Add Modified Beta Geometric model (#1301)

* Modified Beta Geometric model

* Run pre-commit, skipping mypy unrelated errors

* Fix convergence tests and add _model_type

* Add ModBetaGeoModel to __all__

* Delete L81-82 comment on likelihood refactor

* MBG tests coefficients match those of lifetimes

* Delete test_numerically_stable_logp

* Parametrize test_missing_cols

* Rename ModBetaGeoModel -> ModifiedBetaGeoModel

* Add MBG/NBD notebook

* Update paper reference to MBG/NBD model in docs/source/notebooks/clv/mbg_nbd.ipynb

* Improve ModifiedBetaGeoModel docstring

* Updated expected_purchases docstring

* Update expected_probability_alive doctring

* Update expected_purchases_new_customer docstring

* Mode dataframe definition out of with-block in test_customer_id_duplicate

* Reduce rtol in model convergence test

* Raise NotImplementedError in ModifiedBetaGeoModel.expected_probability_no_purchase. Remove part in notebook

* Add Weibull Prior to notebook

* Add expected_probability_no_purchase function signature. Remove associated tests. Add raise NotImplementedError test

* Add MBG/NBD to clv_quickstart, index.md and README

* Remove Weibull priors section in mbg_nbd.ipynb

* Clear imports cell output

* Add MBG/NBD notebook to index.md

Author: PabloRoque

README.md

@@ -144,6 +144,7 @@ Understand and optimize your customer's value with our **CLV models**. Our API s
 - [Pareto/NBD model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/pareto_nbd.html)
 - [Gamma-Gamma model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/gamma_gamma.html)
 - [Shifted Beta-Geo model](https://www.pymc-marketing.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/sBG.html)
+- [Modified BG/NBD model](https//pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/mbg_nbd.html)
 
 ### Examples
 

docs/source/index.md

@@ -136,6 +136,7 @@ Understand and optimize your customer's value with our **CLV models**. Our API s
 - [Pareto/NBD model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/pareto_nbd.html)
 - [Gamma-Gamma model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/gamma_gamma.html)
 - [Shifted Beta-Geo model](https://www.pymc-marketing.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/sBG.html)
+- [Modified BG/NBD model](https//pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/mbg_nbd.html)
 
 Each of these models is tailored to different types of data and business scenarios:
 

docs/source/notebooks/clv/clv_quickstart.ipynb

@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@
     "* **[BG/BB model](https://www.pymc-marketing.io/en/latest/api/generated/pymc_marketing.clv.models.beta_geo_beta_binom.BetaGeoBetaBinomModel.html)** for discrete time, contractual modeling\n",
     "* **Exponential Gamma model** for discrete time, contractual modeling (coming soon)\n",
     "* **[Gamma-Gamma model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/gamma_gamma.html)** for expected monetary value\n",
+    "* **[Modified BG/NBD model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/mbg_nbd.html)**, similar to [BG/NBD model](https://pymc-marketing.readthedocs.io/en/stable/notebooks/clv/bg_nbd.html) but assigning \"drop out\" probability after first purchase\n",
     "\n",
     "This table contains a breakdown of the four BTYD modeling domains, and examples for each:\n",
     "\n",

docs/source/notebooks/clv/mbg_nbd.ipynb

@@ -29,6 +29,7 @@ clv/bg_nbd
 clv/gamma_gamma
 clv/pareto_nbd
 clv/sBG
+clv/mbg_nbd
 :::
 
 :::{toctree}

docs/source/notebooks/index.md

@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@
     BetaGeoModel,
     GammaGammaModel,
     GammaGammaModelIndividual,
+    ModifiedBetaGeoModel,
     ParetoNBDModel,
     ShiftedBetaGeoModelIndividual,
 )
@@ -40,6 +41,7 @@
     "BetaGeoModel",
     "GammaGammaModel",
     "GammaGammaModelIndividual",
+    "ModifiedBetaGeoModel",
     "ParetoNBDModel",
     "ShiftedBetaGeoModelIndividual",
     "customer_lifetime_value",

pymc_marketing/clv/__init__.py

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
     GammaGammaModel,
     GammaGammaModelIndividual,
 )
+from pymc_marketing.clv.models.modified_beta_geo import ModifiedBetaGeoModel
 from pymc_marketing.clv.models.pareto_nbd import ParetoNBDModel
 from pymc_marketing.clv.models.shifted_beta_geo import ShiftedBetaGeoModelIndividual
 
@@ -30,6 +31,7 @@
     "CLVModel",
     "GammaGammaModel",
     "GammaGammaModelIndividual",
+    "ModifiedBetaGeoModel",
     "ParetoNBDModel",
     "ShiftedBetaGeoModelIndividual",
 )