Merge branch 'calibration_2026-01-14' into project-cape-mcy-and-res-eng-updates-2

Author: softwareengineerprogrammer

docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-5.md.jinja

@@ -94,15 +94,19 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs.
 ### Calibration with Fervo-implemented Field Design
 
 [Designing the Record-Breaking Enhanced Geothermal System at Project Cape](https://www.resfrac.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Singh-2025-Fervo-Project-Cape.pdf) (Singh et al., 2025)
-describes reservoir modeling (ResFrac) that informed the Cape Station field implementation.
+describes reservoir modeling (ResFrac) that informed the Cape Station field implementation[^field-implementation-configuration-note].
+
+[^field-implementation-configuration-note]: Note on Configuration: While the specific Bearskin and Gold pads (Phase II) utilize an inverted 2:3 ratio (3 injectors for 2 producers), this case study assumes the 3:2 ratio identified in the paper's optimization studies ("Study 1") represents the standard repeating module for the full-scale 400+ MWe system. The higher injector count in Phase II is interpreted as a transient requirement for field delineation and initial pressure support (boundary conditions) rather than the long-term commercial standard.
+
 An equivalent GEOPHIRES simulation was run using the case study's reservoir engineering parameters, with the following modifications to align with Singh et al.'s modeling scenario:
 
 {{ reservoir_engineering_reference_simulation_params_table_md }}
 
 The following table compares the average production temperature profile from the "700 ft bench spacing" scenario in Singh et al. with the GEOPHIRES simulation.
+Note that both figures show temperature in Fahrenheit rather than Celsius.
 
 {# @formatter:off #}
-| Fervo-implemented Design Simulation (Fig. 18.) | Case Study Equivalent Simulation |
+| Fervo-implemented Design Simulation (Fig. 18.) | Case Study Equivalent GEOPHIRES Simulation |
 |---|---|
 | <img src="_images/singh-et-al-2025_wht-700-ft-bench-spacing.png" class="no-active" /> | <img src="_images/singh_et_al_base_simulation-production-temperature.png" class="no-active" /> |
 {# @formatter:on #}
@@ -137,7 +141,7 @@ in source code for the complete results.
 | WACC | {{ wacc_pct ~ '%' }} | 8.3% | Fervo's target goal is to eventually achieve a "Solar Standard" WACC of 8.3% (Matson, 2024). |
 | Exploration Costs | {{ '$' ~ exploration_cost_musd ~ 'M' }} | {{ '$' ~ drilling_costs_per_well_musd*5 ~ 'M'  }} | 2024b ATB NF-EGS conservative scenario exploration assumption of 5 full-size wells (NREL, 2025). Case study result conservatively includes additional costs for geophysical survey, indirect costs, and contingency. |
 | Well Drilling and Completion Costs                                                                                                                                                                        | {{ '$' ~ drilling_costs_musd ~ 'M' }} total ({{ '$' ~ drilling_costs_per_well_musd ~ 'M/well' }})                                                                                                                                                                                                   | $<4M/well                                                      | Latimer, 2025.                                   |
-| Stimulation Costs                                                                                                                                                                                         | {{ '$' ~ stim_costs_musd ~ 'M' }} total ({{ '$' ~ stim_costs_per_well_musd ~ 'M/well' }})                                          | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025.                        |
+| Stimulation Costs                                                                                                                                                                                         | {{ '$' ~ stim_costs_musd ~ 'M' }} total ({{ '$' ~ stim_costs_per_well_musd ~ 'M/well' }})                                          | $4.65M/well | Based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025).                        |
 | Surface Power Plant Costs                                  | {{ '$' ~ surface_power_plant_costs_gusd ~ 'B' }}                                          |    |                         |
 | Field Gathering System Costs                                  | {{ '$' ~ field_gathering_cost_musd ~ 'M' }} ({{ field_gathering_cost_pct_occ ~ '%' }} of OCC)                                          | 2% of OCC | Matson, 2024.                        |
 | Overnight Capital Cost                             | {{ '$' ~ occ_gusd ~ 'B' }}                                                  |                                                    |                                             |
@@ -156,14 +160,14 @@ in source code for the complete results.
 | Bottom-hole Temperature (BHT) | {{ bht_temp_degc ~ '℃' }} | 200–241℃ | Fercho et al., 2024; Singh et al., 2025. |
 | Initial Production Temperature       | {{ initial_production_temperature_degc ~ '℃' }} | 196–208℃ | Approximate range of initial production temperatures between shallower and deeper producers (Singh et al., 2025).|
 | Average Production Temperature       | {{ average_production_temperature_degc ~ '℃' }} | 199–209℃ | Approximate range of thermally conditioned production temperatures between shallower and deeper producers (Singh et al., 2025).                                                                                                                         |
-| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | {{ max_total_generation_mwe }} MW                                   | 600 MW (10 × 60 MWe Gen 2 ORCs)   | Actual maximum total (gross) generation will be constrained by the combined nameplate capacity of modular power plants which are not individually modeled in this case study. A total of 8 60 MWe Gen 2 ORCs have been announced for Phase II; 3 from Turboden and 5 from Baker Hughes. This equates to 480 MW gross capacity for Phase II's 400 MW net capacity. An equivalent SOAK 500 MW project would therefore require 10 Gen 2 ORC units (Turboden, 2025; Jacobs, 2025). |
-| Minimum Net Electricity Generation   | {{ min_net_generation_mwe }} MW                                   | 500 MW                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | The announced upsizing to 500 MWe (Fervo Energy, 2025) is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation does not fall below 500 MWe. |
+| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | {{ max_total_generation_mwe }} MW                                   | 600 MW  | Combined nameplate capacity of 10×60 MWe Gen 2 ORCs. A total of 8×60 MWe Gen 2 ORCs have been announced for Phase II; 3 from Turboden and 5 from Baker Hughes (Turboden, 2025; Jacobs, 2025). This equates to 480 MW gross capacity for Phase II's 400 MW net capacity. An equivalent SOAK 500 MW project would therefore require 10 Gen 2 ORC units. (Note that the modular Gen 2 ORCs are not individually modeled in this case study, and are assumed to be combined into a single power plant). |
+| Minimum Net Electricity Generation   | {{ min_net_generation_mwe }} MW                                   | 500 MW                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | The announced 500 MWe capacity (Fervo Energy, 2025) is interpreted to mean that the PPA penalizes Cape Station if net electricity generation falls below 500 MWe. |
 | 2-year Average Net Power Production per Production Well | {{ two_year_avg_net_power_mwe_per_production_well }} MW | 7.6–11.5 MW | Figures 4 and 12 (Singh et al., 2025). |
-| Injection Pumping Parasitic Load (Average Pumping Power/Average Total Electricity Generation) | {{ parasitic_loss_pct ~ '%' }}  | Upper bound: 16.7% total on-site consumption (including injection pumping power) | Procurement of 480 MW of Gen 2 ORC units for 400 MW net capacity in Phase II allows for up to 80 MW on-site consumption (16.7%).  |
+| Injection Pumping Parasitic Load (Average Pumping Power/Average Total Electricity Generation) | {{ parasitic_loss_pct ~ '%' }}  | Upper bound: 16.7% | Procurement of 480 MW of Gen 2 ORC units for 400 MW net capacity in Phase II allows for up to 16.7% total on-site consumption (80 MW; including injection pumping power).  |
 | Average Net Electricity Generation   | {{ avg_net_generation_mwe }} MW |  |                                                                                                                                                           |
 | Maximum Net Electricity Generation   | {{ max_net_generation_mwe}} MW                                   |                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       |                                                                                                                                                           |
 | Number of times redrilling           | {{ number_of_times_redrilling }}            | 2–5                                  | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 |
-| Total wells drilled over project lifetime | {{ total_wells_including_redrilling }} | 320 total wells permitted by BLM | BLM, 2024. |
+| Total wells drilled over project lifetime | {{ total_wells_including_redrilling }} | 320 | Total wells permitted by environmental assessment (BLM, 2024). |
 {# @formatter:on #}
 
 
@@ -378,3 +382,5 @@ https://geoexpro.com/a-critical-look-at-fervo-dataset-suggests-lower-output/
 
 Yusifov, M., & Enriquez, N. (2025, July). From Core to Code: Powering the Al Revolution with Geothermal Energy.
 Project InnerSpace. https://projectinnerspace.org/resources/Powering-the-AI-Revolution.pdf
+
+---