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docs/source/notebooks/graded_intervention_time_series_single_channel_ols.ipynb

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"- **Computational efficiency**: Fast OLS with corrected standard errors\n",
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"- **Proven reliability**: Well-established method with strong theoretical properties\n",
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"\n",
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"With HAC (see detailed explanation in the admonition box below):\n",
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"With HAC (see detailed explanation in the box below):\n",
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"- ✅ **Causal estimates remain valid**: Treatment effect coefficients are unbiased\n",
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"- ✅ **Inference is corrected**: Standard errors, confidence intervals, and p-values account for autocorrelation\n",
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"- ✅ **No model specification required**: Don't need to guess AR order or lag structure\n",
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"source": [
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":::{admonition} Implementation notes\n",
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":class: warning\n",
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"This notebook demonstrates the **non-Bayesian implementation** using:\n",
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"- OLS regression first with with HAC standard errors (fast, robust inference), then with ARIMAX.\n",
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"- Automated transform parameter estimation via grid search or continuous optimization\n",
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"- Point estimates only (future: bootstrap confidence intervals, Bayesian uncertainty quantification)\n",
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"This notebook demonstrates multiple approaches to Transfer Function ITS:\n",
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"- OLS regression with HAC standard errors (fast, robust inference)\n",
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"- OLS with ARIMAX error models (explicit autocorrelation modeling)\n",
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"- Automated transform parameter estimation (grid search and continuous optimization)\n",
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"- Bayesian inference with PyMC (full posterior uncertainty quantification)\n",
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":::"
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]
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},

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