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Fix number of fractures to actually be 102 per well (previous version apparently erroneously multiplied 108 * 102 instead of _118_ * 102). Corresponding and additional verifications in FervoProjectCape4TestCase
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‎docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md

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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated
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using
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the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).
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Key case study results include LCOE = $75.5/MWh and CAPEX = $4300/kW.
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Key case study results include LCOE = $75.5/MWh and CAPEX = $4290/kW.
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[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to
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interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
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| Number of Fractures per well | 102 | Estimate. (Note this is not a direct GEOPHIRES input parameter but was used to calculate other case study GEOPHIRES input parameters such as reservoir volume.) |
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| Fracture Separation | 18 m | Per Norbeck et al, 2024: lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. |
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| Fracture Geometry | 165.3 m × 165.3 m (Square) | Extrapolated from 30 million ft² fracture surface area per well per Fercho et al, 2025. |
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| Reservoir Volume | 5,418,039,158 m³ | Calculated from fracture area (27,324.09 m²) × fracture separation (18 m) × targeted number of fractures per well (102) |
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| Reservoir Volume | 5,919,217,617 m³ | Calculated from fracture area (27,324.09 m²) × fracture separation (18 m) × targeted number of fractures per well (102) |
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| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). |
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| Maximum Drawdown | 0.0153 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years |
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| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields ~15% initial pumping power/net installed power |
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|------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $75.5/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.64B | | |
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| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4300/kW (based on maximum total electricity generation) | $4500/kW, $3000–$6000/kW | Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4290/kW (based on maximum total electricity generation) | $4500/kW, $3000–$6000/kW | Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
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| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
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| After-tax IRR | 31.5% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|-------------------------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 503 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 614 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 504 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Number of times redrilling | 3 | 3–6 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start |
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| Average Production Temperature | 199℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. |
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| Total fracture surface area per production well | 2.787×10⁶ m² | 2.787×10⁶ m² (30 million ft² per well) | Fercho et al, 2025. |

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