| M≥3.3 | 243.300 | 196.000 | 283.000 | 252.000 | 253.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 179.300 |
| M≥3.4 | 197.100 | 150.000 | 237.000 | 198.000 | 210.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 146.100 |
| M≥3.5 | 155.000 | 117.000 | 189.000 | 153.000 | 160.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 116.500 |
| M≥3.6 | 124.700 | 98.000 | 155.000 | 125.000 | 126.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 93.900 |
| M≥3.7 | 99.900 | 80.000 | 120.000 | 95.000 | 95.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 74.900 |
| M≥3.8 | 77.800 | 54.000 | 93.000 | 77.000 | 78.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 58.500 |
| M≥3.9 | 61.200 | 46.000 | 72.000 | 60.000 | 61.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 45.900 |
| M≥4 | 47.300 | 36.000 | 57.000 | 46.000 | 53.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 34.700 |
| M≥4.1 | 37.400 | 29.000 | 46.000 | 37.000 | 39.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 27.400 |
| M≥4.2 | 29.400 | 22.000 | 39.000 | 28.000 | 29.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 22.000 |
| M≥4.3 | 23.800 | 16.000 | 31.000 | 22.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 17.800 |
| M≥4.4 | 19.800 | 15.000 | 27.000 | 18.000 | 15.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 14.900 |
| M≥4.5 | 15.600 | 12.000 | 21.000 | 15.000 | 15.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 12.100 |
| M≥4.6 | 11.900 | 8.000 | 18.000 | 11.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 9.100 |
| M≥4.7 | 9.700 | 7.000 | 15.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 7.500 |
| M≥4.8 | 7.700 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 5.800 |
| M≥4.9 | 5.500 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 4.100 |
| M≥5 | 4.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 2.700 |
| M≥5.1 | 3.400 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 2.300 |
| M≥5.2 | 2.700 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.900 |
| M≥5.3 | 1.800 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.900 (90.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.000 |
| M≥5.4 | 1.300 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.700 (70.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.700 |
| M≥5.5 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.600 (60.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.500 |
| M≥5.6 | 0.600 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.400 |
| M≥5.7 | 0.300 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.200 (20.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥5.8 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥5.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
Legend
- Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs
- Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs
- Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
- 1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
- 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
- Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs
| Mag | Mean | 2.5 %ile | 97.5 %ile | Median | Mode | 1 d Probability | 1 d Supra-Seis Prob | Primary Aftershocks Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 | 1088.700 | 961.000 | 1238.000 | 1073.000 | 1121.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 883.400 |
| M≥2.6 | 865.300 | 764.000 | 981.000 | 846.000 | 887.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 702.200 |
| M≥2.7 | 688.400 | 588.000 | 768.000 | 679.000 | 715.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 558.600 |
| M≥2.8 | 543.300 | 447.000 | 606.000 | 535.000 | 566.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 440.600 |
| M≥2.9 | 432.700 | 358.000 | 493.000 | 442.000 | 451.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 350.500 |
| M≥3 | 340.600 | 285.000 | 390.000 | 346.000 | 347.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 275.200 |
| M≥3.1 | 268.300 | 225.000 | 306.000 | 263.000 | 267.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 217.700 |
| M≥3.2 | 211.300 | 177.000 | 239.000 | 209.000 | 209.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 172.000 |
| M≥3.3 | 169.900 | 136.000 | 197.000 | 173.000 | 161.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 137.000 |
| M≥3.4 | 138.200 | 105.000 | 162.000 | 144.000 | 146.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 111.500 |
| M≥3.5 | 108.600 | 84.000 | 132.000 | 110.000 | 111.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 89.000 |
| M≥3.6 | 86.800 | 68.000 | 109.000 | 87.000 | 87.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 71.400 |
| M≥3.7 | 69.300 | 54.000 | 86.000 | 68.000 | 68.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 57.200 |
| M≥3.8 | 54.100 | 37.000 | 72.000 | 55.000 | 55.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 44.600 |
| M≥3.9 | 43.700 | 34.000 | 57.000 | 43.000 | 47.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 35.600 |
| M≥4 | 34.300 | 27.000 | 45.000 | 33.000 | 33.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 27.600 |
| M≥4.1 | 27.100 | 19.000 | 34.000 | 26.000 | 34.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 21.800 |
| M≥4.2 | 21.400 | 12.000 | 28.000 | 21.000 | 21.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 17.700 |
| M≥4.3 | 17.300 | 7.000 | 24.000 | 16.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 14.300 |
| M≥4.4 | 14.400 | 7.000 | 22.000 | 13.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 12.000 |
| M≥4.5 | 11.100 | 6.000 | 20.000 | 10.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 9.500 |
| M≥4.6 | 8.600 | 4.000 | 17.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 7.300 |
| M≥4.7 | 6.800 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 5.800 |
| M≥4.8 | 5.700 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 4.700 |
| M≥4.9 | 3.900 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 3.200 |
| M≥5 | 2.900 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.900 (90.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 2.200 |
| M≥5.1 | 2.500 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.900 (90.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.900 |
| M≥5.2 | 1.900 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.800 (80.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.500 |
| M≥5.3 | 1.400 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.800 (80.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.000 |
| M≥5.4 | 0.900 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.600 (60.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.700 |
| M≥5.5 | 0.700 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.500 (50.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.500 |
| M≥5.6 | 0.400 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.300 (30.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.400 |
| M≥5.7 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥5.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥5.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
Legend
- Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 10 catalogs
- Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 10 catalogs
- Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 10 catalogs
- 1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
- 1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
- 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
- Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 10 catalogs
| Mag | Mean | 2.5 %ile | 97.5 %ile | Median | Mode | 1 hr Probability | 1 hr Supra-Seis Prob | Primary Aftershocks Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 | 418.800 | 353.000 | 483.000 | 412.000 | 413.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 391.400 |
| M≥2.6 | 336.300 | 289.000 | 388.000 | 329.000 | 330.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 313.600 |
| M≥2.7 | 269.600 | 230.000 | 308.000 | 266.000 | 267.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 251.100 |
| M≥2.8 | 214.500 | 183.000 | 243.000 | 209.000 | 218.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 200.100 |
| M≥2.9 | 167.900 | 147.000 | 194.000 | 167.000 | 167.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 157.100 |
| M≥3 | 132.300 | 110.000 | 159.000 | 128.000 | 128.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 123.800 |
| M≥3.1 | 106.100 | 85.000 | 129.000 | 103.000 | 122.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 99.300 |
| M≥3.2 | 83.900 | 64.000 | 107.000 | 83.000 | 68.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 78.600 |
| M≥3.3 | 68.000 | 54.000 | 89.000 | 63.000 | 79.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 63.600 |
| M≥3.4 | 54.800 | 43.000 | 70.000 | 50.000 | 56.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 51.400 |
| M≥3.5 | 44.200 | 30.000 | 56.000 | 42.000 | 56.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 41.900 |
| M≥3.6 | 36.600 | 27.000 | 47.000 | 35.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 34.800 |
| M≥3.7 | 29.400 | 19.000 | 40.000 | 27.000 | 36.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 28.100 |
| M≥3.8 | 22.400 | 14.000 | 30.000 | 20.000 | 20.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 21.500 |
| M≥3.9 | 17.300 | 11.000 | 23.000 | 17.000 | 23.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 16.500 |
| M≥4 | 12.700 | 9.000 | 17.000 | 12.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 11.900 |
| M≥4.1 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 9.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 9.200 |
| M≥4.2 | 7.900 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 8.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 7.300 |
| M≥4.3 | 5.800 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 5.200 |
| M≥4.4 | 5.100 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 4.600 |
| M≥4.5 | 4.300 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 4.000 |
| M≥4.6 | 3.200 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 (100.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 3.000 |
| M≥4.7 | 2.500 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.900 (90.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 2.400 |
| M≥4.8 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.800 (80.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.900 |
| M≥4.9 | 1.600 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.600 (60.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 1.500 |
| M≥5 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.500 (50.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.900 |
| M≥5.1 | 0.900 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.500 (50.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.800 |
| M≥5.2 | 0.700 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.700 |
| M≥5.3 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.500 |
| M≥5.4 | 0.400 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.400 |
| M≥5.5 | 0.400 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.400 (40.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.400 |
| M≥5.6 | 0.300 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.300 (30.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.300 |
| M≥5.7 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 (10.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.100 |
| M≥5.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥5.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥6.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥7.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.7 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥8.9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
| M≥9 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 (0.00%) | 0.000 |
These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time
| Forecast Duration | UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf] | UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only | UCERF3-TD | UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain | UCERF3-TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hour | 0.500 [0.202 - 0.799] | 0.500 | 1.40E-4 | 3572.56 | 1.39E-4 |
| 1 Day | 0.900 [0.543 - 0.995] | 0.900 | 3.35E-3 | 268.44 | 3.32E-3 |
| 1 Week | 1.000 [0.663 - 1.000] | 1.000 | 0.023 | 43.02 | 0.023 |
| 1 Month | 1.000 [0.688 - 1.000] | 1.000 | 0.096 | 10.43 | 0.095 |
| 1 Year | 1.000 [0.899 - 1.000] | 1.000 | 0.707 | 1.41 | 0.703 |
| 10 Years | 1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 30 Years | 1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] * | * | 1.000 | 1 * | 1.000 |
| 100 Years | 1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] * | * | 1.000 | 1 * | 1.000 |
* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included
| Forecast Duration | UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf] | UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only | UCERF3-TD | UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain | UCERF3-TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hour | 1.54E-5 [1.54E-5 - 0.345] | 0.000 | 1.54E-5 | 1 | 1.40E-5 |
| 1 Day | 3.69E-4 [3.69E-4 - 0.345] | 0.000 | 3.69E-4 | 1 | 3.36E-4 |
| 1 Week | 2.58E-3 [2.58E-3 - 0.346] | 0.000 | 2.58E-3 | 1 | 2.35E-3 |
| 1 Month | 0.011 [0.011 - 0.352] | 0.000 | 0.011 | 1 | 0.010 |
| 1 Year | 0.214 [0.131 - 0.527] | 0.100 | 0.126 | 1.69 | 0.115 |
| 10 Years | 0.767 [0.742 - 0.860] | 0.100 | 0.741 | 1.03 | 0.707 |
| 30 Years | 0.984 [0.983 - 0.991] * | * | 0.983 | 1 * | 0.975 |
| 100 Years | 1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] * | * | 1.000 | 1 * | 1.000 |
* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included
| Section Name | Strike, Dip, Rake | Hypocenter In Polygon? | Surface In Polygon? | Minimum Surface Distance (km) | Minimum Surface Poly Distance (km) | Minimum Hypo Distance (km) | Minimum Hypo Poly Distance (km) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Andreas (San Bernardino N) | 122, 90, 180 | false | true | 0.000 | 0.000 | N/A | N/A |
| San Andreas (Mojave S) | 116, 90, 180 | false | true | 0.000 | 0.000 | N/A | N/A |
| Cucamonga | 257, 45, 90 | false | true | 0.313 | 0.000 | N/A | N/A |
| Cleghorn | 96, 90, 0 | false | true | 2.598 | 0.000 | N/A | N/A |
| San Jacinto (San Bernardino) | 138, 90, 180 | false | true | 2.987 | 0.000 | N/A | N/A |
| San Jacinto (Lytle Creek connector) | 135, 90, 180 | false | true | 4.621 | 0.000 | N/A | N/A |
| San Gabriel (Extension) | 276, 61, 180 | false | false | 1.751 | 1.197 | N/A | N/A |
| Fontana (Seismicity) | 223, 80, 0 | false | false | 8.948 | 8.024 | N/A | N/A |
| North Frontal (West) | 77, 49, 90 | false | false | 12.386 | 7.173 | N/A | N/A |
| San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek) | 108, 76, 180 | false | false | 12.617 | 12.385 | N/A | N/A |
| Clamshell-Sawpit | 244, 50, 90 | false | false | 12.917 | 12.886 | N/A | N/A |
| Sierra Madre | 288, 53, 90 | false | false | 16.583 | 16.547 | N/A | N/A |
| San Andreas (San Bernardino S) | 114, 90, 180 | false | false | 17.658 | 17.447 | N/A | N/A |
These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.
| Duration | p0.0 %-ile | p25.0 %-ile | p50.0 %-ile | p75.0 %-ile | p100.0 %-ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 1 Month |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 1 Year |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 10 Year |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Min Mag | 1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous) | 10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous) | 10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Supra. Seis. |  |
 |
 |
| Parent Name | Triggered 10 Year Mean Count | Triggered 1 Day Prob | Triggered 1 Week Prob | Triggered 1 Month Prob | Triggered 1 Year Prob | Triggered 10 Year Prob | Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fontana (Seismicity) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
The first 1 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Min Mag | Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous) | Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only) |
|---|---|---|
| M≥2.5 |  |
 |
| M≥5 |  |
 |
| M≥6 |  |
 |
| M≥7 |  |
 |
{
"numSimulations": 10,
"duration": 10.0,
"startYear": 2018,
"includeSpontaneous": false,
"randomSeed": 123456789,
"binaryOutput": false,
"binaryOutputFilters": [
{
"prefix": "results_complete",
"descendantsOnly": false
},
{
"prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
"minMag": 5.0,
"preserveChainBelowMag": true,
"descendantsOnly": false
}
],
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{
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}
],
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"catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}