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"This design evaluates whether the treatment works well enough by checking if its response rate is above %.1f%% in most simulated trials (at least %.0f%% of the time).",
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"This single-arm design determines treatment efficacy by testing whether the posterior probability that the response rate exceeds %.0f%% is at least %.0f%%.",
"The trial includes %s patients, with an expected success rate of %.1f%%.",
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"The trial includes %s patients, with an assumed true response rate of %.0f%%.",
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nt, 100*pt
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)
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prior_txt<-switch(
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prior_type,
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"flat"="The analysis uses a flat prior, meaning all possible success rates are considered equally likely before seeing any data.",
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"flat"="The Bayesian analysis uses a flat prior, treating all response rates between 0% and 100% as equally likely before observing any data.",
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"beta"= sprintf(
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"The analysis uses a Beta prior with values a = %.2f and b = %.2f, which reflects prior beliefs about likely success rates.",
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"The Bayesian analysis uses a Beta prior with shape parameters a = %.2f and b = %.2f, reflecting prior beliefs about likely response rates.",
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a_base, b_base
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),
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"unknown prior type"
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)
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sim_txt<- sprintf(
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"The results are based on %s simulated trials, each using %s draws from the posterior.",
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fmt_int(B), fmt_int(ndraws)
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)
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method_txt<-"Once data are observed, Bayesian inference is performed using a Beta–Binomial model. Because the Beta distribution is conjugate to the Binomial likelihood, the posterior distribution also follows a Beta distribution. This allows direct computation of the probability that the true response rate exceeds the pre-specified margin."
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