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Injection temperature = 53.6C based on GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temp
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‎docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md

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The GEOPHIRES example `Fervo_Project_Cape-4` models a 500 MWe EGS Project based on
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on Fervo Cape Station with its April 2025-announced
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[upsizing from 400 MW to 500 MW](https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/).
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Case study inputs are formulated using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates. Financial results are calculated
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Case study inputs are formulated using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates.
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Financial results are calculated
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using
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the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).
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Key case study results include LCOE = $79.4/MWh and CAPEX = $4650/kW.
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Key case study results include LCOE = $78.8/MWh and CAPEX = $4650/kW.
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[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
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[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to
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interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
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## Approach & Methodology
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| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. |
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| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 |
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| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB baseline (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. |
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| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.84 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe and Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.84 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor | 2.66 | Estimated cost of ~$2M per well. Typical range for Nth-of-kind projects may be $0.5–2M. |
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| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. |
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| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% |
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| Fracture Geometry | 165.3 m × 165.3 m (Square) | Extrapolated from 30 million ft² fracture surface area per well per Fercho et al, 2025. |
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| Reservoir Volume | 5,418,039,158 m³ | Calculated from fracture area (27,324.09 m²) × fracture separation (18 m) × targeted number of fractures per well (102) |
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| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). |
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| Maximum Drawdown | 0.014 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years |
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| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields 16% initial pumping power/net installed power |
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| Injection Temperature | 80 ℃ | Fercho et al, 2025. |
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| Maximum Drawdown | 0.015 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years |
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| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields ~15% initial pumping power/net installed power |
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| Injection Temperature | 53.6 ℃ | Calibrated with GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature (Beckers & McCabe, 2019). Close to upper bound of Project Red injection temperatures (75–125℉; 23.89–51.67℃) (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023). |
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## Results
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $79.4/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| LCOE | $78.8/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.86B | | |
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| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4650/kW (based on maximum total electricity generation) | $4500/kW, $3000–$6000/kW | Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
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| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
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| After-tax IRR | 27.7% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| After-tax IRR | 28% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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### Technical & Engineering Results
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|-------------------------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 500 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 503 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Number of times redrilling | 3 | 3–6 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start |
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| Average Production Temperature | 199℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. |
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Akindipe, D. and Witter. E. (2025). "2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves
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Update". https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2025/Akindipe.pdf?t=1740084555
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Beckers, K., McCabe, K. (2019) GEOPHIRES v2.0: updated geothermal techno-economic simulation tool. Geotherm Energy
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7,5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40517-019-0119-6
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Fercho, S., Norbeck, J., Dadi, S., Matson, G., Borell, J., McConville, E., Webb, S., Bowie, C., & Rhodes, G. (2025).
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Update on the geology, temperature, fracturing, and resource potential at the Cape Geothermal Project informed by data
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acquired from the drilling of additional horizontal EGS wells. Proceedings of the 50th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir
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NREL. (2024). Annual Technology Baseline: Recent Public Geothermal Power Purchase Agreement
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Pricing. https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal
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Norbeck, J., Gradl, C., Latimer, T. (2024, September 10). "Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to
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Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements." https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C
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Norbeck, J., Gradl, C., Latimer, T. (2024, September 10). Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to
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Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C
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Norbeck J., Latimer T. (2023). Commercial-Scale Demonstration of a First-of-a-Kind Enhanced Geothermal
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System. https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B
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US DOE. (2021). Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series: Waste Heat to
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Power. https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf

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