spontaneous_only

Spontaneous Only Results

	Spontaneous Only
Num Simulations	10
Start Time	2018/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds	1514764800000
Duration	10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?	true
Trigger Ruptures	(none)
Historical Ruptures	(none)

Table Of Contents

• Magnitude Frequency Distribution
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 10 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 10 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 10 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 10 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• 10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	10 yr Probability	10 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.5	2180.360	1434.900	3652.400	2048.000	2173.700	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.6	1732.950	1140.200	2897.700	1625.800	1729.100	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.7	1376.680	906.900	2305.100	1285.300	1375.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.8	1093.910	724.800	1823.500	1024.900	1098.300	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.9	870.320	572.100	1459.200	817.300	868.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3	690.730	449.400	1163.300	646.600	690.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.1	548.590	360.600	922.700	508.600	545.200	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.2	435.630	288.600	728.000	399.600	435.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.3	345.910	227.400	578.000	315.000	347.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.4	274.810	181.800	460.900	246.600	275.200	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.5	218.340	142.700	365.500	199.000	219.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.6	173.000	112.500	287.400	160.800	170.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.7	137.530	89.100	225.200	128.900	135.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.8	109.840	70.300	180.100	104.300	109.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.9	87.350	55.900	142.000	82.300	88.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4	69.630	44.600	115.600	65.800	70.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.1	55.220	37.000	91.300	52.800	53.700	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.2	43.810	28.500	71.300	42.500	47.500	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.3	34.500	21.800	57.000	33.100	34.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.4	27.140	16.800	44.800	25.300	27.800	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.5	21.230	12.500	35.700	19.600	19.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.6	16.720	8.600	28.300	16.400	17.700	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.7	13.470	7.000	23.100	13.200	13.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.8	10.830	5.300	18.500	10.700	11.800	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.9	8.550	4.400	14.200	8.400	9.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5	6.710	3.100	11.800	6.300	6.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.1	5.400	2.800	9.900	5.200	5.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.2	4.370	2.800	7.900	4.100	4.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.3	3.490	2.200	6.100	3.400	3.400	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.4	2.760	1.700	4.700	2.700	2.900	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.5	2.140	1.100	4.100	2.000	2.100	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.6	1.760	1.000	3.300	1.600	1.600	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.7	1.410	0.800	2.700	1.300	1.300	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.8	1.100	0.400	2.100	1.000	1.000	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.9	0.870	0.100	1.500	0.900	0.900	1.000 (100.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6	0.700	0.100	1.300	0.700	0.800	1.000 (100.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.1	0.550	0.100	0.800	0.600	0.700	1.000 (100.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.2	0.460	0.100	0.700	0.500	0.600	1.000 (100.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.3	0.410	0.000	0.700	0.400	0.400	0.900 (90.00%)	0.900 (90.00%)
M≥6.4	0.320	0.000	0.600	0.300	0.300	0.900 (90.00%)	0.800 (80.00%)
M≥6.5	0.220	0.000	0.300	0.200	0.300	0.900 (90.00%)	0.700 (70.00%)
M≥6.6	0.170	0.000	0.300	0.200	0.300	0.800 (80.00%)	0.700 (70.00%)
M≥6.7	0.130	0.000	0.300	0.100	0.200	0.700 (70.00%)	0.600 (60.00%)
M≥6.8	0.070	0.000	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.400 (40.00%)	0.400 (40.00%)
M≥6.9	0.060	0.000	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.400 (40.00%)	0.400 (40.00%)
M≥7	0.060	0.000	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.400 (40.00%)	0.400 (40.00%)
M≥7.1	0.030	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.300 (30.00%)	0.200 (20.00%)
M≥7.2	0.020	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.200 (20.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.3	0.010	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100 (10.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.4	0.010	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100 (10.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.5	0.010	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100 (10.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.6	0.010	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100 (10.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.7	0.010	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100 (10.00%)	0.100 (10.00%)
M≥7.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000 (0.00%)

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 34 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.04	0.3
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.03	0.3
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.03	0.3
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM	0.02	0.2
Green Valley 2011 CFM	0.02	0.1
Hunting Creek - Berryessa 2011 CFM	0.02	0.1
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.02	0.2
Bartlett Springs 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Bear River fault zone	0.01	0.1
Big Lagoon - Bald Mtn 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 21 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.02	0.2
Bartlett Springs 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Big Lagoon - Bald Mtn 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Blue Cut	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (No) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Cerro Prieto	0.01	0.1
Eaton Roughs 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Franklin 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Green Valley 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
Big Lagoon - Bald Mtn 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Blue Cut	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Calaveras (No) 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Franklin 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
Hayward (So) extension 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.01	0.1
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.01	0.1
Trinidad (alt1)	0.01	0.1

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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Parent Name	Total Mean Annual Rate	Total 10 Year Prob
Big Lagoon - Bald Mtn 2011 CFM	0.01	0.1

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 10,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startYear": 2018,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": false,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Spontaneous Only",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/tutorial/user_output/spontaneous_only",
  "cacheDir": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "$ETAS_LAUNCHER/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}