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Fervo_Project_Cape-4 doc sensitivity analysis - LCOE & NPV heatmaps for stimulation costs + construction inflation
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docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md

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## Uncertainty & Sensitivities
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Given the methodological approach, including speculative estimation of some input parameters, and lack of real-world
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reference data for comparison, the case study results are subject to uncertainty. This case study does not attempt to
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quantify uncertainties, but sensitivity analysis may be included in future updates. Users may wish to perform their own
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sensitivity analysis using [GEOPHIRES's Monte Carlo simulation module](Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.html) or other data
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analysis
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tools.
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reference data for comparison, the case study results are subject to uncertainty. Users may wish to perform their own
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sensitivity analysis using [GEOPHIRES's Monte Carlo simulation module](Monte-Carlo-User-Guide.html) or other data analysis tools.
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### Stimulation & Construction Inflation Costs
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The following heatmaps visualize Electricity breakeven price (LCOE) and NPV sensitivity to stimulation cost and inflation costs during construction (a proxy for construction delays and cost overruns).
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Stimulation costs were tested from $2.3M/well (Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor = 0.5) to $9.2M/well (Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor = 2).
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Construction inflation costs were tested from $53.58M (Inflation Rate During Construction = 2.3%) to $340.13M (Inflation Rate During Construction = 14.6%).
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![](_images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-lcoe-heatmap_2025-08-13.png)
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![](_images/fervo_project_cape-4_stim-infl-npv-heatmap_2025-08-13.png)
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## References
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