Add number of convictions filed to analysis

[ghing]

@GovInTrenches writes:

Actually, we do know how many cases were filed in the time period.

https://performance.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Number-Of-Felony-Cases-Filed-By-Felony-Class/kcfs-dufb

https://performance.cookcountyil.gov/dataset/Quarterly-Data/wvz2-c4cu?q=misdemeanor

See also: https://datacatalog.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Public-Safety-Q3-Performance-Management-Goal-Asses/iwtc-d53w
Let’s compare these numbers as part of our analysis.

[Yana715]

Hi all, I think we should add this as an additional question - of the cases filed, how many result in convictions? From there, we will compare the number of felony convictions in our data with the number of felony cases filed.

If Geoff can find the number of conviction cases we have for the relevant years, I will write up a paragraph and send it out for review. In this paragraph, I'll also plan to note caveats, for example that some of our cases started before 2005 or 2006. Let me know of any other things I should be sure to include in the analysis.

Thoughts?

[bepetersn]

I know that cases can have their charge change; can they change from felony to misdemeanor or the reverse? If so, that would impact what the ratio of convictions to filed means.

[tjakester]

Absolutely. In fact many low level felonies get pled down to a misdemeanor over time.

Tracy

On Nov 27, 2014, at 10:45 AM, Brian Everett Peterson notifications@github.com wrote:

I know that cases can have their charge change; can they change from felony to misdemeanor or the reverse? If so, that would impact what the ratio of convictions to filed means.

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[ghing]

@GovInTrenches, just to be clear, from the links you provided, we only have felony cases filed for the years that match our data, right? The links that provided numbers of misdemeanor cases filed seem to not cover 2005-2009.

[ghing]

I added three worksheets to the Tarbell spreadsheet.

• felony_cases_filed - The data copied and pasted from https://performance.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Number-Of-Felony-Cases-Filed-By-Felony-Class/kcfs-dufb
• felony_conviction_cases_by_class_final - Counts of cases that ended up as felonies
• felony_conviction_cases_by_class_always - Counts of cases that started as felonies and were not amended down to misdemeanors

I used the initial_date field of our records to assign a case to a particular year.

There are a couple of weird things:

• The number of murder convictions is really low and decreases as we move further along in our data (that is 2009). I hypothesize that the main cause of this is that there are some cases that were filed in a given year that take a number of years to finish. So many murder cases filed in 2009 might not get a conviction until years later, and thus fall out of our data.
• The number of convictions for Class 4 felonies outnumbers the number of Class 4 felony cases filed. I have no idea why this is the case.

[GovInTrenches]

@shua123 - can you verify this for us?

Christopher Whitaker

(Sent from iPhone)

On Dec 1, 2014, at 07:44, Geoffrey Hing notifications@github.com wrote:

@GovInTrenches, just to be clear, from the links you provided, we only have felony cases filed for the years that match our data, right? The links that provided numbers of misdemeanor cases filed seem to not cover 2005-2009.

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[shua123]

@ghing @GovInTrenches Yeah, it looks like there is just felony cases there for 2005-2009, not misdemeanors.

[Yana715]

Thanks, all. I'll work on putting a paragraph together about this tomorrow, and will plan to reach out to Tracy for any help needed with analysis.

[Yana715]

Question: Of all the felony cases filed, how many result in a conviction?

Answer: According to data from the Circuit Court of Cook County, 173, 204 felony cases were filed between 2005 and 2009. The majority of these were the lowest-level felonies – class 4.

The total number of cases filed as felonies that remained felonies between 2005 and 2009 were 144, 835. This number may be smaller than the original count of felony cases because some felony cases originated in 2005-2009, such as that for murder, may take several years to work through the system.

In additional, plea bargains on cases in Cook County Court have a significant effect on the final convictions. Some of the charges filed as high-level felonies were downgraded to lower-level felonies in the data. In addition, some felony cases may be pushed up to misdemeanor cases.

[Graphic – how do the cases filed compare to how many originated and are felonies, compared to those that started as misdemeanors. Maybe we can choose a year to look at, or use a table to show all the numbers]

Outstanding questions:

• What is the best way to analyze and visualize how many cases went from high-level to low-level felony? That for me is the most interesting number

[ghing]

Here's a revision:

Question: Of all the felony cases filed, how many result in a conviction?

Answer: A separate data set, from the Circuit Court of Cook County, shows that 173,204 felony cases were filed between 2005 and 2009. The majority of these were the lowest-level felonies - class 4.

The data set requested by CJP shows that, during the same time period, 145,487 cases that were filed as felonies resulted in a conviction, with 144,835 of those cases resulting in a felony conviction. This number is smaller than the number of cases filed not only because some cases did not result in conviction but because the data reflecting cases that resulted in a conviction may not contain records for cases that were filed in 2005-2009 but had not have been completed when the data was requested.

In additional, plea bargains on cases in Cook County Court have a significant effect on the final convictions. Some of the cases in the data were filed with charges for high-level felonies and later amended to lower-level felonies or misdemeanors.

[ghing]

@Yana715 to answer your second question, I added a worksheet to the Tarbell spreadsheet called cases_class_change. The first column is the class from, and the subsequent columns are the class to. So, there were 2518 cases with charges that started as a Class 4 Felony and were amended to a Class A Misdemeanor. There were 47578 cases with charges that started as Class 4 Felonies and stayed that way, and 69 cases that started as Class 4 Felonies and were upgraded to Class 3 Felonies. Make sense?

I also made a percentage version, in the sheet cases_class_change_pct which is perhaps easier to see trends. For example, Class 1 Felonies saw the most change, with 30.16% of cases with charges that started as Class 1 Felonies having amended charges down to Class 4 Felonies.