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Fervo_Project_Cape-4 reservoir impedance
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‎docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md‎

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@@ -34,12 +34,12 @@ the [web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-e
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|-----------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| Well diameter | 9⅝ inches | Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" |
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| Flow Rate per Production Well | 107 kg/s | Maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station per https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal. The announced increased casing diameter implies higher flow rates. |
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| Number of doublets | 54 | Estimate based on extrapolation from [Project Red](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023) and [Fervo_Project_Cape-3](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-3) |
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| Number of doublets | 59 | Estimate based on extrapolation from previous case studies including [Project Red](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023) and [Fervo_Project_Cape-3](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-3) |
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| Fracture Separation | 18 m | Per https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/, lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. |
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| Reservoir Volume | 5,801,599,999 m³ | Extrapolation based on a resulting heat extraction profile that is plausible and compatible with required electricity production. |
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| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate estimated to be between 10 and 20% |
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| Maximum Drawdown | 0.009 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years |
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| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001 GPa.s/m³ | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) |
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| Maximum Drawdown | 0.017 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years |
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| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields 15% initial pumping power/net installed power |
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| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 |
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| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal. Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. |
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| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.84 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe, D. and Witter. E. 2025. "2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update". https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2025/Akindipe.pdf?t=1740084555; Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal. |
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $78.6/MWh | $80/MWh | https://www.nature.com/articles/s44359-024-00019-9 |
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| LCOE | $82.7/MWh | $80/MWh | https://www.nature.com/articles/s44359-024-00019-9 |
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| Project capital costs | ~$4200/kW (based on maximum total electricity generation) | $4500/kW, $3000–$6000/kW | https://www.nature.com/articles/s44359-024-00019-9; Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 563 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 550 MW. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 505 MW | 500 MW | https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Average Production Temperature | 199.1℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | https://jpt.spe.org/fervo-and-forge-report-breakthrough-test-results-signaling-more-progress-for-enhanced-geothermal; https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 500 MW | 500 MW | https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Average Production Temperature | 198.9℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | https://jpt.spe.org/fervo-and-forge-report-breakthrough-test-results-signaling-more-progress-for-enhanced-geothermal; https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Cost Correlation | $3.96M/well | $<4M/well | Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal |
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| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc |
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| After-tax IRR | 16.85% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| After-tax IRR | 15% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| Number of times redrilling | 2 | 1–4 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start |
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See [Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out](https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/blob/main/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out)

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