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don't override default 5% stimulation indirect cost
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docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md

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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated
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using
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the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).
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Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW.
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Key case study results include LCOE = $81.8/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW.
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[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to
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interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
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| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 |
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| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. |
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| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (including 15% contingency and 0% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). |
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| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.83M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency and 5% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). |
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| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. |
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| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% |
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| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate |
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | |
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| LCOE | $81.8/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.69B | | |
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| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
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| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
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| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| After-tax IRR | 26.9% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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### Technical & Engineering Results
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