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Scenario Deck — Launch Origin Templates

On each run the sim secretly draws one scenario from this deck. The player never receives 100% proof before making catastrophic decisions.

Rogue DPRK SLBM Misfire

Summary: A North Korean ballistic-missile submarine fired a demonstration shot intended as a show of force. The launch guidance glitched and the booster placed the payload into a low Earth / fractional-orbital arc. U.S. sensors picked it up late over the northwest Pacific.

Key facts (true in this scenario):

  • DPRK did not intend a live nuclear detonation on Chicago; the warhead may be unarmed.
  • DPRK command-and-control goes dark after launch (appears ominous).
  • China may quietly contact the U.S.: “Stand down and we’ll handle Kim,” — or they may not.
  • If the U.S. strikes Pyongyang, Russia and China assume first-strike intent and escalate to high alert.

Behavior to inject:

  • Radar signature: late boost/no boost-phase detection; midcourse track consistent with fractional orbit.
  • Comms: DPRK comms dark; occasional bursts possible.
  • Foreign posture: China nervous but potentially cooperative; Russia watchful.
  • Domestic: high pressure to act.

Russian False Flag / Plausible Deniability

Summary: A rogue Russian hardliner cell launches a covert ICBM using a hidden platform or proxy technology, intending to frame DPRK or Iran and provoke U.S. overreaction.

Key facts:

  • Russian civilian leadership denies involvement and urges the U.S. not to retaliate.
  • The perpetrators' goal is to fracture U.S. alliances.
  • If the U.S. hits Russian territory, Russia immediately escalates to full nuclear posture.

Behavior to inject:

  • Radar signature: realistic ICBM boost + midcourse.
  • Comms: urgent Russian hotline traffic denying responsibility.
  • Foreign posture: Russia threatens massive retaliation if attacked.
  • Domestic: mixed coalition of hawks and caution.

PLA Tech Demonstration Gone Off-Script

Summary: China was running a hypersonic / fractional-orbit test. Guidance failed, and the test article fell onto a trajectory U.S. sensors interpreted as an ICBM inbound to Chicago.

Key facts:

  • Beijing insists the object is an unarmed test article.
  • STRATCOM urges rapid OPLAN 8010 options.
  • Standing down may trigger internal U.S. military distrust.

Behavior to inject:

  • Radar signature: ambiguous telemetry that could be either test article or live warhead.
  • Comms: China urgently protests U.S. interpretation; defensive scrambling.
  • Foreign posture: China fearful of U.S. overreaction.
  • Domestic: hawks vs. cautious advisors.

Iranian / Proxy “One-Use Device”

Summary: Iran or a proxy acquired or built a single ICBM-class system intended to generate strategic terror and force a U.S. political retreat.

Key facts:

  • The warhead may be nuclear, improvised, or a dirty-device threat.
  • Intercepts fail or produce ambiguous results.
  • Russia and China move to protect Iran and warn the U.S. against retaliation.

Behavior to inject:

  • Radar signature: lofted IRBM/ICBM profile.
  • Comms: Iran may taunt, deny, or stay silent.
  • Foreign posture: Russia/China defensive alignment.
  • Domestic: extreme public demands for retaliation.

U.S. System Spoof / Cyberattack

Summary: No missile exists. Radar, DSP satellites, and NORAD feeds were spoofed through coordinated cyber/electronic warfare.

Key facts:

  • All telemetry is fabricated or manipulated.
  • Nuclear retaliation based on false data would trigger civilization-ending conflict.
  • Represents a top-tier STRATCOM nightmare scenario.

Behavior to inject:

  • Radar signature: synthetic midcourse track with no boost-phase match.
  • Comms: foreign states confused or opportunistic.
  • Domestic: panic based on false readings.

Accidental U.S. Launch (Ultra-rare — Dark Ending Path)

Summary: A malfunction or insider event caused a U.S. system to appear as an inbound threat. Retaliation would constitute an accidental first strike.

Key facts:

  • True origin is U.S. infrastructure.
  • Aftermath consequences are catastrophic if revealed.
  • Intended as a hidden dark-ending scenario.

Behavior to inject:

  • Radar signature: internally inconsistent data, subtle U.S. system fingerprints.
  • Comms: internal denials and chaos.
  • Foreign posture: rapid escalation if struck.
  • Domestic: catastrophic political fallout.

Scenario Injection Notes

Each scenario should deterministically alter:

  • Radar signatures
  • Comms behavior
  • Domestic political reactions
  • Foreign posture
  • Continuity-of-government survivability
  • Probability Chicago is actually hit

The sim never reveals the true scenario unless the player survives to debrief.