Merge branch 'main' into cetagostini/adding_bsts_to_causalpy

Author: cetagostini

.github/workflows/ci.yml

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ jobs:
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
     strategy:
       matrix:
-        python-version: ["3.10", "3.11", "3.12"]
+        python-version: ["3.11", "3.12", "3.13"]
 
     steps:
       - uses: actions/checkout@v4

.pre-commit-config.yaml

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ repos:
           - --exclude=docs/
           - --exclude=scripts/
   - repo: https://github.com/pre-commit/pre-commit-hooks
-    rev: v5.0.0
+    rev: v6.0.0
     hooks:
       - id: debug-statements
       - id: trailing-whitespace
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ repos:
         exclude: &exclude_pattern 'iv_weak_instruments.ipynb'
         args: ["--maxkb=1500"]
   - repo: https://github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit
-    rev: v0.12.5
+    rev: v0.13.2
     hooks:
       # Run the linter
       - id: ruff

causalpy/experiments/prepostnegd.py

@@ -82,7 +82,7 @@ class PrePostNEGD(BaseExperiment):
         Intercept      -0.5, 94% HDI [-1, 0.2]
         C(group)[T.1]  2, 94% HDI [2, 2]
         pre            1, 94% HDI [1, 1]
-        sigma          0.5, 94% HDI [0.5, 0.6]
+        y_hat_sigma    0.5, 94% HDI [0.5, 0.6]
     """
 
     supports_ols = False

causalpy/pymc_models.py

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@
 import xarray as xr
 from arviz import r2_score
 from patsy import dmatrix
+from pymc_extras.prior import Prior
 
 from causalpy.utils import round_num
 
@@ -90,7 +91,87 @@ class PyMCModel(pm.Model):
     Inference data...
     """
 
-    def __init__(self, sample_kwargs: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None):
+    default_priors = {}
+
+    def priors_from_data(self, X, y) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        """
+        Generate priors dynamically based on the input data.
+
+        This method allows models to set sensible priors that adapt to the scale
+        and characteristics of the actual data being analyzed. It's called during
+        the `fit()` method before model building, allowing data-driven prior
+        specification that can improve model performance and convergence.
+
+        The priors returned by this method are merged with any user-specified
+        priors (passed via the `priors` parameter in `__init__`), with
+        user-specified priors taking precedence in case of conflicts.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        X : xarray.DataArray
+            Input features/covariates with dimensions ["obs_ind", "coeffs"].
+            Used to understand the scale and structure of predictors.
+        y : xarray.DataArray
+            Target variable with dimensions ["obs_ind", "treated_units"].
+            Used to understand the scale and structure of the outcome.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        Dict[str, Prior]
+            Dictionary mapping parameter names to Prior objects. The keys should
+            match parameter names used in the model's `build_model()` method.
+
+        Notes
+        -----
+        The base implementation returns an empty dictionary, meaning no
+        data-driven priors are set by default. Subclasses should override
+        this method to implement data-adaptive prior specification.
+
+        **Priority Order for Priors:**
+        1. User-specified priors (passed to `__init__`)
+        2. Data-driven priors (from this method)
+        3. Default priors (from `default_priors` property)
+
+        Examples
+        --------
+        A typical implementation might scale priors based on data variance:
+
+        >>> def priors_from_data(self, X, y):
+        ...     y_std = float(y.std())
+        ...     return {
+        ...         "sigma": Prior("HalfNormal", sigma=y_std, dims="treated_units"),
+        ...         "beta": Prior(
+        ...             "Normal",
+        ...             mu=0,
+        ...             sigma=2 * y_std,
+        ...             dims=["treated_units", "coeffs"],
+        ...         ),
+        ...     }
+
+        Or set shape parameters based on data dimensions:
+
+        >>> def priors_from_data(self, X, y):
+        ...     n_predictors = X.shape[1]
+        ...     return {
+        ...         "beta": Prior(
+        ...             "Dirichlet",
+        ...             a=np.ones(n_predictors),
+        ...             dims=["treated_units", "coeffs"],
+        ...         )
+        ...     }
+
+        See Also
+        --------
+        WeightedSumFitter.priors_from_data : Example implementation that sets
+            Dirichlet prior shape based on number of control units.
+        """
+        return {}
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        sample_kwargs: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
+        priors: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
+    ):
         """
         :param sample_kwargs: A dictionary of kwargs that get unpacked and passed to the
             :func:`pymc.sample` function. Defaults to an empty dictionary.
@@ -99,9 +180,13 @@ def __init__(self, sample_kwargs: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None):
         self.idata = None
         self.sample_kwargs = sample_kwargs if sample_kwargs is not None else {}
 
+        self.priors = {**self.default_priors, **(priors or {})}
+
     def build_model(self, X, y, coords) -> None:
         """Build the model, must be implemented by subclass."""
-        raise NotImplementedError("This method must be implemented by a subclass")
+        raise NotImplementedError(
+            "This method must be implemented by a subclass"
+        )  # pragma: no cover
 
     def _data_setter(self, X: xr.DataArray) -> None:
         """
@@ -144,6 +229,10 @@ def fit(self, X, y, coords: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None) -> None:
         # sample_posterior_predictive() if provided in sample_kwargs.
         random_seed = self.sample_kwargs.get("random_seed", None)
 
+        # Merge priors with precedence: user-specified > data-driven > defaults
+        # Data-driven priors are computed first, then user-specified priors override them
+        self.priors = {**self.priors_from_data(X, y), **self.priors}
+
         self.build_model(X, y, coords)
         with self:
             self.idata = pm.sample(**self.sample_kwargs)
@@ -260,26 +349,36 @@ def print_coefficients_for_unit(
         ) -> None:
             """Print coefficients for a single unit"""
             # Determine the width of the longest label
-            max_label_length = max(len(name) for name in labels + ["sigma"])
+            max_label_length = max(len(name) for name in labels + ["y_hat_sigma"])
 
             for name in labels:
                 coeff_samples = unit_coeffs.sel(coeffs=name)
                 print_row(max_label_length, name, coeff_samples, round_to)
 
             # Add coefficient for measurement std
-            print_row(max_label_length, "sigma", unit_sigma, round_to)
+            print_row(max_label_length, "y_hat_sigma", unit_sigma, round_to)
 
         print("Model coefficients:")
         coeffs = az.extract(self.idata.posterior, var_names="beta")
 
-        # Always has treated_units dimension - no branching needed!
+        # Check if sigma or y_hat_sigma variable exists
+        sigma_var_name = None
+        if "sigma" in self.idata.posterior:
+            sigma_var_name = "sigma"
+        elif "y_hat_sigma" in self.idata.posterior:
+            sigma_var_name = "y_hat_sigma"
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(
+                "Neither 'sigma' nor 'y_hat_sigma' found in posterior"
+            )  # pragma: no cover
+
         treated_units = coeffs.coords["treated_units"].values
         for unit in treated_units:
             if len(treated_units) > 1:
                 print(f"\nTreated unit: {unit}")
 
             unit_coeffs = coeffs.sel(treated_units=unit)
-            unit_sigma = az.extract(self.idata.posterior, var_names="sigma").sel(
+            unit_sigma = az.extract(self.idata.posterior, var_names=sigma_var_name).sel(
                 treated_units=unit
             )
             print_coefficients_for_unit(unit_coeffs, unit_sigma, labels, round_to or 2)
@@ -322,6 +421,15 @@ class LinearRegression(PyMCModel):
     Inference data...
     """  # noqa: W605
 
+    default_priors = {
+        "beta": Prior("Normal", mu=0, sigma=50, dims=["treated_units", "coeffs"]),
+        "y_hat": Prior(
+            "Normal",
+            sigma=Prior("HalfNormal", sigma=1, dims=["treated_units"]),
+            dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"],
+        ),
+    }
+
     def build_model(self, X, y, coords):
         """
         Defines the PyMC model
@@ -335,12 +443,11 @@ def build_model(self, X, y, coords):
             self.add_coords(coords)
             X = pm.Data("X", X, dims=["obs_ind", "coeffs"])
             y = pm.Data("y", y, dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"])
-            beta = pm.Normal("beta", 0, 50, dims=["treated_units", "coeffs"])
-            sigma = pm.HalfNormal("sigma", 1, dims="treated_units")
+            beta = self.priors["beta"].create_variable("beta")
             mu = pm.Deterministic(
                 "mu", pt.dot(X, beta.T), dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"]
             )
-            pm.Normal("y_hat", mu, sigma, observed=y, dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"])
+            self.priors["y_hat"].create_likelihood_variable("y_hat", mu=mu, observed=y)
 
 
 class WeightedSumFitter(PyMCModel):
@@ -383,23 +490,56 @@ class WeightedSumFitter(PyMCModel):
     Inference data...
     """  # noqa: W605
 
+    default_priors = {
+        "y_hat": Prior(
+            "Normal",
+            sigma=Prior("HalfNormal", sigma=1, dims=["treated_units"]),
+            dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"],
+        ),
+    }
+
+    def priors_from_data(self, X, y) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        """
+        Set Dirichlet prior for weights based on number of control units.
+
+        For synthetic control models, this method sets the shape parameter of the
+        Dirichlet prior on the control unit weights (`beta`) to be uniform across
+        all available control units. This ensures that all control units have
+        equal prior probability of contributing to the synthetic control.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        X : xarray.DataArray
+            Control unit data with shape (n_obs, n_control_units).
+        y : xarray.DataArray
+            Treated unit outcome data.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        Dict[str, Prior]
+            Dictionary containing:
+            - "beta": Dirichlet prior with shape=(1,...,1) for n_control_units
+        """
+        n_predictors = X.shape[1]
+        return {
+            "beta": Prior(
+                "Dirichlet", a=np.ones(n_predictors), dims=["treated_units", "coeffs"]
+            ),
+        }
+
     def build_model(self, X, y, coords):
         """
         Defines the PyMC model
         """
         with self:
             self.add_coords(coords)
-            n_predictors = X.sizes["coeffs"]
             X = pm.Data("X", X, dims=["obs_ind", "coeffs"])
             y = pm.Data("y", y, dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"])
-            beta = pm.Dirichlet(
-                "beta", a=np.ones(n_predictors), dims=["treated_units", "coeffs"]
-            )
-            sigma = pm.HalfNormal("sigma", 1, dims="treated_units")
+            beta = self.priors["beta"].create_variable("beta")
             mu = pm.Deterministic(
                 "mu", pt.dot(X, beta.T), dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"]
             )
-            pm.Normal("y_hat", mu, sigma, observed=y, dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"])
+            self.priors["y_hat"].create_likelihood_variable("y_hat", mu=mu, observed=y)
 
 
 class InstrumentalVariableRegression(PyMCModel):
@@ -589,21 +729,18 @@ class PropensityScore(PyMCModel):
     Inference...
     """  # noqa: W605
 
-    def build_model(self, X, t, coords, prior, noncentred):
+    default_priors = {
+        "b": Prior("Normal", mu=0, sigma=1, dims="coeffs"),
+    }
+
+    def build_model(self, X, t, coords, prior=None, noncentred=True):
         "Defines the PyMC propensity model"
         with self:
             self.add_coords(coords)
             X_data = pm.Data("X", X, dims=["obs_ind", "coeffs"])
             t_data = pm.Data("t", t.flatten(), dims="obs_ind")
-            if noncentred:
-                mu_beta, sigma_beta = prior["b"]
-                beta_std = pm.Normal("beta_std", 0, 1, dims="coeffs")
-                b = pm.Deterministic(
-                    "beta_", mu_beta + sigma_beta * beta_std, dims="coeffs"
-                )
-            else:
-                b = pm.Normal("b", mu=prior["b"][0], sigma=prior["b"][1], dims="coeffs")
-            mu = pm.math.dot(X_data, b)
+            b = self.priors["b"].create_variable("b")
+            mu = pt.dot(X_data, b)
             p = pm.Deterministic("p", pm.math.invlogit(mu))
             pm.Bernoulli("t_pred", p=p, observed=t_data, dims="obs_ind")