Lagged regressor having only positive values

[Miky14880]

Hello all,
first of all, hats off for the super job done on this package!
Here is my question: I am currently using NP with a lagged regressor that has by def only positive values (mortgage rate).
Nevertheless, when I check the regressor columns for the forecasted steps, I see negative values.
Am I doing something wrong or missing something? Is there any way to limit the regressors to positive values only?

Any suggestion is welcome, thanks in advance!
Regards
Michela

[ourownstory]

Hi @Miky14880
While the regressor may be positive overall, it may still have a negative (speak lowering) effect on the overall forecast. That is what the forecast component is showing you.

[ourownstory]

e.g. a high mortgage rate may have a negative effect on volume of home sales.